The journey is the same. The route doesn’t change, nor does the customer. But at the end of the journey, the result is no longer the same. 

In the trucking industry, each crossing into the United States can result in lower revenue in pesos, even if payment in dollars remains the same. Domestically, the impact manifests differently: rising costs, negotiated rates, and operations constantly being adjusted on the fly . 

The exchange rate has ceased to be a distant data point and has become an operational variable. So far in 2026, the peso has moved from levels close to 18 units per dollar to lows of around 17.2 , before rebounding, according to data from the Bank of Mexico (Banxico) . 

Rather than sustained strength, the behavior reveals an environment of volatility that is beginning to affect the operation of the sector.  

This shift directly impacts an industry that operates on tight margins and long-term contracts . The variation is not evenly distributed: it depends on the type of transaction, the currency of the revenue, and the cost structure.  

In cross-border transport , the effect is immediate. When revenues are dollarized, every appreciation of the peso reduces the value ultimately received in local currency. 

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El cargo Super Peso: Pressures and Opportunities in Motor Transport apareció primero en T21.

Last February, Super Transporte Internacional (STI) reached its first 33 years of operation, where all the knowledge of its founders, who have a little more experience in the motor transport industry, is imprinted.

And although this anniversary was achieved in a complex industry cycle, the experience of its management team and its collaborators, as well as the company’s fundamentals , have been key to overcoming a challenging 2025 , and remaining solid in the face of an uncertain 2026 , but one that promises a better scenario.

“2025 presented us with a scenario that no one could have predicted, and that impacted the international transit of goods, which is our main market. With tariffs, particularly on steel and aluminum, we were forced to be creative and agile in our response to reposition the team and seek organic growth with clients in other areas,” Ángel Hernández Gaytán, CEO of STI (number 13 in the Top 100 of Autotransport® ), told T21.

The executive noted that although STI has faced other critical moments throughout its history, such as the 2008-2009 subprime mortgage crisis in the United States, which had a global impact, or the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, the company’s fundamentals were key to overcoming this period.

“We have a solid client portfolio that allows us to serve them effectively, but we have also built long-term relationships; with some of our clients we have been working for over 20 years . This also extends to our employees ; some have been with us almost since the company began and continue to be involved,” added Ángel Hernández, who joined STI in 2001.

In the context of the trade war, according to figures from the United States Department of Commerce , Mexico contributed 15.3% of the total trade of that country , consolidating itself as the main trading partner above Canada and well above China.

The border crossing remains the main point of entry between the two countries, totaling $353.94 billion in 2025, driven by a 7.7% increase in Mexican exports to the United States, which reached $227.11 billion. Conversely, exports from Mexico to the United States contracted by 1.11%, settling at $126.83 billion.

The positive trend has continued for the first two months, according to comments by Ángel Hernández, and according to STI’s operations in both periods, there is growth compared to the same cycle in 2025.

Given this market, which is expected to recover, some of STI’s strengths, as identified by its CEO, include financial discipline , which is currently a key asset. Since most of its revenue is in dollars, and the “super peso” (a reference to the strong peso) , this has an impact on its financial structure that must be managed with clients.

“It forces us to be close to our clients and make them aware of this reality of currency losses. We have been negotiating especially with those who operate spot routes ; with those whose routes we have contracted, it is more complex, but we are looking for ways to compensate. Ideally, we want to operate within the range of 20 pesos per dollar,” Hernández Gaytán explained.

Based on data from the Bank of Mexico (Banxico) , the highest exchange rate in 2025 was 20.85 pesos per dollar , reached on March 6 of that year, and if compared against the level reached on March 9, 2026, the exchange rate difference is -15.2 percent .

This situation may have an impact on the search to modernize the fleet and keep it current, an effect that for STI was not so profound, since in 2024 they had made the pre-purchase of units considered to incorporate into the fleet in 2025.

In 2025, the company’s focus was on the trailer team , “which served the growth of our divisions, both specialized and dry van for international and local market movements, as well as to support the logistics divisions,” described Ángel Hernández.

In addition, a key aspect of STI’s strategy is the institutionalization of the company, where, although some management positions are held by family members, there is a professional rigor to ensure they remain in their positions.

This factor is fundamental to conveying certainty to customers and various stakeholders about the path the company will follow over time.

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El cargo A 33-year-old chassis allows STI to tackle complex cycles apareció primero en T21.

Mexican economic activity could grow between 1.3% and 1.8% during 2026 , reflecting a relative improvement, although insufficient to compensate for the stagnation observed in 2025, according to estimates from the International Chamber of Commerce Mexico (ICC Mexico) .

According to the agency’s projections, this growth would be driven by the export sector , since the country continues to have a key comparative advantage with the rest of the world: preferential access —with zero tariffs— to the markets of the United States and Canada under the current framework of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) , “a condition that acted as a ‘lifeline’ in 2025 and that could continue to sustain economic activity in the first half of 2026.”

“Until there is a clear definition on the future of the USMCA, the Mexican economy will continue to operate under the umbrella of the current treaty, which will allow for some stability in exports, although this advantage is not guaranteed in the medium term,” according to the analysis of the Economic Policy Group of ICC Mexico.

In December 2025,  the value of Mexico’s exports was 60,651 million dollars (USD), an annual increase of 17.2% , while the accumulated value for 2025 was 664,837 million USD , an annual growth of 7.6%, according to figures released by the  National Institute of Statistics and Geography (Inegi) .

By July of this year, the review of the trilateral trade agreement will formally begin, a process that is anticipated to be long, complex and politically sensitive; in addition, it is estimated that there will be some changes, which have already been expressed by US authorities.

On January 28, Marcelo Ebrard, head of the  Ministry of Economy , and Jamieson Greer,  United States Trade Representative (USTR) , held a meeting in which they addressed a series of possible reforms to the trade agreement, including stricter rules of origin for key industrial goods.

In that regard, ICC Mexico indicated that the review could extend beyond 2026 , which would maintain high levels of uncertainty, particularly regarding investment.

Regarding private consumption , he projected that although it has remained relatively stable, this indicator continues to reflect the effects associated with uncertainty about US economic policy, the review of the USMCA and the international geopolitical environment, “so a vigorous recovery is not anticipated during the year.”

According to data from Inegi, private consumption in Mexico registered an increase of 0.8% during October 2025 compared to last September, and in its annual measurement it also increased 4.1%, derived from an increase in the acquisition of foreign products.

“Among the factors that could provide an additional boost —albeit a temporary one— is the celebration of the 2026 FIFA World Cup, which could benefit tourism, services and trade, with a positive but short-lived impact,” he said.

Regarding inflation , ICC Mexico estimated that during some periods of 2026 it could be above 4 percent.

“This environment will lead the Bank of Mexico (Banxico) to adopt a more cautious stance, anticipating only two additional interest rate cuts during 2026, which would bring the benchmark rate to close the year at 6.5%, slowing the pace of monetary easing previously observed,” he projected.

ICC Mexico predicted that the Mexican peso could remain relatively strong in the first half of the year ; however, as the review of the USMCA progresses, episodes of volatility would occur, so the exchange rate could close 2026 around 18 pesos per dollar , “under a base scenario without a clear definition of the treaty.”

The organization stressed that if a mutually agreeable agreement is not reached among the three countries that make up the USMCA, the treaty would not be terminated, as its legal validity extends until 2036.

“The mechanism provided for in the treaty itself stipulates that, in the absence of consensus among the three countries, annual reviews will be activated, while the agreement remains fully operational,” he explained.

Although the central scenario assumes that the treaty will eventually be ratified, the activation of annual review mechanisms, bilateral negotiations, or additional pressures that affect investor confidence cannot be ruled out.

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El cargo Exports are expected to boost the Mexican economy in 2026, according to ICC estimates. apareció primero en T21.

During the last five years, the motor transportation industry experienced a phenomenon of Mexican companies creating companies in the United States to offer door-to-door services in the cross-border segment .

This situation, with an exchange rate above 20 pesos against the dollar, was a strength for companies that entered the US market, however, in the last year and a half, where the Mexican currency strengthened and the exchange rate exchange rate remained below 18 pesos, had an impact on this company configuration.

This situation was what allowed Forza Transportation to strengthen itself in the market.

“We used a reverse strategy, we entered the Mexican market to provide door-to-door service in the crossborder, where our strength was in recent years, where the exchange rate allowed us growth,” Roberto Pérez Levi told T21. , president of Forza Transportation.

The manager described that with the exchange rate at levels between 17 and 16 pesos, there were transportation providers who went from charging Forza a thousand dollars for the service between Nuevo Laredo and Querétaro to up to 1,600 dollars for the service , “with that increase, “We better take advantage of our own infrastructure and manage it as an advantage for our clients.”

Currently, Forza Transportation, with its companies in the United States, has a fleet of 1,050 tractor trucks, while in Mexico it has a vehicle fleet of 282 units. “We operate between 1,300 and 1,400 weekly shipments in the crossborder , of which we already operate with our own fleet, about 70% , the rest we continue to do with our allied Mexican transport companies,” Pérez Levi highlighted.

Recently, Forza opened its headquarters in San Pedro Garza García, Nuevo León. This entity is the base of operations for its two divisions: in Salinas Victoria it has its operations center for Mexico, while services in the United States are controlled from San Pedro.

Roberto Pérez emphasized that Forza and its group of companies, based on data from the Federal Motor Carriers Safety Administration (FMCSA) , in 2023 registered a movement of 120 million miles, “we are the largest door-to-door crossborder company , according to “FMCSA data, the company that follows us in this process drove 28 million miles.”

The story of Forza Transportation began in 2007, when Roberto Pérez began his activity as an operator  seeing an area of ​​opportunity in the motor transportation market, after graduating with an MBA from the University of Texas.

In 2008 he started Forza Transportation, and as he himself describes, “the advantage of dual citizenship, the knowledge of both markets, the expertise that gave me a different perspective and, above all, taking advantage of the conditions of the American market for the growth of the company with financing rates of 4% for the acquisition of trucks, for example, and that thanks to NAFTA (North American Free Trade Agreement) and the T-MEC (Treaty between Mexico, the United States and Canada) have been our engine of growth.”

In recent days, Forza celebrated the investment of more than $220 million during 2024 in its operations in Nuevo León.

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El cargo Going Against the Market, “Overdrive” of Forza Transportation apareció primero en T21.

The peso-dollar exchange rate had maintained a downward trajectory with historical lows. Since March 24, 2020, where 25.33 pesos were reached for each dollar, there was a recovery of ground for the Mexican currency, until reaching its lowest level of the six-year period of 16.31 pesos on April 9.

Based on the electoral process that took place in Mexico and the possible formation of Congress that could imply constitutional changes that had been proposed by the current administration of President Andrés Manuel López Obrador, it has motivated a movement in the price of the peso – dollar, under The market’s reading that these changes could be counterproductive, John Soldevilla Canales, general director of the consulting firm EcoBI , told T21 .

“In each electoral period (April-June), the exchange rate has been unfailingly pressured: 10% in 2000 (election of Vicente Fox), 9% in 2006 (Felipe Calderón), 14% in 2012 (Enrique Peña Nieto ), 15% in 2018 (López Obrador) and 11% during this period,” commented Soldevilla Canales.

In the specialist’s perspective, “this exchange rate depreciation could induce an increase in exports, but this will be marginal and only short-term; in any case, road transportation will partially benefit from this side. However, this temporary benefit would be partially offset by the import side, of which 46% is carried out by road transport. For the trucking industry, there will be some benefit from exports, but not from imports. In the end, the net profit would be marginal”

Data shared by EcoBI identifies that of the total exports in 2023, which corresponded to 593 billion dollars, 65% of these were moved by road, where there has also been an increase of 10 participation points in the last decade.

Given this situation, John Soldevilla emphasizes that planning cannot be done based on this exchange rate movement, since according to what has been observed in other electoral processes, it has always returned to previous levels or close to them, “this year it could be particular, since several factors come together that could keep the exchange rate under pressure for the rest of the year,” highlights the general director of EcoBI.

Among these elements are the recent statements by the leader of the bench in the Chamber of Deputies , Ignacio Mier, where he anticipated that all the reforms proposed by the current head of the Executive would be voted on. Added to this is President López Obrador’s interest in approving his constitutional reforms at the last minute in September. Faced with this situation, the markets are reacting negatively: depreciation of the peso, a fall in the stock market and an increase in country risk.

In addition to the above, in November it is expected that Donald Trump will be the winner of the electoral process in the United States, who is expected to maintain his strategy of attacking Mexico and factors such as migration, tariffs, review of the T-MEC in 2026, among others; which could generate exchange rate pressures for the rest of the year.

In the same vein, Alejandro Saldaña, Chief Economist at Grupo Financiero Ve por Más (BX+), shared that, given the recent significant events that were not included in their year-end forecast, which originally ranged between 17.9 and 18.3 pesos per dollar, “it will have to be considered that Mexican assets might possibly trade with a higher risk premium and be somewhat more volatile going forward. However, the country continues to offer some favorable aspects, such as healthy public finances, a strong external position, and attractive interest rates.”

In 2016, when Donald Trump won, the peso depreciated 22% between May and November. “The exchange rate will close this year at 19 pesos or more. Once this situation has passed, the price would return next year to levels closer to 18 pesos ,” identified John Soldevilla.

In this context, companies that participate in foreign trade, such as transportation firms, benefit from a depreciation of the exchange rate, which is generated after a strong appreciation experienced in recent years (around 20%).

“The current 11% depreciation only partially compensates for the losses generated in these years by pesifying its export income. The same applies to freight motor carriers. If the latter have accounts receivable in dollars for 30, 60 or 90 days, it is advisable that they allow the time established in their contracts to pass, since the Mexican peso may remain under pressure for the rest of the year. This would cause an exchange gain and improve their balance sheets for the year,” Soldevilla Canales points out.

In the perspective of Alejandro Saldaña, Mexican exporters are taking the depreciation of the peso in a good way, “because they would be receiving more pesos for each dollar, in addition to gaining more competitiveness in international markets. Likewise, the consumption of locally produced goods could be more in demand over those that are imported, as the latter become more expensive.”

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El cargo Rising Dollar Will Have Marginal and Temporary Impact on Motor Transportation apareció primero en T21.