Trade policies have become one of the main factors redefining global trade. Beyond tariffs, governments are increasingly resorting to instruments such as import restrictions, subsidies, and other protectionist measures that alter the functioning of global supply chains , according to the World Trade Organization (WTO) .

In its most recent update of the Trade Policy Activity Index (TPA) , developed by the WTO and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) , it was indicated that trade regulatory activity continued to accelerate, reaching a new all-time high in early 2026 , the most pronounced since data collection began.

The indicator reflected that between January and May of this year, global trade policy activity nearly doubled its 2024 level and stood approximately 25% above its 2025 average, confirming that government intervention in international trade continues to intensify.

According to the document, this behavior reflects an increasingly frequent use of trade policy for objectives that go beyond the exchange of goods, such as industrial policy, economic security, and the protection of strategic sectors.

Economists from both organizations identified that the turning point began after episodes such as the US-China tariff escalation between 2018 and 2019, the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, and the Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2022. These factors were compounded by trade tensions during 2025, which continue this year.

One of the report’s main findings is the shift in the composition of trade measures. While actions aimed at facilitating trade—such as simplifying customs procedures or reducing barriers—have lost momentum in recent years (with the exception of the Strait of Hormuz crisis, where they accounted for more than two-thirds of all measures taken), restrictive actions have become more prevalent .

The study indicated that tariff increases, quantitative restrictions, import bans, and other trade control mechanisms are the main drivers of the growth observed in the index.

The increase in trade measures is no longer concentrated in the major economies . Although G20 countries continue to register the largest spikes in activity, this behavior has spread to smaller economies, reflecting a transformation of the global trade environment .

According to the report, trade policy activity is expected to continue increasing throughout the rest of 2026.

For companies linked to logistics, transport and foreign trade, this scenario implies a more complex regulatory environment, where the ability to adapt supply routes, diversify suppliers and respond to regulatory changes will be increasingly crucial to maintaining competitiveness.

Trade policy decisions no longer only affect market access, but also the configuration of supply chains, operational resilience, and foreign trade costs.

The analysis comes in a context where the United States has imposed tariffs of between 10% and 12.5% ​​on imports from 60 trading partners, including Mexico, under section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974 on forced labor, further complicating international trade.

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Mexico no longer competes solely on cost or location: it competes on the efficiency and resilience of its supply chains. Amid the rise of nearshoring and the pressure of increasingly demanding markets, logistics has ceased to be merely an operational link and has become a decisive factor in competitiveness.

For Sergio Morales , president of the Mexican Association of Logistics Operators (AOLM) , the country not only faces higher levels of operational complexity, but also a historic opportunity to consolidate itself as a key node in global trade.

“In a Mexico that is consolidating itself as a global logistics hub , our responsibility is clear: to be the strategic partner that drives competitiveness, guaranteeing more agile, secure, and technologically prepared operations for the future. That, in essence, is the mission we undertake every day,” he explains in an interview.

Added to this is the effect of nearshoring , which has placed Mexico in a strategic position within international flows.

In this context, the role of the logistics operator has evolved substantially. It is no longer simply about executing processes, but about enabling the competitiveness of companies. From highly regulated sectors like pharmaceuticals to industries like automotive, retail , and e-commerce , logistics has become a critical factor in ensuring operational continuity, efficiency, and regulatory compliance.

Morales sums it up clearly: the modern logistics operator designs comprehensive supply chain architectures , integrates technology, generates economies of scale, and transforms complexity into efficiency.

Given this scenario, the AOLM’s agenda under its new presidency will focus on three key areas : boosting the sector’s competitiveness, promoting professionalization and innovation, and strengthening collaboration between companies, industry, and authorities.

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Despite rising geopolitical tensions and signs of a global economic slowdown, global trade grew in the first six months of 2025, expanding by approximately $300 billion , according to the latest  World Trade Update published by the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) .

According to the report, global trade increased by nearly 1.5% in the first quarter of the year, with projections pointing to a 2% increase for the second quarter.

Services trade registered the largest increase, with 9% over the last four quarters, driven by a slight rise in goods prices, which boosted the value of trade, although trade volume grew only 1%.

Developed economies , the report noted, regained trade leadership in the first quarter of 2025, driven by a 14% increase in imports from the United States and a 6% increase in exports from the European Union.

In contrast, developing countries saw a 2% drop in imports, except for Africa, which saw 5% growth in exports and 16% year-on-year growth in intraregional trade.

Despite the positive signs, trade imbalances intensified . There was a larger deficit in the United States and growing surpluses in China and the European Union. Bilateral gaps also widened between the United States and its main partners, such as China, whose annual deficit was $360 billion, while with the European Union it was $276 billion, and with Vietnam, $116 billion.

Global trade challenges for the rest of 2025

The report noted that global trade will face increasing challenges in the second half of 2025 , amid persistent political uncertainty, geopolitical tensions, and signs of slowing global growth.

In this regard, he explained that new US tariffs, such as the base rates of 10% and 25% on steel and aluminum, have increased the risk of trade fragmentation . Although retaliation has been limited, the threat of an escalation of unilateral actions that could spread to other countries and destabilize supply chains persists.

The report also indicated that a strengthening of isolationist industrial policies is expected , especially in strategic and high-tech sectors, which could disrupt deeply integrated global production networks.

However, there are still signs of trade strength. Freight indices have recovered from their lows , regional integration is strengthening, and trade in services continues to grow.

According to UNCTAD, the key to sustaining this resilience will be “policy clarity, geoeconomic developments, and supply chain adaptability . ”

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GENEVA, CH.- The multilateral trade system is at a crossroads where failure to issue new rules that adapt to current trends and needs could erode and face negative consequences.

This is one of the arguments put forward by Luz María de la Mora, director of the Division of International Trade and Commodities of the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) , when she warns that “we are in a very profound economic transition . ”

“We want an orange (creative) economy, a blue economy (sustainable use, management and conservation of marine resources), a green economy (that reduces environmental risks). So all these economies are not fully reflected in trade rules today. And we need to find a way to get there,” he said in an interview with T21 within the framework of the World Trade Organization (WTO) Public Forum 2024, which is being held at its headquarters.

The international trade policy specialist explains that there is currently an environment of lack of credibility in trade and its results , given the inequality that still exists between developed and developing economies in terms of income, although she argues that this has not been generated by trade itself.

Rather, he says, the world has faced various situations such as financial crises that have resulted in greater polarization, higher cost of services, especially health, education and housing; and, most recently, the health crisis caused by Covid that generated an accelerated and prolonged process of inflation, along with imbalances between supply and demand.

“There were many macro imbalances and it would seem that the solution or the person responsible for all this is trade, because in the end these are global effects. We need, and from UNCTAD and the WTO as well, to put everything in its place, to carry out the analysis of what needs to be done and really put the trade issue, investment, but also the other policies, the public policies that have to do with the fiscal part, the financial part, transport, education, health (…) trade can be a very important development instrument, but countries have to be on board of that agenda, (however) countries do not have trade in their priorities,” he says.

At the Public Forum, the WTO itself sought to reinforce the message of the benefits that trade has generated for countries’ economies and the need to develop greater integration with the help of this organization. “Of course, the convergence that we saw with incomes between rich countries and poor countries was altered by the pandemic. And it took some parts of the world backwards,” WTO Director General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala told reporters this week.

Luz María de la Mora, former Undersecretary of Foreign Trade at the Ministry of Economy in Mexico, stresses that UNCTAD’s current work is to strengthen multilateralism and generate dialogue , “so that countries can have better information, to be able to sit down and talk. Because without information, if you don’t have really good analysis, good data, good evidence, then you start with a false diagnosis. And right now there are a lot of myths.”

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GENEVA, CH.- Trade multilateralism seeks to establish itself in today’s world as a promoter of prosperity, mainly for developing countries, at a time when societies experience disruptions in increasingly shorter periods that cause profound imbalances in global supply chains .

Eighty years ago, countries began to organize themselves to develop regulations that would govern the exchange of goods, while supporting the construction of peace by creating interdependence between them, which would lead to a lower possibility of armed conflict.

These efforts were embodied in the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade , the precursor to what is now known as the World Trade Organization (WTO) , the body that deals with the rules governing trade between nations, and which is on the eve of its 30th anniversary.

WTO Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala is aware of recent criticism of the role of global trade, but she is staunchly defending the results achieved since the creation of the organisation (1 January 1995).

“This system has created prosperity. More than 1.5 billion people [in the world] have been lifted out of poverty,” said Okonjo-Iweala, the first woman to head the WTO, at a press conference held at its headquarters.

Here he gave a preview of the results of the World Trade Report 2024 , which sought to demonstrate the correlation between countries with a weak participation in world trade and their limited economic progress, against those that have established an open-door policy in the global exchange of goods and have achieved faster growth.

The report says that thanks to trade, the share of people living in extreme poverty in low- and middle-income economies has fallen from 40% to around 11% since 1995, while the share of trade in these economies’ GDP has doubled from around 16% to 32%.

“We found that the more you can increase trade, the more likely it is to prosper (although) the convergence we saw with incomes between rich and poor countries was disrupted by the pandemic. And it pushed some parts of the world backwards,” he said.

The recent COVID-19 pandemic was a clear example of the fragility of trade when global production and the proper functioning of supply chains were interrupted. The results of this event have encouraged, among other trends, production lines to be relocated to consumption centers in countries that offer competitive advantages for companies.

Developing countries such as Mexico have attracted these investments, although they still have significant barriers to overcome in order to meet this demand for relocation, a trend also known as nearshoring.

“Developing countries have very high trade costs due to bureaucracy, lack of infrastructure, regulatory frameworks that are not adequate (…) one of the things we have to do if we want to be competitive and integrate is to reduce our trade costs significantly and the WTO actually has a Trade Facilitation Agreement that, when implemented, has shown that it will significantly reduce direct costs,” said Okonjo-Iweala.

Trends in trade

“How can we reimagine trade?” the WTO director-general asked. She herself replied that the trend in global trade is moving towards the exchange of digital services, given their high rate of growth – around 8% annually – and their capacity to create jobs.

Likewise, the future of trade is “green and inclusive” , meaning that while seeking to create renewable supply chains, they should also diversify towards regions in developing countries where a complete production cycle is developed, from obtaining raw materials to producing a final product.

“Supply chains have to be regional,” he said.

This Tuesday, September 10, the Public Forum 2024 will begin here in Geneva , under the title “Reglobalization: Better trade for a better world” , one of the largest events of the WTO, bringing together more than four thousand participants and where around 600 speakers from around the world will hold 135 working sessions to analyze and debate the trends and future of global trade. Grupo T21 is part of the group of media that the organization has invited to cover this important event.

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