The Mexican economy registered mixed results in the first quarter of 2026 (1Q26), marked by a drop in industrial activities , according to data published this Friday by the National Institute of Statistics and Geography (Inegi) .

In the January-March period of this year, and with seasonally adjusted figures,  the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) fell 0.6% on a quarterly basis , according to information from the agency.

In its annual measurement, Mexico’s GDP showed better results, increasing 0.4%  in real terms.

In the reference cycle, the GDP of primary activities , which include agriculture, mining and fishing, decreased by 1.7% quarterly.

Meanwhile, the  secondary sector , which includes manufacturing and construction, fell by 1% quarter-on-quarter. The tertiary sector , which includes services such as commerce, transportation, and communications, experienced a quarterly decline of 0.4%.

On an annual basis, the GDP of primary activities increased by 3%, that of secondary activities decreased by 1.1%, and that of tertiary activities advanced by 1.1 percent.

According to Inegi, the transport, postal and storage sector registered a positive variation in GDP , with an annual increase of 0.4% in Q1 2026.

“The Quarterly Gross Domestic Product offers, in the short term, a timely, complete and coherent view of the evolution of the country’s economic activities,” Inegi pointed out.

The GDP results for the first quarter of the year are in line with the Timely Estimate of Quarterly Gross Domestic Product (EOPIBT) , published on April 30 by Inegi, which projected a fall in the Mexican economy of 0.8% on a quarterly basis and an annual growth rate of 0.2%, although the figures released this Friday indicate adjustments: a quarterly decline of 0.6% and an annual increase of 0.4%.

According to Grupo Financiero BASE , the Mexican economy shows signs of being in a “stagnation trap” , caused by weakening institutions, increased informality, a drop in fixed investment and a decline in productivity.

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In the third quarter of 2025 (3Q25), Mexico’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) totaled  35.2 trillion pesos, representing a growth of 4.1% compared to the same period in 2024, the National Institute of Statistics and Geography (Inegi) announced this Thursday .

During the reference period, the  remuneration of salaried workers , by the income method, was the component that registered the greatest increase among productive agents, with an increase of 9.9% at an annual rate and an amount of 11 trillion pesos, which meant a participation of 31.4% of GDP.

According to the agency, the  gross operating surplus , that is, business profits, represented 39.6% of GDP in Q3 2025, with an annual growth of just 0.8 percent.

Gross mixed income ,  related to self-employed workers and small businesses, had a share of 21.6% of GDP in the comparison cycle, with a slight rebound at an annual rate of 0.4 percent.

Meanwhile, final consumption , measured by the expenditure method, was the component that sustained domestic demand with 29.3 trillion pesos, representing 83.3% of GDP in Q3 2025, and an annual growth of 4.6 percent.

Exports reached 13.6 trillion pesos during the period, representing 38.6% of GDP and a 6% increase compared to the third quarter of 2024 (3Q24), reflecting greater dynamism in Mexican foreign trade. Imports grew  5.9 % year-on-year, contributing 40.6% to GDP.

Meanwhile, gross fixed capital formation –investments in infrastructure, machinery and equipment– totaled 7.7 trillion pesos in the third quarter of 2025, although it registered a 4.9% drop compared to Q3 2024. This component accounted for 22% of GDP.

The quarterly Gross Domestic Product results, calculated using the income and expenditure approach , reflect the strength of domestic consumption , which is one of the driving forces of the Mexican economy.

According to estimates from BBVA Research , a moderate start to private spending is expected in 2026 , although a gradual recovery in consumption could be observed during the course of the year, “as the real wage bill strengthens and uncertainty related to US trade policies decreases.”

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In 2025, Mexico’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew 0.8% compared to 2024 , according to data from the National Institute of Statistics and Geography (Inegi)  released this Monday.

Meanwhile, in the October-December period of last year, with seasonally adjusted figures, GDP registered an increase of 0.9% on a quarterly basis and 1.8% on an annual basis in real terms.

This adjustment showed slight variations with the timely estimate projected by Inegi on January 30, in which it had estimated a quarterly increase of 0.8% and an annual increase of 1.6% for the Mexican economy in the fourth quarter of 2025 (4Q25).

By component, the quarterly performance was as follows: the GDP of secondary activities – made up of manufacturing and construction – as well as that of tertiary activities – such as transport, postal and storage services – advanced 0.9 percent .

Meanwhile, the Gross Domestic Product of primary activities, such as agriculture and livestock, fell 1.4% quarter-on-quarter in Q4 2025, according to statistics from Inegi.

At an annual rate, primary activities increased 7.8%, tertiary activities 2.1%, and secondary activities 0.3% in real terms in the fourth quarter of 2025.

IGAE logistics industry closes 2025 with progress

In December 2025, Mexican economic activity accelerated 0.4% month-on-month , according to the  Global Indicator of Economic Activity (IGAE) of Inegi, driven mainly by primary activities, such as agriculture.

On an annual basis, the IGAE registered a growth of 2.4% in the reference period.

During the cycle, primary activities advanced 6.5%, and secondary and tertiary activities each increased 0.2%, on a monthly basis. On an annual basis, primary activities increased 11.7%, tertiary activities 2.2%, and secondary activities 1.5%.

The transportation, postal, and warehousing sector saw a 1.5% increase  in December 2025 compared to the previous November. In its annual measurement,  Mexico’s logistics industry also showed positive figures, with 2%  growth   in activity, according to the IGAE (Global Indicator of Economic Activity).

According to the consulting firm KPMG , among the challenges that the Mexican economy will face by 2026 is managing the uncertainty derived from the review of the Treaty between Mexico, the United States and Canada (USMCA) , in a context of geopolitical tensions that could affect economic growth, put pressure on inflation and limit the benefits of nearshoring (relocation of production lines).

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Marcelo Ebrard, head of the Ministry of Economy (SE) , highlighted that the investment portfolio in Mexico has been increased , rising from 367.9 billion dollars (USD) to 406.8 billion dollars, resulting from the integration of strategic projects identified by the investment promotion committees in the 32 federal entities.

During the First National Investment Promotion Meeting , held this Wednesday, he said that one of the objectives is the joint work of the private sector with the public sector, and highlighted that just over a year after the launch of the Mexico Plan , the country has positioned itself as the main exporter to the United States.

In that regard, he added that Mexico pays the lowest tariffs among the United States’ trading partners. Regarding the Economic Development Hubs for Well-being , of the 14 planned, he specified that seven are already under construction, four will begin construction in the coming weeks, and three more will be added to the project.

Regarding industrial property , Ebrard indicated that the federal government will reduce delivery times from five years to one. He also specified that Nacional Financiera (Nafin) and the National Foreign Trade Bank (Bancomext) will allocate resources for innovation projects during 2026.

For his part, José Medina Mora Icaza, president of the Business Coordinating Council (CCE) , highlighted the infrastructure investment announced on February 3 by the federal government, which includes 5.6 trillion pesos from 2026 to the end of the current six-year term, 772 billion pesos for this year, “where there are eight strategic sectors, a little more than half in energy, because energy is the spearhead, we need energy so that investment arrives in other sectors, but also investment in highways, in health, in hospitals, in education.”

He emphasized that Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) as of September 2025 totaled 41 billion dollars, “a figure more or less similar to all of 2024, with one big difference: in 2024 there was only 7% new investment, while in the ninth month of last year it was 15%; this means that foreign companies are trusting in our country, they are betting on investing in Mexico.”

Altagracia Gómez Sierra, coordinator of the Advisory Council for Economic, Regional, and Relocation Development, said that Mexico must accelerate projects and strengthen public-private coordination to reach the investment target equivalent to 25% of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) . She emphasized that the Mexico Plan presented a national vision that seeks to empower Mexico through industrial policy, planning, and collaboration among businesses, academia, and government authorities.

He recalled the work that has been done with various federal government agencies to reduce red tape, provide energy certainty, increase national content in public procurement and combat smuggling, and highlighted advances in economic and commercial matters such as tax incentives for relocation, deductibility for technical education, development of industrial parks, and investments in housing.

Meanwhile, Roberto Lazzeri Montaño, CEO of Nafin and Bancomext, said that development banks not only provide financing, but also multiply the impact of every peso invested.

In that context, he pointed out that Nafin and Bancomext, together with commercial banks, will boost financing for micro, small and medium-sized enterprises (MSMEs), with guarantees on loans of up to 20 million for priority sectors of the Mexico Plan, up to 80% for first-time loans and a reduction in factoring financing costs.

She also announced the reinstatement of the 32 constructive councils and the relaunch of three programs to reach areas currently underserved by the financial sector. She stated that they are promoting specific programs for women entrepreneurs , specifically “women exporters, provided that up to 51% of the capital is owned by women and they control the formal businesses and micro-businesses. Up to three million pesos for entrepreneurs, 30 million pesos for exporters, and up to 500,000 pesos for micro-businesses with at least one year of operation.”

Similarly, the Impulsora de Innovación México (Mexico Innovation Promoter ) announced a program that is an implementation tool of the Mexico Plan, which coordinates financing, technical support, and co-investment schemes to mobilize public and private capital towards strategic sectors and projects with high economic impact at the technological level, which will mobilize a total investment of 1.6 billion pesos.

Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum emphasized the infrastructure investment she announced on February 3rd, “ which will allow us to boost investment in energy, highways, airports, ports, hospitals, and schools, enabling development with well-being .”

He also noted that on Wednesday he presented investments by Petróleos Mexicanos (Pemex) totaling 425 billion pesos. “ Pemex performed very well in 2025 thanks to various schemes that were also jointly developed between the Ministry of Energy and the Ministry of Finance and Public Credit (SHCP) . And this year, not only in oil but also in all aspects of oil processing and gas, we will boost investment in energy.”  

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The Mexican economy registered a  contraction in the third quarter of 2025 (3Q25), representing its first decline so far this year , marked by a decrease in industrial activities, according to data published this Friday by the  National Institute of Statistics and Geography (Inegi) .

In the July-September period of this year, and with seasonally adjusted figures, the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) fell 0.3% on a quarterly basis , according to information from the agency.

In its annual measurement, Mexico’s GDP also had negative figures, falling 0.2% in real terms.

During the reference period, the GDP of  primary activities , which include agriculture, mining and fishing,  grew 3.5% quarterly .

Meanwhile, the  secondary sector , which includes manufacturing and construction, declined  by 1.5%  quarter-on-quarter. The  tertiary sector , which includes services such as commerce, transportation, and communications, saw a quarterly increase of 0.2%.

On an annual basis, the GDP of primary activities increased by 2.9%, that of secondary activities decreased by 2.7%, and that of tertiary activities advanced by 1 percent.

In the first nine months of 2025, GDP advanced 0.4% compared to the same period in 2024.

According to Inegi, the transport, postal and storage sector registered a positive variation in GDP , with an increase of 0.2% in Q3 2025.

“The Quarterly Gross Domestic Product offers, in the short term, a timely, complete and coherent view of the evolution of the country’s economic activities,” Inegi pointed out.

The drop in GDP in the third quarter of the year is in line with the  Timely Estimate of Quarterly Gross Domestic Product (EOPIBT) , published on October 30 by Inegi, which projected a drop in the Mexican economy of 0.3% both quarterly and annually.

According to analysts, the uncertainty generated by the United States tariffs offers a low expectation of growth for the Mexican economy for the remainder of the year, which could extend into the beginning of 2026.

However, although the Mexican government anticipates favorable results by the end of this year, the possibility of a recession is once again generating concern among specialists, who see a fragile economic environment in the country, aggravated by external factors such as the global trade reconfiguration.

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El cargo Decline in industrial activity drags down the Mexican economy in Q3 2025 apareció primero en T21.