According to data from the First Government Report , domestic traffic ended the period with 16,232 tons compared to 20,945 tons in the previous period, a decrease of 22.5 percent .

Meanwhile, imports fell 0.8% , from 36,436 tons to 36,128 tons; while exports increased 0.4%, closing at 11,404 tons compared to 11,357 tons year-on-year.

Similarly, it was highlighted that during the aforementioned period, investment in railway infrastructure increased from 9.799 billion pesos (mdp) to 40.676 billion pesos , a 315% year-over-year increase.

During the first term of the current administration, led by Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum, 38.6 billion pesos in public investment were allocated to this area, compared to 7.77 billion pesos year-on-year.

Private investment, meanwhile, increased from 2.029 billion pesos to 2.071 billion pesos, a 2% increase over the same period.

In the railway sector, the First Government Report specified that the reactivation of the passenger train service was promoted with new routes that will add more than three thousand kilometers, integrated into projects such as the Mayan Train, the Interoceanic Train, the Mexico-Toluca Train and the Suburban Train to the Felipe Ángeles International Airport (AIFA ) .

In addition, the construction phase of the Mexico City-Pachuca, Mexico City-Querétaro-Irapuato, and Saltillo-Monterrey-Nuevo Laredo passenger trains began, and progress was made on strengthening the Isthmus of Tehuantepec Interoceanic Railway and the upcoming Mayan Train freight train.

“The Mexican government recognizes the need to consolidate an intermodal transportation infrastructure network that guarantees comprehensive connectivity throughout the national territory, its links to international markets, regional cohesion, and increases the country’s competitiveness through a more efficient, sustainable, and safe transportation system,” the document emphasized.

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According to the document, from October to December 2024, total trade in goods between Mexico and the United States was $196.334 billion , an increase of 4.8% compared to the same period in 2023; while trade with Canada was $8.335 billion, 1.3% higher than the same period in 2023.

These figures would reflect a good relationship and understanding between the countries that make up the trilateral trade agreement, but the reality is different.

Following Donald Trump’s return to the White House on January 20, a new era also began in trade relations between the three countries, marked by uncertainty and constant threats of imposing tariffs left and right on their regional partners, but also on the rest of the world.

In February 2025, Trump ordered 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada for failing to “curb drug trafficking and illegal immigration to the United States,” angering Canada, which also responded with tariffs against the United States. Mexico has been more measured in its decisions.

The First Government Report indicates that from October 2024 to June 2025 alone, trade in goods between Mexico and its northern neighbor totaled $640.078 billion, based on factors such as the implementation and strengthening of the USMCA, “Mexico’s macroeconomic stability, and institutional cooperation between both nations to resolve trade issues through existing collaboration mechanisms.”

Despite the positive figures generated by the USMCA, and the White House itself has acknowledged that it has been “very effective,” it has also accused its partners of “not respecting it,” issuing a warning: the agreement will soon be renegotiated to “adjust or terminate” it, which would change the rules of regional trade and also impact the logistics sector and supply chains .

Carlos Martner , coordinator of Integrated Transportation and Logistics at the Mexican Institute of Transportation (IMT) , considered that if the 30% tariffs had gone into effect on August 1, there would probably be a rearrangement of supply chains , as exports would decrease as a result of the imposition of this tax.

He explained that the tax would only apply to exports outside the USMCA and that approximately “84% of exports to the United States are subject to zero tariffs, which are part of those covered by the trade agreement.”

Although the USMCA has served as a protective mechanism against threats and impositions of tariffs on Mexico, such as the 50% tariff on steel and aluminum, and the 25% tariff on vehicles, Trump has maintained his warning.

“Mexico has maintained a strategic interest in strengthening the three countries’ work on the USMCA. However, changes in the administrations of the United States and, more recently, Canada, have impacted the dynamics of the work within the treaty’s committees and working groups,” the report noted.

The document added that Mexico has consolidated its position as the United States’ largest trading partner, surpassing Canada and China.

“This reflects the strength of the bilateral economic relationship and Mexico’s strategic role in regional supply chains.”

Given this, the question is: will Mexico be able to successfully complete the negotiations in the next revision of the USMCA despite Trump’s constant threats? We will have to wait until July 2026 or sooner. For now, the First State of the Union address offers a positive outlook, even if uncertainty persists.

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The roadmap aims to attract $270 billion in private investment, consolidate 15 Economic Development Hubs for Well-being, and generate 300,000 jobs during the six-year term.

Through this strategy, the government also seeks to transform Mexico into the world’s tenth largest economy , with a strengthened industry, employment, and reduced inequality.

One of the pillars of Plan Mexico is the Economic Development Hubs for Well-being, conceived as regional engines of growth. These hubs prioritize investment in strategic sectors such as agribusiness, automotive and electromobility, aerospace, pharmaceuticals, medical devices, chemicals, textiles and footwear, energy, the circular economy, and electronics .

According to the Report, 14 visits were made to federal entities in April and May 2025 to evaluate the feasibility of 24 initial proposals.

Following the inter-institutional review, 14 hubs with the greatest productive and territorial potential were selected on May 22, and the decree on tax incentives and the guidelines establishing the technical and fiscal criteria for their operation were published in the Official Gazette of the Federation (DOF) .

Legal instruments are currently being drafted to formalize the administration and coordination of the hubs, along with state governments and federal agencies.

The strategy also seeks to modernize business technology systems to streamline business formation.

In parallel, intellectual property enforcement was strengthened with 2,548 inspections , the seizure of more than one million pirated products, and the implementation of the “Operation Cleanup” strategy , with seizures equivalent to 885 million pesos (mdp) in illegal merchandise in Mexico City, the State of Mexico, Hidalgo, Nuevo León, Puebla, and the country’s northern border states.

Strengthening supply chains

On the other hand, the Mexican government has prioritized increasing domestic content in exports and local production . Between October 2024 and June 2025, diagnostics were conducted in sectors such as auto parts and semiconductors to identify constraints and propose industrial policy reforms.

Temporary tariffs were also applied to protect the textile industry and import restrictions were imposed under the IMMEX (Manufacturing, Maquiladora and Export Service Industry) program , canceling permits for companies that simulated exports worth 24 billion pesos.

In the automotive sector , Mexico expanded its exports to Argentina, reaching $773 million in the second quarter of 2025, more than double the previous year.

Likewise, micro, small, and medium-sized enterprises (MSMEs) have been a central part of Plan Mexico. Between October 2024 and June 2025, 540.516 billion pesos in financing was provided to 365,256 companies, and 38,071 training courses in business management and operational efficiency were provided.

The Mujer Exporta MX program connected 51 women-owned businesses with international buyers from Germany, Canada, and the United States, promoting inclusion in sectors such as agri-food and textiles.

Infrastructure and international cooperation

To improve productive connectivity, the government highlighted that 4.505 billion pesos were financed for roads and highways , in addition to 14.418 billion pesos for urban transportation such as lines 4, 5, and 6 of the Monterrey metro and Line 4 of the Guadalajara light rail.

In terms of cooperation, Mexico and Germany strengthened the Partnering in Business with Germany program, focused on the automotive and aerospace sectors, with 20 Mexican companies selected by 2025.

The Portfolio for Shared Prosperity recorded, as of June 2025, a total of 1,661 private investment projects totaling US$270,449 million, of which 372 faced 1,061 delayed procedures.

To date, according to the Mexican government, 170 have been resolved to streamline the investment environment.

Likewise, growth in the industrial warehouse sector reached 14.5% compared to 2023, with 72 new projects in the first half of 2025, mainly on the northern border and the Bajío automotive corridor, driven by the nearshoring phenomenon.

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The First State of the Union address of Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum Pardo left more questions than answers about the direction of port policy. While the administration boasts an investment of 5.4499 billion pesos in 40 maritime infrastructure projects at 11 ports across the country, the document lacks details on the progress and goals at key ports such as Manzanillo and Lázaro Cárdenas , which handle more than half of the containerized cargo entering and leaving Mexico.

The contrast is evident: the Report devotes space to describing the modernization of Salina Cruz —part of the Isthmus of Tehuantepec Interoceanic Corridor (CIIT) project and inherited from the previous administration—with technical data on the construction of a breakwater, supposedly “the largest in Latin America (1,600 meters long),” as well as dredging to increase the depth to 24 meters and the base width to 133 meters, thereby “expanding its capacity to accommodate 250,000-ton container ships and handle up to 1.4 million containers annually”; as well as plans for a container terminal with road and rail connectivity.

However, regarding Manzanillo and Lázaro Cárdenas, it merely includes them on a list of ports undergoing modernization, without specifying works, timelines, or additional capacity. In a context where both ports suffer from overcrowding and bottlenecks, this omission is not minor .

Old problems

T21 has reported that Manzanillo has been facing a critical scenario since mid-2025: a collapsed customs office, delays in dispatch appointments, and a labor blockade that worsened congestion in mid-May. Transporters have seen their productivity plummet, with lost trips due to long lines, and cost overruns that are passed on to the entire logistics chain . The country’s most important port, through which most of the goods from Asia enter, is operating at the limit of its capacity, with no immediate solutions from the federal government.

The report does not even mention the Cuyutlán or Nuevo Manzanillo port project , which is intended to address the port’s problems in the near future.

Lázaro Cárdenas, meanwhile, appears in the Report as a port “undergoing modernization,” but the reality is more complex. Customs inspections have been tightened with new X-ray equipment and a greater military presence, which strengthens security but also lengthens processing times and strains operational efficiency .

The gap between official rhetoric and the facts on the ground raises a major underlying question: Is it sufficient to list global investment amounts without detailing strategic projects in the most pressured ports?

The Sheinbaum administration appears to be repeating a pattern from previous reports: announcing investment figures and talking about modernization, without providing transparency on timelines or the additional capacity generated . Meanwhile, cargo continues to accumulate, carriers absorb cost overruns, and importers face uncertainty in logistics flows.

The underlying challenge is to prevent the investment narrative from obscuring the lack of immediate solutions for a port system that is currently teetering on the brink of collapse .

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