Once it recovers from the sharp increase in uncertainty regarding trade policies and companies adapt to the new trading environment, the Mexican economy could expand by 1.3% in 2026 , the World Bank (WB) projected , which would mean a downward forecast compared to a previous estimate by the multilateral organization that pointed to a growth of the country’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of 1.4 percent.

According to the  World Bank’s World Economic Outlook report , Mexico’s GDP would grow by 1.8% in 2027.

The projections for Mexico occur in a context where the review of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) is on the horizon , as well as constant changes in global trade policy, derived from US tariffs.

Meanwhile, growth in Latin America and the Caribbean is expected to rise slightly to 2.3% in 2026 , “as trade tensions and the uncertainty they entail remain high and domestic demand remains low in some countries, which will partially offset the positive effect of the easing of financial conditions.”

According to the World Bank document, regional growth will consolidate at 2.6% in 2027, as trade flows recover and domestic demand improves.

For the Caribbean, the World Bank estimated that GDP will increase to 5.2% in 2026 and 6.6% in 2027 , driven by Guyana’s current oil boom. “Excluding Guyana, the subregion is projected to grow by around 2.9% and 3.7%, thanks to tourism and related services,” it stated.

In Central America, economic growth is projected to remain generally stable at 3.6% in 2026 and 3.7% in 2027. “According to projections, remittance flows will decline, negatively impacting economic activity. On the positive side, the subregion is expected to continue benefiting from resilient exports and growth in the United States.”

Regarding the US economy, the organization predicted growth of 2.2% for this year and 1.9% for 2027 .

In Europe and Central Asia, growth is projected to remain stable at 2.4% in 2026 before rising to 2.7% next year. According to the World Bank, GDP in East Asia and the Pacific will slow to 4.4% in 2026 and 4.3% in 2027. Meanwhile, South Asia is expected to grow by 6.2% this year and then potentially recover to 6.5% in 2027.

According to the analysis, global growth is estimated to remain stable over the next two years, with a slight drop to 2.6% in 2026 before increasing to 2.7% next year.

“The global economy is proving to be more resilient than anticipated, despite persistent trade tensions and policy uncertainty,” the report highlighted.

According to the World Bank, the easing of global financial conditions and fiscal expansion in several large economies should help cushion the slowdown.

“To avoid stagnation and unemployment, governments in emerging and advanced economies must vigorously liberalize private investment and trade, curb public consumption, and invest in new technologies and education,” stressed Indermit Gill, chief economist and senior vice president for Development Economics at the World Bank Group.

Mexico, which maintains close economic ties with the United States, is particularly vulnerable to new tariff increases , which could worsen if there were more trade restrictions stemming from the negotiation of the USMCA, which Donald Trump, the president of the United States, has long scorned.

Just last January 13, the White House occupant declared that the USMCA was “irrelevant” and insisted that the United States does not need vehicles made in the country, to which the president of Mexico, Claudia Sheinbaum, ruled out entering into debate in the morning conference this Wednesday, since both economies are very integrated .

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Confidence in transportation and logistics at the end of the second quarter of 2025 (2Q25) showed a constant decline and an unfavorable outlook , according to more than 140 executives and businesspeople involved in this industry who were surveyed for the Transportation and Logistics Confidence Index (ICTYL) , developed by T21 Business Intelligence.

Generated since the first quarter of 2018 (1Q18), the ICTYL is an indicator that shows the confidence of the transport and logistics sector, and which at the end of 2Q25 registered four consecutive quarters of decline, this time standing at 78.6 points (1Q18 = 100) .

Like the index, the confidence indicator is also experiencing one of its worst periods. This indicator, above zero, signals optimism; in Q2 2025, it stood at 3.30 points , the third-worst period in the 30 quarters evaluated.

Another fact that highlights the reality of companies in the transportation and logistics sector is the performance of their business during 2Q25, where 46.7% rated it as unfavorable, and while 53.3% considered it favorable, it is the second lowest level, only behind the second quarter of 2020 (2Q20), during the COVID-19 pandemic.

The same happened with the outlook for the third quarter of 2025 (3Q25), where more than 140 participants expressed that they have a 50% expectation for it to be favorable and the same 50% for it to be unfavorable .

ICTYL identified that for the business sector, the pace of the national economy and political uncertainty are the two factors that pose the greatest threat to their businesses.

Regarding the impact of the imposition of tariffs on their businesses, 40% identified the impact as moderate, while only 27% considered it to be significant and have had to modify their operations.

The ICTYL is the only confidence indicator in transportation and logistics that evaluates confidence in the most important business aspects every quarter.

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In the first quarter of 2025, the national economy grew 0.6% compared to the same period in 2024, according to data from the National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI) . This meager progress is combined with the Bank of Mexico’s (Banxico) forecast of a full-year Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth of just 0.1%.

At Zinergia ( number 8 in the Top 100 of Autotransporte® ), the reading of the market under these conditions led them to outline various strategies and alternatives that could address this situation to reduce the impacts, as Luis Morales, executive director of the company, commented in an interview.

“This situation is leading us not only to greater commercial efforts, but also to take care of our current customers and seek out new areas and market opportunities,” Morales commented.

In his view, there is still room to find these new business opportunities, and in this case, this has been achieved through a diversification strategy that began some time ago, not only in terms of the industries served, but also in finding new business models, new routes, ” or, with the current ones, starting to develop new transportation alternatives , and this has allowed us to maintain growth this year.”

For Zinergia’s CEO, a differentiator in these times when the market requires a rapid response and adaptation , in his case having a leasing company within the group, is a versatility that helps them have infrastructure tailored to the needs of their customers.

“Now we have refrigerated trailers, double trailers for some applications such as moving containers or platforms, in addition to the various applications we have for dry vans,” Morales emphasized.

This Zinergia chassis configuration is what makes it a market leader, particularly at times when efficiencies are needed and savings are sought in logistics operations.

In addition to being able to offer diversified solutions in terms of infrastructure and application portfolio, technological development helps them achieve greater operational efficiency, which translates into positive impacts for customers.

“Today, customers are also looking for transportation companies that can support cost-cutting initiatives , which can be achieved through productive efficiency, where technology allows us to identify these areas of opportunity,” Luis Morales emphasized.

According to the executive, the current situation is an ideal time for clients to be receptive and respond to transportation providers’ proposals, finding areas of increased productivity through collaborative work, which will translate into improved operational results.

“There’s been talk of many inefficiencies in the supply chain, in the loading and unloading of goods. Today, companies are more receptive to finding those areas of efficiency, especially now that they have more data on the operation,” Morales emphasized.

These actions have allowed Zinergia to maintain an average installed capacity of 94-95%, a result of commercial, operational, and customer engagement efforts.

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