Rising geopolitical tensions are testing the resilience and momentum shown by the global economy at the start of 2026, with a projected slowdown of 2.6% for this year. This is because rising energy prices, transport disruptions, market volatility, and the search for safe-haven financial assets will hinder investment and demand, warned the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) .

According to the report “Trade and Development Outlook 2026: The world economy faces a geopolitical challenge” , the United Nations agency noted that the world economy entered 2026 with resilience, supported by trade, industrial production in developing economies and investment linked to artificial intelligence (AI).

However, he warned that the global economy is moving from an initial phase of supply disruptions and inflation to a more fragile period , where prolonged uncertainty could trigger shortages and greater financial strain.

The analysis indicated that although recent years have been largely marked by trade tensions and political uncertainty, geopolitical risks are now becoming the main source of instability for the global economy.

In this context, developing economies are the most vulnerable , as they face rising fuel, food, and fertilizer prices, while also struggling with exchange rate pressures, tighter financing conditions, and lower investor confidence.

UNCTAD noted that much of the resilience observed in 2025 was due to the growing role of developing economies in trade. “Prolonged instability now threatens to undermine that momentum.”

The report noted that rising energy prices are driving up fertilizer prices and exacerbating food inflation in several developing economies.

“At the same time, volatility and tighter financing conditions are exposing the vulnerabilities of global food trading systems,” he stressed.

He warned that food security is no longer just about availability and prices. Increasingly, it is also a matter of financial stability, especially for governments already facing higher debt servicing costs.

Global merchandise trade remained relatively strong until early 2026, but much of the momentum was concentrated in AI-related products, such as semiconductors, servers, and data processing equipment . Outside of these sectors, trade growth remained much more cautious, particularly in traditional industries and commodity-related sectors.

UNCTAD predicted that global merchandise trade growth will slow from 4.7% in 2025 to between 1.5% and 2.5% in 2026 , as uncertainty and geopolitical tensions affect supply chains, shipping, and investment decisions.

Despite this environment, the organization urged ” strengthening international cooperation , achieving more predictable trade conditions, implementing greater financial safeguards for developing economies and accelerating investment in clean and affordable energy to stabilize growth and reduce vulnerability to future crises.”

The UNCTAD report comes amid tensions in the Middle East, which began on February 28.

Comment and follow us on LinkedIn:  @GrupoT21

El cargo Geopolitical tensions threaten global trade growth: UNCTAD apareció primero en T21.

The Mexican economy could grow by 1.6% this year, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) estimated , which would mean a gradual recovery amid a context marked by adjustments in public finances, high interest rates, an adverse international trade environment and geopolitical conflicts such as the one in the Middle East.

According to the World Economic Outlook report , the international organization indicated that Mexico will experience a slight economic recovery in 2026 after less dynamism in 2025.

By 2027, it projected a better environment for the Mexican economy, which could grow by 2.2% , but remaining cautious about an uncertain economic outlook, stemming from trade barriers and the conflict in the Middle East “which significantly counteracts favorable factors, due to its impact on commodity markets, inflation expectations and financial conditions.”

The IMF’s projections remain below the estimates of  Mexico’s Ministry of Finance and Public Credit (SHCP) , which forecasts growth of between 1.8% and 2.8% of the country’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP); while for 2027 it estimates that it will be between 1.9% and 2.9%, supported by consumption, employment and public and private investment in strategic sectors.

Under this scenario, the federal agency has indicated that the Mexican economy will resume a more dynamic trajectory in 2026 and 2027.

However, some indicators, which serve as a barometer for the Mexican economy, show no recovery. In this regard, although the Timely Indicator of Private Consumption (IOCP), prepared by the National Institute of Statistics and Geography (Inegi) , anticipated a 0.2% monthly increase in consumption for February 2026 and a 2.1% annual increase, Mexican household spending continues to be cautious.

And the global economy?

The IMF report estimated 2.3% growth for the US economy in 2026 and 2.1% for next year. For Canada , it forecasts 1.5% growth this year and 1.9% in 2027. China is projected to grow by 4.4% in 2026 and 4% in 2027.

The international organization  stressed that the international outlook remains subject to  risks and uncertainty , due to tensions in the Middle East and their potential effects on energy and financial markets, and therefore projected that the global economy will grow 3.1% this year and 3.2% in 2027 , below the average observed in the last two years (in 2025 alone it was 3.4%).

The forecast for 2026 has been revised downwards by 0.2 percentage points, and the forecast for 2027 shows no changes compared to the update of January 2026.

“The downward revision to 2026 is mainly due to disruptions stemming from the conflict in the Middle East, offset in part by the carryover effect of recent positive data and reduced tariff rates,” the report stated.

The IMF considered that geopolitical tensions could worsen further , potentially leading to an outbreak of internal political tensions.

“The factors of political tension can be complicated by changes in trade policies and other international policies. Regardless of how the geopolitical situation evolves, trade disputes could reignite,” he stressed.

The IMF report comes against a backdrop of rising commodity prices and more restrictive financial conditions that are testing global trade and economic resilience.

Comment and follow us on LinkedIn:  @GrupoT21

El cargo Amid global tensions, the IMF forecasts slight growth for the Mexican economy in 2026. apareció primero en T21.

Following an increase in trade due to advance purchases before the implementation of the new tariffs, the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) estimated that global trade growth during the first half of 2025 could fall from 4% to between 2.5% and 3%, “with a slowdown on the horizon . ”

According to the Trade and Development Report 2025 , global economic growth is also projected to slow to 2.6 percent in 2025 , down from the pre-COVID-19 pandemic trend of 3 percent.

UNCTAD’s analysis indicated that economies such as the United States and Europe are slowing down, as is China, while “across the global south, financial volatility and weaker external demand are putting pressure on investment and employment.”

Given this challenging global outlook, developing economies will drive almost 70% of global growth in 2025 , but face the greatest constraints in financing that growth, the organization explained.

Trade has become more sensitive to financial factors , such as fluctuations in interest rates or changes in investor confidence, which affects developing countries, as monetary volatility can make imports and debt repayment more expensive .

“Prices increasingly reflect speculative strategies, not supply and demand. When finance sets food prices, countries have more difficulty ensuring affordable and reliable supplies,” the organization stated.

The unusual situation of a weakening dollar while US Treasury bond yields rise could indicate lower short-term demand for US assets; however, the dollar’s dominance persists , as almost 90% of global foreign exchange trading (the buying and selling of currencies needed for global payments) involves the dollar.

“The dollar’s ​​influence goes far beyond central bank reserves or trade pricing. It affects who can access credit, where investment flows, and how quickly financial crises spread around the world,” the report explained.

UNCTAD highlighted that developing countries now account for more than 40% of global merchandise production and trade , and almost 60% of global Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) inflows , up from 22% in the mid-2000s.

“However, their participation in global financial markets remains low, at 25%, and has even decreased, a mismatch that limits their development. Excluding China, developing countries control only 12% of the value of the global stock market and 6% of the global bond market,” he noted.

The report warned that domestic financial markets have not kept pace, leaving many developing countries dependent on foreign banks and markets, “often with high and volatile interest rates.”

Given this scenario, the report stressed the need to build economies that can withstand shocks , adapt to transitions, and grow sustainably even under conditions of uncertainty.

In that regard, the analysis suggested reforming the global financial system to support climate-vulnerable countries; expanding regional financial cooperation; strengthening national financial ecosystems; addressing emerging financial risks beyond the banking sector; and promoting “networked multilateralism,” UNCTAD concluded.

According to the United Nations report , the projected global economic slowdown by 2025 would be driven by increasing volatility in financial markets and geopolitical uncertainty , factors that are putting pressure on trade and investment worldwide.

Comment and follow us on X:  @GrupoT21

El cargo UNCTAD projects a slowdown in the global economy and trade by 2025 apareció primero en T21.

Faced with a challenging supply chain landscape, where geopolitical tensions are putting increasing pressure on decision-makers, a KPMG study has highlighted that CEOs are increasingly less confident in the global economy.

According to the KPMG CEO Outlook 2024 , 72% of CEOs were optimistic about the economy, compared to 93% in the 2015 edition, the year the survey was first conducted.

The study also highlights that, given the complexities generated by various events around the world, as well as the variety of demands, 72% indicated that they feel pressured to maintain the prosperity of their business in the long term, above all they are concerned about the impact of supply chain interruptions and operational problems due to the growth of their businesses.

According to KPMG’s study, over the next three years, respondents’ top operational priorities will be advancing digitalization and connectivity across their business (18%), understanding and implementing generative artificial intelligence (AI) across the company and upskilling their workforce (13%); and executing ESG initiatives (13%).

In this sense, the survey also highlights that for CEOs technological innovation has also meant business disruption as one of the three main growth risks.

For this reason, 64% say they would invest in AI regardless of economic conditions, recognizing the need to take advantage of it for a challenging horizon, which does not mean a negative impact on the workforce , since 76% of managers indicated that this technology will not fundamentally reduce the number of jobs within their organizations, however, a certain adaptability is required in their staff.

Comment and follow us on X: @jenna_GH_ / @GrupoT21

El cargo CEOs See Greater Challenges for Supply Chains: KPMG apareció primero en T21.

China, India, Brazil and South Africa are among 108 countries that face serious challenges that could impede their transition to high-income economies in the coming decades , according to a new World Bank study .

El cargo A hundred countries face obstacles to achieving high-income economies apareció primero en T21.