The reconfiguration of global trade has favored Mexico as an investment destination, but the growing dependence on the US market and the advance of Asia as a strategic supplier pose new challenges to the competitiveness and resilience of supply chains .

Given this scenario, companies are modifying their strategies to reduce risks and ensure operational continuity in an environment marked by geopolitical tensions, changes in trade policies, and economic uncertainty stemming from US tariffs.

This was pointed out by Carlos Kuriyama, director of the Policy Support Unit of the APEC Secretariat ( Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation Forum ), who explained that, since the mid-2010s, a process of productive reconfiguration began that has led companies to diversify their operations and seek new locations for manufacturing and investment.

According to the expert, Southeast Asia and Mexico have been the main beneficiaries. Countries such as Vietnam, Malaysia, Indonesia, Singapore, and Thailand, among others, have captured a significant portion of the investment flows seeking alternatives to China; while Mexico has strengthened its position thanks to its proximity to the United States.

This trend is reflected in investment flows. By the end of 2025, Mexico had received $40.871 billion in Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) , representing a 10.8% increase compared to the FDI received in 2024, primarily in manufacturing, thus consolidating its position as one of the leading recipients of productive capital among developing economies.

However, Kuriyama cautioned that the international context is changing again. The uncertainty stemming from new trade policies and tariff measures could pose challenges for economies highly integrated into a single market.

In that regard, he emphasized that one of Mexico’s main challenges will be to diversify its trade relations . Currently, more than 80% of Mexican exports go to the United States, a concentration that exposes the country to risks stemming from regulatory or trade changes in its main economic partner.

In March 2026 alone, the value of trade between Mexico and the United States reached $83,978.6 million, an 8.6% increase compared to March 2025.

According to Kuriyama, while exports continue to depend on North America, imports show a different dynamic. The specialist believes that Mexico has increased its purchases of components, supplies, and technology from Asia, driven by the competitiveness of suppliers in that region in terms of cost, quality, and availability.

This situation poses an additional challenge for companies based in the country: maintaining compliance with the rules of origin established in the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) to retain preferential access to the U.S. market, without giving up the competitive advantages offered by sourcing from Asia.

In an interview with T21, Kuriyama emphasized that Mexico’s geographic location represents a strategic advantage that can be better leveraged. Connectivity to both the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans opens opportunities to expand markets and strengthen trade ties beyond North America .

This evolution is also transforming how supply chains operate. The just-in-time model , which prioritizes minimal inventory and efficient sourcing, is giving way to more flexible, resilience-oriented systems.

According to the APEC executive, more and more companies are incorporating redundancy into their supply chains and maintaining higher inventory levels to reduce the risk of production disruptions due to geopolitical conflicts , trade restrictions, or logistical problems.

“We are evolving from a just-in-time system to a just-in-case system ,” Kuriyama summarized, describing the need for safety margins that allow for responding to unexpected scenarios.

Resilience has become a central factor in corporate decision-making. The rise of nearshoring (relocation of production lines) and the search for more secure supply chains have contributed to Mexico registering record levels of FDI.

Regarding trade policy, Kuriyama maintained that economic openness remains a fundamental condition for strengthening competitiveness . In his opinion, international trade requires a flow where exports and imports complement each other within increasingly integrated value chains.

The specialist warned that the increase in tariffs generates higher costs for companies, by making inputs and components more expensive, and these increases are passed on to final consumers through higher prices.

In a scenario where, according to the executive, Asia is gaining relevance as a global supplier and companies are seeking to reduce operational risks, Mexico faces the opportunity to consolidate itself as a strategic hub between North America and the Asia-Pacific region. To achieve this, trade diversification, logistical integration, and economic openness will be key factors.

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The Mexican economy could grow by 1.6% this year, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) estimated , which would mean a gradual recovery amid a context marked by adjustments in public finances, high interest rates, an adverse international trade environment and geopolitical conflicts such as the one in the Middle East.

According to the World Economic Outlook report , the international organization indicated that Mexico will experience a slight economic recovery in 2026 after less dynamism in 2025.

By 2027, it projected a better environment for the Mexican economy, which could grow by 2.2% , but remaining cautious about an uncertain economic outlook, stemming from trade barriers and the conflict in the Middle East “which significantly counteracts favorable factors, due to its impact on commodity markets, inflation expectations and financial conditions.”

The IMF’s projections remain below the estimates of  Mexico’s Ministry of Finance and Public Credit (SHCP) , which forecasts growth of between 1.8% and 2.8% of the country’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP); while for 2027 it estimates that it will be between 1.9% and 2.9%, supported by consumption, employment and public and private investment in strategic sectors.

Under this scenario, the federal agency has indicated that the Mexican economy will resume a more dynamic trajectory in 2026 and 2027.

However, some indicators, which serve as a barometer for the Mexican economy, show no recovery. In this regard, although the Timely Indicator of Private Consumption (IOCP), prepared by the National Institute of Statistics and Geography (Inegi) , anticipated a 0.2% monthly increase in consumption for February 2026 and a 2.1% annual increase, Mexican household spending continues to be cautious.

And the global economy?

The IMF report estimated 2.3% growth for the US economy in 2026 and 2.1% for next year. For Canada , it forecasts 1.5% growth this year and 1.9% in 2027. China is projected to grow by 4.4% in 2026 and 4% in 2027.

The international organization  stressed that the international outlook remains subject to  risks and uncertainty , due to tensions in the Middle East and their potential effects on energy and financial markets, and therefore projected that the global economy will grow 3.1% this year and 3.2% in 2027 , below the average observed in the last two years (in 2025 alone it was 3.4%).

The forecast for 2026 has been revised downwards by 0.2 percentage points, and the forecast for 2027 shows no changes compared to the update of January 2026.

“The downward revision to 2026 is mainly due to disruptions stemming from the conflict in the Middle East, offset in part by the carryover effect of recent positive data and reduced tariff rates,” the report stated.

The IMF considered that geopolitical tensions could worsen further , potentially leading to an outbreak of internal political tensions.

“The factors of political tension can be complicated by changes in trade policies and other international policies. Regardless of how the geopolitical situation evolves, trade disputes could reignite,” he stressed.

The IMF report comes against a backdrop of rising commodity prices and more restrictive financial conditions that are testing global trade and economic resilience.

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Geopolitical tensions, changes in supply chains, and increasing pressure from fragmentation in the world, among other factors, could cause a slowdown in global trade during 2026 , which will affect developing economies the most, projected the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) .

According to the latest World Trade Update (January 2026) , the United Nations agency highlighted the trends that will prevail in the global exchange of goods this year.

In that regard, he estimated that global economic and trade  growth  will remain moderate, at around 2.6% in 2026 , while growth in developing economies, excluding China, will slow to around 4.2%. This will hit developing countries hard, which will be constrained by the slowdown in infrastructure investment and industrialization. “Stronger regional trade and diversification will be crucial to building resilience.”

“Preserving special and differential treatment remains fundamental to boosting industrialization and food security. Decisions on agriculture, digital trade, and climate-related measures will determine whether global rules support development,” he emphasized.

The analysis revealed that increased protectionism can generate more political uncertainty . Global tariffs increased in 2025, driven primarily by measures implemented by the United States, with the manufacturing sector being the most affected. Governments are expected to continue using tariffs in 2026 to achieve industrial and strategic objectives . The report noted that smaller and less diversified economies will be the most exposed to rising costs and trade volatility.

Another trend identified by UNCTAD is that almost two-thirds of global trade takes place in value chains that are being transformed by geopolitical tensions , industrial policy, and new technologies. Companies are diversifying their suppliers and relocating production closer to key markets to reduce risk.

“Countries with strong infrastructure, skills, and stable policies are better positioned to attract investment. More peripheral economies risk being left behind unless they improve logistics, skills, and the investment climate,” he explained.

He also noted that service exports currently represent 27% of world trade and grew by around 9% in 2025 , surpassing goods exports, with digital services largely driving this increase.

The analysis highlighted an increase in South-South trade, where developing countries are driving the growth of global exports.

“South-South merchandise exports increased from around $0.5 trillion in 1995 to $6.8 trillion in 2025. Today, 57% of developing countries’ exports go to other developing markets, led by Asia’s regional value chains,” he stressed.

He highlighted that Africa and Latin America are also strengthening South-South ties. “Deeper intraregional trade can help offset lower demand in advanced economies and boost resilience.”

Another trend is that environmental commitments are increasingly influencing trade as climate pledges move from ambition to implementation . “By the end of 2025, pledges from 113 countries could reduce emissions by approximately 12% by 2035.”

It also identified that oversupply of critical minerals and geopolitics can destabilize global trade and value chains, and stressed that agricultural trade will remain fundamental to food security.

Finally, he noted that trade regulations have tightened, and that national policies are reshaping global trade. “Since 2020, around 18,000 new discriminatory trade measures have been introduced. Technical regulations currently affect approximately two-thirds of global trade.”

2025 was marked by trade and geopolitical tensions that, according to analysts, will continue this year, which will continue to impact global trade, especially due to the United States’ tariff measures.

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Despite rising geopolitical tensions and signs of a global economic slowdown, global trade grew in the first six months of 2025, expanding by approximately $300 billion , according to the latest  World Trade Update published by the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) .

According to the report, global trade increased by nearly 1.5% in the first quarter of the year, with projections pointing to a 2% increase for the second quarter.

Services trade registered the largest increase, with 9% over the last four quarters, driven by a slight rise in goods prices, which boosted the value of trade, although trade volume grew only 1%.

Developed economies , the report noted, regained trade leadership in the first quarter of 2025, driven by a 14% increase in imports from the United States and a 6% increase in exports from the European Union.

In contrast, developing countries saw a 2% drop in imports, except for Africa, which saw 5% growth in exports and 16% year-on-year growth in intraregional trade.

Despite the positive signs, trade imbalances intensified . There was a larger deficit in the United States and growing surpluses in China and the European Union. Bilateral gaps also widened between the United States and its main partners, such as China, whose annual deficit was $360 billion, while with the European Union it was $276 billion, and with Vietnam, $116 billion.

Global trade challenges for the rest of 2025

The report noted that global trade will face increasing challenges in the second half of 2025 , amid persistent political uncertainty, geopolitical tensions, and signs of slowing global growth.

In this regard, he explained that new US tariffs, such as the base rates of 10% and 25% on steel and aluminum, have increased the risk of trade fragmentation . Although retaliation has been limited, the threat of an escalation of unilateral actions that could spread to other countries and destabilize supply chains persists.

The report also indicated that a strengthening of isolationist industrial policies is expected , especially in strategic and high-tech sectors, which could disrupt deeply integrated global production networks.

However, there are still signs of trade strength. Freight indices have recovered from their lows , regional integration is strengthening, and trade in services continues to grow.

According to UNCTAD, the key to sustaining this resilience will be “policy clarity, geoeconomic developments, and supply chain adaptability . ”

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The supply chain faces various risks that can be grouped into geopolitical ones, the restructuring of chains and climate change that is increasingly becoming more relevant in the logistics sequence; These variants affect the price of the services.

SungGon Kim, Cello Square Operations Head of Samsung SDS, said that the situation faced after COVID-19 and trade wars, such as what is happening between the United States and China, are putting pressure on the supply chain.

In front of an audience where customers and suppliers of Samsung SDS were present, Kim explained that when it comes to the restructuring of supply chains, they are motivated by policies of nationalism and diversification in the various modes of transportation that are being implemented. they have had to employ.

In the last point of climate change, it not only affects logistics due to the pressure of natural phenomena that motivates us to have agile solutions to react to these situations, but also because the measurement of the carbon footprint is increasingly constant.

This scenario is where Cello Square provides comprehensive operation services in the supply chain in all sectors, based on logistics innovation platforms.

Among the visibility that can be found with Cello Square are freight forwarding , distribution and storage operations , as well as logistics projects.

Currently Samsung SDS provides logistics services to more than two thousand clients in 25 diverse business segments. Of their total income, 95% are generated outside of South Korea, out of a total of just over $5.4 billion they generated in the last fiscal year. While by number of clients, 82% are outside the country of origin.

Through Cello Square, Kim explained, digital transformation is driven by internalizing logistics operational knowledge to increase scalability and increase agility with data.

Among the benefits is operational efficiency, through optimizing operations for international transportation and storage.

By expanding digital solutions, logistics information can be delivered directly into the hands of customers, while integrating a wide range of field-proven automation technologies.

Kim shared that in response to the goal of hyperautomation, he launched Cello Square Logistics Service in the  GPT store , so that artificial intelligence (AI) is used to achieve greater efficiencies, such as determining the number of containers to use for export activities. or import.

To address the climate change agenda, Cello Square has a dashboard to measure or identify the carbon footprint of logistics services.

José Enrique Fable, commercial director of Samsung SDS Mexico, said that among the advantages of the digital platform are being able to access the quote online and in real time. In addition, there is online document management.

This form of operation, Fabela highlighted, allows for real visibility in all phases of the process, while allowing analysis based on data, as well as forecasts in the logistics operation.

Globally, Samsung SDS operated more than 210 thousand tons of air cargo, more than 740 thousand maritime containers, 440 thousand tons of motor transportation and managed a space of 2.56 million square meters of warehouses.

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The financial results disclosed by the CMA CGM Group for the first quarter of this year (1Q24) reflect the impacts of geopolitical tensions, especially in the Red Sea area where shipping lines are facing operational complications in navigating the Suez Canal, thus forcing them to take longer routes in their transoceanic services.

“After the market conditions deteriorated in the fourth quarter of 2023, the first quarter of 2024 was marked by a resurgence in spot transportation rates, primarily due to disruptions in the Red Sea region. The resulting longer travel times through the Cape of Good Hope have affected available shipping capacity amid a rebound in demand,” according to the quarterly report of the French-origin logistics integrator.

For 1Q24, the group generated revenues of $11.834 billion, a 7% decrease compared to the same quarter last year. Likewise, EBITDA totaled $2.390 billion, representing a decline of 30.3%, while the EBITDA margin stood at 20.2%, down by 6.8 points.

Similarly, the net income for the quarter stood at $785 million, marking a 61% decrease compared to the same quarter of 2023.

These group results contrast with the annual increase of 11.7% in the transportation of 20-foot containers (TEU), which reached 5.6 million during 1Q24.

“The increase is due to higher-than-expected global merchandise trade and freight transportation demand, driven by a consumption rebound and inventory rebuilding following the lows of 2023,” according to CMA CGM.

Meanwhile, the consolidated revenues of CMA CGM’s maritime transportation operations division amounted to $7.9 billion during the quarter, an 11.4% year-on-year decrease. EBITDA amounted to $1.9 billion, down by 35.8% compared to the first quarter of 2023. The EBITDA margin was 24.8%, 9.4 points lower. Average revenues per TEU stood at $1,400, a 20.7% year-on-year decrease.

In its logistics division, revenues reached $3.887 billion in the first quarter of the year, just 0.6% above 1Q23. EBITDA stood at $361 million, a 6.9% increase compared to the first quarter of 2023.

During the first quarter, the group’s logistics activities were particularly driven by the consolidation of Bolloré Logistics as of February 29 and by the momentum of Contract Logistics, Finished Vehicle Logistics, and Land Transport, especially in Europe.

Additionally, revenues from other activities (port terminals, CMA CGM Air Cargo, media, etc.) increased by 45.4% to $600 million. EBITDA increased by 43.6% to $79 million, driven by the inclusion of Port Liberty in the consolidation scope and the recovery of terminal business volumes.

CMA CGM indicated that uncertainties in the macroeconomic and geopolitical environment could continue to cause fluctuations in the transportation and logistics market, affecting its fluidity and seasonality.

Moreover, it is expected that the commissioning of new constructions will continue to outpace forecasted demand, ultimately affecting the balance between supply and demand and, by extension, freight rates.

In this environment, it asserted that cost control, punctuality, and the level of service provided to its customers will be essential drivers of competitiveness and differentiation.

“In a context of industry normalization, our group has demonstrated its agility and resilience to adapt to the new market conditions. Our shipping division achieved solid performance, driven by restocking in China and the United States. As for our logistics business, the acquisition of Bolloré Logistics gives us the critical mass we need to better withstand cyclical changes. In 2024, a year that remains uncertain due to the crisis in the Red Sea, CMA CGM will continue to meet the needs of its customers as effectively as possible. We will stay the course with our strategic investments, whether in decarbonization or artificial intelligence,” according to Rodolphe Saadé, Chairman and CEO of the CMA CGM Group.

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