“I expected the increase to be phased in over two periods, but they raised it all at once by 10% in the first half of the year, and I told my operator, ‘You can’t raise it again in the second half of the year, I just can’t take it anymore.’” The voice of a transportation user encapsulates a pressure that has ceased to be exceptional and has become a constant: the direct impact of geopolitics on logistics costs and business operations in Mexico.

What until a few years ago was perceived as distant conflicts —particularly in regions like the Middle East— now has concrete effects on the cost structure of supply chains .

Geographical distance is no longer a buffer; in an interconnected environment, any tension translates into immediate adjustments in prices, routes and availability of inputs.

In this new global landscape, geopolitical conflicts have ceased to be isolated events and have become catalysts for economic transformations . As Sergio Hernández, president and CEO of CIAL Dun & Bradstreet in Mexico, warns, “geopolitical conflicts are generating greater fragmentation of global trade and a regionalization of supply chains.”

One of the most immediate transmission channels is the energy market. The rise in oil prices—driven by international tensions, according to the Mexican Institute for Competitiveness (IMCO) —has a dual effect for Mexico: it increases oil revenues, but at the same time raises the cost of containing gasoline prices through tax incentives.

In scenarios like the current one, that benefit can be diluted, as already happened in 2022 with the subsidy to the Special Tax on Production and Services (IEPS).

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The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) warned that increased volatility and fragmentation of trade policies are weakening the conditions of stability on which developing countries depend to expand their exports, attract foreign investment and diversify their economies .

In its most recent World Trade Update , the international organization detailed that trade rules have become less predictable .

“Countries are increasingly using discriminatory trade measures such as tariffs, investment controls and technological restrictions linked to industrial policy, national security and geopolitics ,” he said.

For developing countries, such conditions can be detrimental, as many of these nations rely on a limited range of exports and have little capacity to absorb economic shocks.

According to the analysis, despite the current adverse environment, trade continues to be an essential driver for developing countries – known as South-South trade – which has expanded rapidly within the framework of the multilateral trading system,  going from $500 billion in 1995 to $6.8 trillion in 2025 .

However, participation remains uneven: the least developed countries account for only 1.1% of global exports , far from the 2% target set for 2030, despite preferential access regimes.

Given this situation, the organization stressed the urgent need to restore certainty to trade rules . A system based on clear and stable rules is key for smaller economies to integrate into global value chains and attract investment.

The World Trade Organization ‘s (WTO) dispute settlement mechanism remains a fundamental tool: since 1995, 644 disputes have been registered, which led to the creation of 378 panels – independent teams of specialists who examine trade disagreements and issue rulings.

“Restoring a fully functional dispute settlement system is essential to maintaining fairness and predictability in global trade,” the UN agency’s report stated .

He also pointed out that services, digital technologies and the green transition are increasingly important sources of economic growth, although many developing countries remain on the sidelines of these sectors.

For example,  least developed countries account for less than 1% of global services exports . Between 2014 and 2024, their services exports grew by only 3% annually, compared to 5.3% globally, revealing the barriers they face in participating in the global services economy.

“Clearer multilateral rules in areas such as digital trade, financial services and professional services would also help ensure that developing economies can participate in these emerging sectors,” UNCTAD explained.

The report concludes that strengthening the multilateral trading system is not only an institutional necessity, but an indispensable condition for inclusive and sustainable development .

Strengthening international cooperation and ensuring the full participation of developing countries in new areas of trade will be crucial to sustaining global economic growth and expanding opportunities in an increasingly uncertain environment, marked by constant tariff changes and conflicts such as the one in the Middle East.

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The escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are already beginning to reshape the operational decisions of the global maritime industry. Recent attacks on merchant ships in the Strait of Hormuz by Iran—resulting in at least one death and several injured sailors—have raised alarms among international organizations and the world’s leading shipping companies, which have opted to suspend bookings, limit operations, and reinforce security protocols in the region.

From the International Maritime Organization (IMO) , its Secretary-General, Arsenio Domínguez, issued a direct call for restraint. “I am deeply concerned by reports of at least one fatality and several seafarers injured in attacks on merchant ships. No attack on innocent seafarers or civilian vessels is justified. These crews are simply doing their jobs and must be protected from the effects of broader geopolitical tensions,” he stated in an official declaration.

The IMO chief’s stance went beyond condemnation. He reiterated that “freedom of navigation is a fundamental principle of international maritime law and must be respected by all parties without exception.” In that context, he urged extreme caution: “I am closely monitoring the situation and urge all shipping companies to exercise extreme caution. Where possible, vessels should avoid transiting the affected region until conditions improve .”

Alongside the operational call, Domínguez warned about the risks of misinformation in conflict zones. “I also urge all stakeholders to remain vigilant against disinformation and to rely only on verified and authoritative sources when making navigational decisions.” He emphasized the human aspect of the crisis: “My condolences go out to the injured seafarers and their families. Their safety and well-being are our highest priority, and the IMO will continue to work closely with Member States and partners to promote safe navigation and uphold the principle that civilian seafarers should never come to harm.”

Shipping companies back down

While the regulatory body strengthens the framework of principles, shipping companies have begun to translate the uncertainty into concrete decisions. The French company CMA CGM announced the immediate suspension of bookings for shipments of dangerous goods originating from or destined for a broad list of Middle Eastern countries, including Iraq, Bahrain, Kuwait, Yemen, Qatar, Oman, the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Egypt (Port of Ain Sokhna), Djibouti, Sudan, and Eritrea . “The decision was made to ensure cargo integrity, equipment positioning stability, and overall operational safety under the current circumstances,” the company stated, adding that it will issue further notices regarding dangerous goods containers already on board or ready for loading.

Similarly, Ocean Network Express (ONE) suspended new bookings to and from the Persian Gulf. “ ONE is taking precautionary measures to protect our seafarers, vessels, shore personnel, and our customers’ cargo. Safety and operational integrity remain our top priorities,” the Japanese company stated.

He clarified that “we are carefully evaluating the situation for cargo currently in transit or scheduled shipments, trip by trip. Updated information will be provided to affected customers as operational plans are reviewed and adjusted as needed.”

For its part, Mediterranean Shipping Company (MSC) suspended all cargo bookings to the Middle East as a preventative measure in response to the deteriorating regional security situation following the coordinated US-Israeli attack on Iran. The shipping company reiterated that the safety of its crews is its top priority and that the measure will remain in place until conditions allow for the resumption of normal operations, in coordination with the relevant authorities.

The reaction also reached Cosco Shipping Lines , which did not announce a total suspension, but rather a package of operational measures for navigation through the Strait of Hormuz. “Given the continuously evolving security situation in the Middle East and the restrictions on maritime traffic in the Strait of Hormuz, Cosco Shipping Lines is closely monitoring the situation in the region and maintaining close communication with the relevant authorities and security agencies,” the company stated.

Among the guidelines, it stated that “vessels that have entered the Persian Gulf must, after completing their berthing and operations in their designated ports, remain or anchor in safe waters, provided it is safe to do so.” It also instructed that “vessels heading to the Persian Gulf should pay attention to navigational safety and take measures such as reducing speed, proceeding to safe waters, or adopting designated protected anchorages, while awaiting further instructions .” The company added that “we are evaluating all options for the subsequent handling of the cargo on board (including possible alternative ports of discharge) and will strictly comply with the relevant provisions in the terms and conditions of our bill of lading.”

The implications of these decisions are significant. In addition to the suspensions, other major shipping lines such as Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd have also suspended operations, demonstrating that the Strait of Hormuz—a key artery for energy and container trade—has once again become a focal point of maritime geopolitics. In a sector where operational continuity is synonymous with competitiveness, the immediate priority has shifted: today, more than speed or capacity, the watchword is safety.

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