Kenneth Smith, president of the Mexico-United States Bilateral Business Committee of the Mexican Business Council for Foreign Trade, Investment and Technology (Comce) , warned that the review process of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), which will formally begin in 2026, will be complex, although he emphasized that there is broad support in the United States for extending the trade agreement

Smith, who participated last week in the hearing organized by the Office of the United States Trade Representative (USTR) , explained that the public consultation process received approximately 1,500 letters, of which “ more than 75% specifically address the need to extend the treaty for another 16 years .” Only 2% called for its cancellation.

However, he stressed that even sectors that support the USMCA raised concerns and areas for improvement.

“The vast majority of the comments are favorable, but they also include very specific recommendations on how to improve their operation and ensure compliance in all three countries ,” he said.

Among the points highlighted by US business organizations such as the Chamber of Commerce, Business Roundtable and the National Association of Manufacturers, is the monitoring of constitutional reforms in Mexico and their impact on the investment climate.

The report that the USTR is due to submit to the U.S. Congress in January is key to understanding the scope of the review. But today, its contents remain unclear. Smith indicated that there is tension between the administration and Congress , which is demanding transparency and a written document .

“We don’t know if the government will deliver a detailed report or if there will only be closed-door hearings. That is the question Congress has at this time ,” he emphasized.

That means the uncertainty could continue through the first quarter of 2026 and this could take all year or even extend into annual reviews in 2027 and 2028

In response to recent statements by US President Donald Trump about a possible withdrawal from the agreement, Smith emphasized that it is a low probability , and considered these messages as tools of negotiating pressure, rather than real threats.

In this regard, regarding the process, the specialist insisted that Mexico should not improvise .

“If the United States raises the issue, we can’t start thinking about what we’re going to do then. We have to work on it now ,” he said.

He also emphasized that Mexico, the United States, and Canada can use the review to promote common policies on two fronts: combating unfair trade practices and boosting strategic investments in semiconductors, artificial intelligence, medical equipment, and data centers .

“Mexico is indispensable for the United States to be able to compete successfully in the future with China and other regions of the world ,” he stated.

For his part, Antonio Ortiz Mena, president of the USMCA Technical Strategy Committee of Comce, complemented the vision.

“We have to see the USMCA review as riding a crazy mouse. There will be ups and downs and stops, but we’re going to reach our destination ,” he said.

For Ortiz Mena, Mexico’s central objective should be to reduce the uncertainty caused by unilateral actions by the United States , such as tariffs under section 232 or restrictions due to economic emergencies.

“Maintaining zero tariffs would be of little use if the United States continues to use these instruments; we need real certainty ,” he added.

He considered that, paradoxically, the international context opens up great opportunities for Mexico , where providing certainty and privileged access will be vital to being one of the most important destinations for foreign investment.

Both specialists agreed that the review of the USMCA does not imply an imminent risk of breakdown , but it does imply a prolonged period of intense negotiation.

“We don’t foresee a collapse of the treaty. We see a complex process, with political pressure, but also with a clear agenda to strengthen North American competitiveness ,” Smith emphasized.

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Following an increase in trade due to advance purchases before the implementation of the new tariffs, the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) estimated that global trade growth during the first half of 2025 could fall from 4% to between 2.5% and 3%, “with a slowdown on the horizon . ”

According to the Trade and Development Report 2025 , global economic growth is also projected to slow to 2.6 percent in 2025 , down from the pre-COVID-19 pandemic trend of 3 percent.

UNCTAD’s analysis indicated that economies such as the United States and Europe are slowing down, as is China, while “across the global south, financial volatility and weaker external demand are putting pressure on investment and employment.”

Given this challenging global outlook, developing economies will drive almost 70% of global growth in 2025 , but face the greatest constraints in financing that growth, the organization explained.

Trade has become more sensitive to financial factors , such as fluctuations in interest rates or changes in investor confidence, which affects developing countries, as monetary volatility can make imports and debt repayment more expensive .

“Prices increasingly reflect speculative strategies, not supply and demand. When finance sets food prices, countries have more difficulty ensuring affordable and reliable supplies,” the organization stated.

The unusual situation of a weakening dollar while US Treasury bond yields rise could indicate lower short-term demand for US assets; however, the dollar’s dominance persists , as almost 90% of global foreign exchange trading (the buying and selling of currencies needed for global payments) involves the dollar.

“The dollar’s ​​influence goes far beyond central bank reserves or trade pricing. It affects who can access credit, where investment flows, and how quickly financial crises spread around the world,” the report explained.

UNCTAD highlighted that developing countries now account for more than 40% of global merchandise production and trade , and almost 60% of global Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) inflows , up from 22% in the mid-2000s.

“However, their participation in global financial markets remains low, at 25%, and has even decreased, a mismatch that limits their development. Excluding China, developing countries control only 12% of the value of the global stock market and 6% of the global bond market,” he noted.

The report warned that domestic financial markets have not kept pace, leaving many developing countries dependent on foreign banks and markets, “often with high and volatile interest rates.”

Given this scenario, the report stressed the need to build economies that can withstand shocks , adapt to transitions, and grow sustainably even under conditions of uncertainty.

In that regard, the analysis suggested reforming the global financial system to support climate-vulnerable countries; expanding regional financial cooperation; strengthening national financial ecosystems; addressing emerging financial risks beyond the banking sector; and promoting “networked multilateralism,” UNCTAD concluded.

According to the United Nations report , the projected global economic slowdown by 2025 would be driven by increasing volatility in financial markets and geopolitical uncertainty , factors that are putting pressure on trade and investment worldwide.

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The Mexican automotive industry is going through a decisive moment. In the discussion “Accelerating the Automotive Industry: Challenges and Opportunities ,” organized by Mundi , industry leaders analyzed the effects of the current situation, the revision of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) , and the challenges that the transition to electromobility will bring.

Gabriel Padilla Maya, general director of the National Auto Parts Industry (INA) , emphasized that Mexico remains the world’s fourth-largest producer of auto parts , behind only China, the United States, and Japan.

Since the USMCA came into force in 2020, he said the country has consolidated a model of advanced manufacturing and regional integration that now supplies 43% of the parts and components the United States requires to manufacture vehicles.

However, he acknowledged that the industry is facing a “setback,” reflected in the 7% to 8% drop in performance in the first half of 2024 compared to 2023.

The expectation, he added, “is to resume growth after the treaty review in 2026, with an expansion horizon starting in 2027, provided Mexico manages to strengthen its supply chain and integrate more small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) as Tier 1, 2, and 3 suppliers.”

From the National Chamber of the Transformation Industry (Canacintra) in Querétaro, Daniel Romero agreed that electromobility is one of the biggest challenges.

He noted that, in addition to charging infrastructure, the country must develop its supply chain for batteries and critical materials such as lithium, cobalt, and nickel. He warned that the USMCA will impose pressures to increase competitiveness compared to Asia and Europe, and emphasized that logistics and security costs remain a challenge for attracting new investment.

For her part, Elisa Crespo, executive president of the Metropolitan Automotive Cluster (CLAUT) , highlighted the sector’s resilience during the COVID-19 pandemic and in the face of recent disruptions.

He mentioned that more than 50% of companies implemented technical shutdowns in 2024, in coordination with unions, which helped preserve jobs. He also emphasized “the need to strengthen training and continuing education as key instruments to attract investment and maintain competitiveness.”

The analysis also included the views of Guillermo Bernal, a representative of the American Chamber of Commerce (AmCham) , who stated that the USMCA “is more alive than ever” and that the current review should be viewed as an opportunity to modernize the treaty.

He emphasized that the private sector must speak with one voice, strengthen regional integration , and ensure that competitiveness vis-à-vis Asia is maintained through clear rules of origin and greater use of the North American market.

Participants agreed that the negotiation of tariffs with the United States and the definition of rules of origin will be crucial for the immediate future.

At the same time, they emphasized that the Mexican industry must invest in technological innovation , digitalization, and the development of specialized talent to consolidate its position as the region’s automotive hub .

The discussion made it clear that uncertainty will continue to plague the industry, but also that Mexico has a solid foundation to turn challenges into a platform for opportunities.

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Mexico has established itself as one of the destinations for the relocation of companies ( nearshoring ) , however, there are investments that have not been consolidated and areas of opportunity that the country has not yet been able to resolve.

Between 2018 and the first half of 2023 (1H23), Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) in Mexico accumulates a little more than 193 thousand 693 million dollars (million dollars) , culminating in 2023 at its historical maximum, with 36 thousand 058 million dollars ; while in the first half of 2024, 31,096 million dollars are already accounted for, according to data from the Ministry of Economy .

Despite this good moment and with great investment announcements, Mexico has not been able to resolve issues such as reducing congestion at customs crossings or offering energy security, among other issues, which can hinder exchange with the United States , which is the main market sought by companies that want to invest.

Given this panorama, Eduardo Covarrubias, representative of the Association of Mexican Entrepreneurs (AEM) Guanajuato chapter, indicated that ” capital has no homeland, it is where it is best treated ,” so in the face of the challenges that Mexico has, for example, the of road infrastructure, lack of resources such as energy, among others, some of these investments are looking for Texas, in the United States.

“It should be Mexico, but it’s going to be Texas, it’s getting the big applause. Relocation of very important corporations is coming and we have to study it, learn it, imitate it and be there,” stated Covarrubias.

He added that Texas shares a border with four states of Mexico -Chihuahua, Coahuila, Nuevo León and Tamaulipas-, so that location favors companies, being close to their ecosystem of suppliers in Mexico, but with better conditions.

According to CNBC ‘s  Top States for Business 2024, Texas is the third best state in the United States to do business, with GDP growth of 5.7% in 2023 and an advance of 2.4% to the first quarter of 2024; It also enjoys favorable fiscal health and an unemployment rate of 4 percent.

Separately, Texas Governor Greg Abbott announced a record $142 billion investment in transportation infrastructure , including a $100 billion state highway construction plan over 10 years in collaboration with the Texas Department of Transportation (TxDOT) , a project that aims to improve safety, relieve congestion and strengthen connectivity .

In contrast, according to the Mexican Institute for Competitiveness (IMCO) , Mexico reduced the amount allocated to public investment by 11.1% in 2024 , which amounted to 1.11 trillion pesos, compared to the 1.19 trillion pesos allocated in 2023. Of this budget, only 605.5 billion pesos (54.6%) will be allocated to public works such as railways, roads, hospitals, among others.

This cut occurs at a critical time due to the nearshoring trend that requires increasing the supply of productive public infrastructure in key areas such as connectivity, electricity and water supply.

Furthermore, added to this is the uncertainty of what will happen in US politics, which is why companies are cautious in their investments, pausing some investment announcements.

“You have to be very expectant, there are many investments stopped, movements like those in currencies make everyone nervous,” said Eduardo Covarrubias.

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In a context where foreign investment is increasingly growing in Mexico, Jesús Herrera Casso, president of the Mexican Business Council for Foreign Trade, Investment, and Technology (COMCE) Northeast, emphasized the importance of strengthening the country’s logistics chain to make Mexico a more competitive economy through relocation.

The organization announced in a statement that during the 2024 International Foreign Trade Forum, Susana Duque Roquero, general director of the National COMCE, outlined proposals to enhance Mexico’s attractiveness as an investment destination for the 2024-2030 period.

1. “FDI is not just a number in a statistic; it’s an engine driving the growth, innovation, and competitiveness of our economy,” she said.

Duque Roquero pointed out the need for a comprehensive strategy as a country to attract investment to Mexico, as there is an exceptional context for capitalizing on nearshoring and defining the types of investments the country wishes to attract.

Moreover, the COMCE representative highlighted the necessity of establishing an investment intelligence area at the federal government level to attract investment projects that promote value creation, technological advancement, and sustainability in the country.

Furthermore, there is a need to attract more research and development projects, aiming for Mexico to transition from being a manufacturing hub to an innovation generator.

Lastly, ensuring access to sufficient, competitive, and clean energy for companies, as well as guaranteeing legal certainty and upholding the rule of law to generate investor confidence, providing stability for long-term operational planning, is essential.

It’s worth noting that the Ministry of Economy recently announced that Foreign Direct Investment continues to break records, totaling $20.313 billion in the first quarter of this year, an amount 9% higher than that recorded in the same period in 2023.

Additionally, panelists, including Emilio Cadena, president of Grupo Prodensa, and Sergio Argüelles, CEO of Finsa, revealed that Mexico is the ninth-largest exporting power globally and, after four years, the country is once again included in the Foreign Investment Confidence Index, ranking sixth among emerging markets, conducted by Kearny.

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In a context where foreign investment is increasingly growing in Mexico, Jesús Herrera Casso, president of the Northeast Mexican Business Council for Foreign Trade, Investment, and Technology (Comce), highlighted the importance of strengthening the country’s logistics chain so that relocation can turn Mexico into a more competitive economy.

In a statement, the organization announced that during the 2024 International Foreign Trade Forum, Susana Duque Roquero, general director of Comce Nacional, emphasized her proposals to increase Mexico’s attractiveness as an investment destination for the period 2024-2030.

“Foreign direct investment is not just a number in a statistic; it is a driver that fuels the growth, innovation, and competitiveness of our economy,” she said.

In this regard, Duque Roquero pointed out that an integral strategy needs to be created as a country to attract investment to Mexico, as there is an exceptional context to capitalize on nearshoring and define the types of investments the country wishes to attract.

Furthermore, the Comce representative stressed the need to create an investment intelligence area at the Federal Government level to attract investment projects that allow for the creation of value, technological advancement, and sustainability in the country.

Additionally, more research and development projects should be attracted, as the goal is for Mexico to transition from being a manufacturing country to an innovation-generating country.

Lastly, it is essential to ensure access to sufficient, competitive, and clean energy for companies, as well as guarantee legal certainty and uphold the rule of law to build investor confidence, providing stability for long-term operational planning.

It is worth noting that the Ministry of Economy recently announced that foreign direct investment continues to break records, totaling $20.313 billion in the first quarter of this year, an amount 9% higher than in the same period in 2023.

Moreover, the panelists, including Emilio Cadena, president of Grupo Prodensa, and Sergio Argüelles, general director of Finsa, announced that Mexico is the ninth largest exporting power worldwide and, after four years, is once again featured in the Foreign Direct Investment Confidence Index, ranking sixth among emerging markets, conducted by the firm Kearney.

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