The rating agency noted that companies with greater exposure to the manufacturing sector are likely to be the most affected, due to recent changes that have altered the outlook for the relocation of production lines in Mexico, i.e., nearshoring .

“These obstacles are mitigated by the sector’s conservative business models, solid occupancy rates, and stable financial profiles,” the firm emphasized.

Approximately 80% of the manufacturing sector ‘s customers are exporters, with the United States being the primary destination for their products. In this regard, the automotive industry , one of the most vulnerable to tariffs , represents almost a quarter of the gross leasable area (GLA) of Fitch-rated companies in the sector.

“As of the first quarter of 2025 (1Q25), rated issuers presented a balanced GLA mix between manufacturing (47%) and logistics/consumer goods (53%), with the northern region of Mexico accounting for the majority of GLA (46%) and ongoing development projects (56%). The majority of logistics/consumer goods GLA is located in the central region of the country and is almost entirely allocated to the local market,” he explained.

It’s worth noting that Fitch Ratings forecast that Mexico’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) will decline 0.4% in 2025 before recovering 0.8% in 2026, due to the global trade war that began this year and has generated uncertainty among investors and in various markets around the world.

“While the magnitude, scope, and permanence of the tariffs and potential retaliatory measures remain unclear, the uncertainty is already prompting Mexican real estate companies to reevaluate the timing of their investments and consider alternative scenarios as demand slows,” he stressed.

He noted that companies such as Fibra Prologis and Fibra MTY acquire operating assets rather than developing them from scratch, which reduces start-up risk.

On the other hand, he emphasized that Vesta and Fibra MTY have a high leverage margin, although the latter has greater exposure to the manufacturing sector, so it could be more affected by the tariff war.

The rating agency expects rated real estate issuers to maintain stable capital structures in 2025 and indicated that they are likely to reduce investments to maintain occupancy rates amid lower demand.

According to CBRE , a commercial real estate services and investment company, in 2024 total sales or national gross absorption registered an annual growth of 5% , while the share of nearshoring  with respect to total accumulated sales was  28% , which meant a figure similar to that of 2022 and 2023.

Last year, demand for industrial real estate due to the relocation of production lines in Mexico exceeded two million square meters (m2) , according to the firm.

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El cargo Tariff tensions will hit industrial real estate companies, Fitch Ratings predicts. apareció primero en T21.

The real estate sector in Mexico is preparing for a 2025 marked by an estimated growth of 15% annually, reaching a projected investment of 652 billion pesos (mdp) and driven by the construction of housing, industrial warehouses and other key projects, according to data provided by the consulting firm Softec. 

Josefina Moisés, general director of the Mexican Association of Real Estate Fibras (Amefibra) , said that the sector’s opportunities will be linked to nearshoring and the government’s program for the development of 150 urban centers. 

However, he warned that political and economic factors could slow the pace of investment in certain segments. 

Likewise, since their launch in 2011, Real Estate Investment Trusts (Fibras) have played a crucial role in the consolidation of the sector.

Currently, 15 Fibras associated with Amefibra represent nearly 5% of the country’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP), with an occupancy rate of over 95% in its more than 32.5 million square meters (m2) of gross rentable area. 

In addition, Amefibra reported that the sector is diversified into industrial, commercial, hotel and other areas, with 65% of the gross rentable area concentrated in the industrial sector . 

Despite these achievements, Moisés stressed that developers will need to integrate sustainable practices and innovative technology to respond to changing market preferences. 

“We will see many developers incorporating sustainable practices and new technologies on an ongoing basis,” stressed Moisés. 

He also reported that the projected investment in different segments for 2025 includes: 

• Housing: Construction of 223,666 units for 364,551 million pesos. 

• Industrial warehouses: 5.5 million m2 for 71 thousand 885 million pesos. 

• Vacation homes: 16,232 units for 101,492 million pesos. 

• Hotels: 10 thousand rooms for 51 thousand 753 million pesos. 

• Offices: 250 thousand m2 for 19 thousand 400 million pesos. 

• Shopping centers: 300 thousand m2 for 16 thousand 712 million pesos. 

In addition, Amefibra announced that in the financial field , the Fibras have issued thematic bonds worth 36 billion pesos, reflecting a commitment to ESG (Environmental, Social and Governance) principles. 

Additionally, the Afores own more than 42% of the capital of these entities, consolidating them as key players in the market. 

The outlook for 2025 presents ample investment opportunities , but also the need to overcome obstacles that could influence the development of the sector. 

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El cargo 2025, a panorama of growth and challenges for the real estate sector in Mexico apareció primero en T21.