The maritime market between Asia, Mexico, and South America experienced a relative pause in the price increases that characterized the first quarter of the year during April. However, behind this apparent stability, new capacity pressures were already beginning to emerge, which now anticipate a new upward cycle for the start of the peak season.

The EAX Index , developed by the Chinese company Eternity Group Mexico , closed April at $2,761 per 40-foot equivalent unit (FEU) for the Asia > Mexico + West Coast of South America (WCSA) route, a slight decrease of 1.71% compared to March. However, this correction was far from representing a structural weakening of the market.

During the fourth month of the year, rates traded within a relatively narrow range of $2,500 to $2,900 per FEU, reflecting a significant reduction in volatility and greater stability in both available capacity and volumes handled. This behavior contrasted with the sharp fluctuations seen in previous weeks , when geopolitical tensions and operational adjustments by shipping lines drove abrupt increases on various transpacific and Latin American routes.

But the equilibrium was short-lived. Toward the last week of April, shipping companies began implementing strategic capacity cuts ahead of the Labor Day holiday in China, celebrated from May 1 to 5. The reduction in available space led to a buildup of cargo prior to the temporary shutdown of operations, a phenomenon that subsequently triggered additional pressure on demand once the holiday period ended.

The result was immediate. In the first days of May, the market resumed an upward trend, bringing forward the start of the peak season for maritime trade. Shipping lines began implementing General Rate Increases (GRIs) practically every week, with adjustments ranging from $500 to $1,000 per FEU, in an attempt to capitalize on capacity constraints and bolster rate levels.

However, the report itself warns that the sustainability of these increases will depend on the actual capacity of demand to absorb them in the short term, especially in an environment where doubts persist about the pace of global consumption and the evolution of supply chains.

The analysis also focuses on the operational discipline that shippers must maintain in the coming weeks. Key recommendations include avoiding any logistical speculation when dealing with critical or high-value cargo, and reserving space at least three to four weeks in advance to reduce financial and operational risks.

Added to this is the need to maintain absolute precision in the definition of the Cargo Ready Date (CRD) , because any modification to the committed date significantly increases the probability of losing spaces previously allocated by the shipping companies, particularly in a restricted capacity environment.

Meanwhile, global capacity continued to expand. Alphaliner data cited in the report shows that 88,744 TEUs (twenty-foot equivalent units) of new capacity entered the global shipping market during April. The largest addition came from CMA CGM , which added 29,254 TEUs during the month, reinforcing the fleet growth trend despite the current operational adjustments implemented on various routes.

The dynamics observed on the West Coast of South America were also replicated in the Asia-East Coast of South America (ECSA) corridor , albeit with higher fares. The EAX Index for this route closed April at $3,093 per FEU, a marginal decrease of 1.65% compared to the previous month.

During April, the ECSA market found a solid floor near $3,000 per FEU , supported by weekly capacity exceeding 60,000 TEUs. However, that support level shifted dramatically at the beginning of May, when rates climbed aggressively to over $3,800 per FEU.

The report attributes this behavior to the success of capacity-constraining strategies implemented by shipping companies, thus consolidating a regional upward trend at the start of the second quarter. This movement also confirms that, despite the entry of new fleets into the global market , shipping lines continue to use capacity management as their primary tool for maintaining rates on the most popular routes.

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El cargo Shipping freight anticipates a new surge after April’s lull apareció primero en T21.

The EAX Index – which measures the average cost of maritime freight on the Asia > Mexico > West Coast of South America (WCSA) route month by month – shook up market benchmarks again in March of 2026.

What began as a start to the year with signs of adjustment and some normalization in maritime rates, closed the first quarter with an abrupt turn: the indicator, developed by Eternity Group Mexico , registered a triple-digit monthly rebound that reconfigures, at least temporarily, the reading on supply, demand and costs on the Asia-Mexico-WCSA route.

The data is compelling. The monthly EAX (March) reached $2,809 per 40-foot equivalent unit (FEU) , representing a 102.96% increase compared to February. This not only reverses the decline observed at the beginning of the year—January had seen a 38.69% contraction—but also consolidates an upward trend whose main explanation lies outside the logistics market itself: the geopolitical factor.

Tensions in the Middle East have begun to significantly impact global transport operating costs . Rising fuel prices have put pressure across supply chains, increasing costs in all modes—sea, air, and land—and creating a domino effect that is ultimately reflected in spot rates. This environment has been enough to trigger an aggressive adjustment in freight rates, even in a context where the market’s structural fundamentals point in the opposite direction.

And that’s where the report’s main contradiction emerges. While tariffs are skyrocketing, capacity continues to grow. In March alone, 91,646 twenty-foot equivalent units (TEUs) were added to the global market , with a significant contribution from CMA CGM , which added more than 40,000 TEUs through the entry of new vessels, including large-scale units such as ULCVs and Neo-Panamax ships. Under normal circumstances, this increase in supply would have put downward pressure on tariffs. However, the impact of energy costs has managed to neutralize that effect.

This decoupling is also beginning to be reflected in demand patterns in Mexico. Mexican Pacific ports received 629,475 TEUs in import services during the January-March period of this year, 3.9% less than in the same period of 2015, according to data from the maritime authority. The drop in volume contrasts with the increase in tariffs and reinforces the interpretation of a market where costs are outweighing demand fundamentals.

The tension between supply and price is also reflected in regional dynamics. On the Asia-ECSA (South American East Coast) route , the market showed unusual resilience: despite registering capacity surpluses exceeding 70,000 TEUs, tariffs did not decrease. On the contrary, the EAX-ECSA Index for this region reached $3,145 per FEU , with a monthly increase of 54.93 percent. This behavior reinforces the interpretation that the market, at least in the short term, is being more sensitive to operating costs than to capacity imbalances.

Meanwhile, the route to the west coast of South America and Mexico (WCSA + Mexico) is beginning to show signs of weakening after several weeks of upward pressure, according to Eternity Group Mexico. During the first days of April, the market struggled to maintain levels above $3,000 per FEU , establishing a technical barrier that anticipates potential adjustments.

Under this scenario, the short-term expectation points to a correction. Despite international volatility, the EAX index itself projects that during April FAK rates could stabilize in a range of between $2,000 and $2,700 per container, as the market processes the cost shock and additional capacity begins to exert greater pressure.

Thus, the EAX closes the first quarter as a barometer of the tensions currently dominating global trade: a market with oversupply , but governed by external variables that distort its behavior. The question is not whether there will be an adjustment, but when the weight of capacity will once again prevail over geopolitical noise.

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El cargo Asia-Mexico route on the rise: maritime tariffs break trend in March apareció primero en T21.

Freight forwarding in Mexico is undergoing a quiet adjustment phase that contrasts sharply with the visible volatility of recent years. Far from the extraordinary peaks brought on by the pandemic, the market appears to have entered a stage where oversupply of capacity, weak consumption, and regulatory pressure are beginning to shape a more complex and less profitable environment for logistics intermediaries.

The clearest evidence lies in the industry’s performance during 2025. It was not a good year. The contraction in volumes and the pressure on margins affected even the most established players, in a context where supply growth—particularly in maritime transport—exceeded demand’s absorption capacity. “There was a slowdown; we saw a contraction at the industry level,” acknowledges Nicolás Portenza, CEO of Eternity Group Mexico , in an interview, describing a market that has yet to regain traction.

The problem is not temporary. The supply and demand equation has become unbalanced at a time when economies, especially in Latin America, are showing signs of weakness. The result is constant pressure on ocean freight rates , which continue to deteriorate, although without reaching critical levels. Shipping companies, more disciplined than in previous cycles, have managed to contain sharp declines through operational strategies, but the market remains far from a solid recovery.

In that adverse context, not all players performed equally. Eternity Group Mexico managed to weather the general market downturn and even close the year with positive numbers. “Having surpassed the previous year’s (2024) volumes was good, and we took great care of profitability,” Portenza points out, in an analysis that reveals a strategy more focused on operational discipline than aggressive expansion.

The outlook for 2026 is not particularly encouraging . Long-term contracts anticipate rates below those negotiated the previous year, while the spot market remains volatile, making planning difficult.

In this context, freight forwarders face a structural dilemma: compete on price or build value . The first option, while tempting in a depressed market, tends to erode margins in an industry where operating costs are increasingly difficult to absorb. The second, on the other hand, requires investment, sophistication, and a business narrative that the customer is willing to pay for.

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El cargo Logistics under pressure: the new game of forwarding apareció primero en T21.

The Eternity Group Mexico EAX Index , a benchmark indicator for maritime rates on the Asia-Mexico and West Coast of South America (WCSA) route, triggered signals that the maritime market had been anticipating , but not with the intensity observed in February 2026.

With an average value of $1,384 per 40-foot container (FEU) during the second month of this year, the indicator not only broke the inertia of stability that had characterized recent months, but also revealed a turning point in the dynamics of chartering costs globally.

The month’s performance is not linear. February was divided into two clearly distinct halves: a first half with contained rates, anchored around $880, followed by an abrupt break starting on February 13th that led the index to climb to $1,785 in the last week. This behavior not only reflects volatility, but also an accelerated market reaction to factors that ceased to be latent and became active triggers.

From a monthly perspective, the adjustment is significant. The EAX registered a 34.76% increase compared to January, confirming “a decisive upward trend change in chartering costs,” according to the Eternity Group Mexico report. This is not a technical rebound, but rather a structural restructuring driven by simultaneous shocks in supply, demand, and the geopolitical environment.

Looking ahead, the outlook offers no respite. The index itself warns that “the market faces an imminent upside risk in FAK (Freight All Kinds) rates,” pressured by two converging forces: the drag on volume following the Chinese New Year (CNY) and a geopolitical escalation that is no longer peripheral . Tensions between the United States, Israel, and Iran, coupled with attacks on key infrastructure in Dubai, are already having tangible operational consequences.

The impact is significant. What was once a source of uncertainty is now translating into concrete decisions by shipping companies. The report indicates that they “have gone from being a mere security alert to a real factor of logistical disruption,” in a context where route diversions are extending transit times , while fuel futures are beginning to reflect double-digit increases. The immediate result is sustained pressure on rates and an effective reduction in available capacity on key routes, stemming from changes in rotations.

Paradoxically, this upward pressure coincides with a continued expansion of supply. According to Alphaliner, an additional 65,261 TEUs (twenty-foot equivalent units) were added to the global market in February, signaling that shipping lines are maintaining their commitment to capacity, even in an environment of increasing uncertainty. Maersk played a prominent role , adding approximately 14,931 TEUs through new vessels, although Yang Ming led the way individually with the arrival of the megaship YM Willpower, which alone added 15,600 TEUs.

This duality – more capacity in the system and, at the same time, operational restrictions – is beginning to redefine market balances, where the actual availability of space does not necessarily translate into greater logistical fluidity.

The effect is also replicated on specific routes. On the corridor to the east coast of South America (ECSA) , the EAX index showed a similarly pronounced upward correction. After reaching levels close to $1,494 at the end of January, the fare experienced a “vertical jump” that led it to stabilize above $1,992, closing February at $2,030 per FEU. This represents a monthly increase of 14.55%, confirming that the disruption is not isolated, but systemic.

Thus, the February EAX does not only measure rates: it maps a market entering a new phase , where volatility ceases to be the exception and becomes the norm, and where geopolitical, energy, and operational factors begin to intertwine with a force that the logistics sector cannot afford to underestimate.

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El cargo Ocean freight rates on the rise: EAX anticipates a new wave of logistical pressure apareció primero en T21.

Mexican air cargo reaches 2026 at a quiet but decisive turning point. After closing the January-October 2025 period with a 3.9% year-on-year contraction, according to the Federal Civil Aviation Agency (AFAC) , the sector appears poised to resume its upward trend .

However, the growth projections—between 1% and 6%—depend less on global inertia and more on the country’s ability to correct the imbalances it created itself: the still unstable operation of the Felipe Ángeles International Airport (AIFA) , the slow normalization of routes affected by US decisions, and the uncertain cargo scheduling policy at Mexico City International Airport (AICM) . Against this technical, regulatory, and geopolitical backdrop, the industry is attempting to recover a “flight plan” that was marked by turbulence in 2025.

Humberto López, head of Air Product at Eternity Group Mexico , admits that the conflict between China and the United States severely impacted the flow of goods to Mexico, especially e-commerce, but believes the cycle is changing. “The projection for Mexico aligns with that of IATA (International Air Transport Association) , which estimates global growth. For Mexico, it’s between 1% and 2%, compared to the 5% estimated by IATA globally . But the most important thing is that fares will be more stable,” he states.

The tariff adjustment, which anticipates peaks of between five and seven dollars for general cargo, will be a key indicator in a market where demand moves to the rhythm of the Chinese New Year and the reorganization of transpacific routes.

El cargo Mexican air cargo takes off… but amid turbulence apareció primero en T21.

Eternity Group reported that the indicator ended at $1,934 per 40-foot container (FEU) , equivalent to a 13.35% drop compared to September, a correction that reflects “the decline in the utilization of vessels before and during the Chinese Golden Week,” a phenomenon that immediately weakened spot rates.

The setback was significant: the month repeated the pattern that marked the year, where capacity expansion outweighed any commercial attempt to stabilize prices.

For the first 10 months of this year, Pacific ports in Mexico had received a total of 2,259,294 twenty-foot containers (TEUs) , a decrease of just 0.9% compared to the same period of the previous year, according to data from the country’s port authority.

Eternity Group also highlighted a structural element: deployed capacity continued its sustained growth. In October, an additional 60,000 TEUs were added compared to the same month in 2024, confirming that the oversupply is not a temporary phenomenon. Globally, October marked the seventh consecutive month of strong new fleet deliveries, exceeding 150,000 TEUs. MSC once again dominated the market, taking delivery of 47,000 TEUs and reinforcing its leading position in the global expansion of container ships.

Eternity Group’s analysis also delves into the performance of the East Coast South America (ECSA) index, which settled at $3,070 per container, a 12.48% decrease, practically mirroring the adjustment of the MX+WCSA index. The determining factor was once again supply: “Weekly available capacity increased by approximately 100,000 TEUs,” a change that surpassed even the pace of September and amplified the downward pressure on rates.

With the year drawing to a close, the outlook does not anticipate a radical change. According to the report, a “notable reduction in FAK rate volatility” is expected, as well as a “low probability of new, successful general rate increases.” Space availability is expected to remain “essentially stable,” and transit times are expected to be “relatively predictable,” with the exception of occasional delays at congested ports.

The October EAX close confirms that the market is moving toward a forced stabilization driven more by saturation than by natural equilibrium. The question for 2026 is not whether there will be enough capacity, but how quickly shipping lines can adjust to an environment where oversupply has become the true compass of the Asia-Mexico trade.

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El cargo EAX October: rates are falling and oversupply is setting the course apareció primero en T21.

The “tidal wave” caused by the US-led tariff war has had an impact on ocean freight rates on the Asia-Mexico trade route, bringing them below $2,000 per container for the first time since January 2024.

The EAX index, which measures containerized traffic from Asia to Mexico, closed March at $1,668 per 40-foot container (FEU) , a 30.03% drop from the previous month.

“This weakness aligns with a 12% reduction in cargo volume on the Asia-Mexico route, according to Drewry Maritime Research . Shipowners unsuccessfully attempted to implement rate increases (GRI) on three occasions during the first quarter, due to low demand and trade uncertainty,” according to the EAX index report, prepared by Eternity Group Mexico .

It also highlights that the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) has reported that during the first quarter of the year, container volume orders from Asia to North America have decreased by 15 percent.

Although it also highlights what the Mexican Business Council for Foreign Trade, Investment and Technology (Comce) has said , that Mexico and Latin America could benefit from this situation, as China seeks to diversify its trade routes away from the United States , increasing exports to Mexico by 22% year-on-year.

According to the most recent statistics from the Mexican port authority, during the first two months of 2025, Mexican ports located on the Pacific coast, which have direct connections to Asia, have shown an annual increase of 9.6% in container imports.

“In April, the downward trend (on ocean rates) persists, with shipowners (shipping lines) deploying an additional 138,000 TEU (20-foot containers) weekly capacity, a 25% increase in the low season. This excess capacity, combined with weak demand, could reduce rates by another 10-15% in the second quarter. Competition among core carriers in the trade lane has reduced rates, intensifying downward pressure,” Eternity Group Mexico predicts.

Meanwhile, this Chinese freight forwarder indicated that, globally, the market received 175,000 TEUs of new vessels in the first quarter, with ONE adding 27,000 TEUs , strengthening its presence on Asia-Latin America routes. However, it indicated that this increase, which represents 4% of the global fleet according to Alphaliner , exacerbates the oversupply.

“In Mexico, port congestion, such as the 18% increase in waiting times at Manzanillo, could increase logistics costs by 5-7% in the short term,” he said.

“Mexico has an opportunity to consolidate its position as a logistics hub, with projects such as the Isthmus of Tehuantepec Interoceanic Corridor, which could reduce transit times from Asia by 20%. However, port infrastructure needs modernization, and geopolitical tensions could generate trade retaliation that affects market stability. The EAX index reflects a market under pressure, but Mexico can capitalize on emerging opportunities by diversifying routes and optimizing supply chains in this volatile environment ,” the report states.

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El cargo Tariff war sinks Asia-Mexico ocean freight rates apareció primero en T21.

The average maritime freight rate charged in 2024 on the China-Mexico-west coast of Latin America trade route confirms that it was an “extremely volatile” period, according to the EAX index, prepared by Eternity Group Mexico .

This rate stood at an annual average of four thousand 027 dollars for each 40-foot container (FEU) transported, in a period in which the supply of spaces increased (+1.1 million TEU), the demand was significantly important and the rates were high compared to 2023.

“At the end of the year, we can observe a sustained increase in capacity, which, in line with historical trends, is related to the expectations of shipping lines regarding purchase orders prior to the Chinese New Year (CNY),” according to the monthly report of the index.

In December alone, the rate had an average behavior of three thousand 042 dollars per FEU , which meant a drop of only 6.05% compared to the average of a month before.

During the period from January to November of last year (latest data available from the national port authority), the ports of the Mexican Pacific had received a total of two million 529 thousand 636 20-foot containers (TEU) in import services, 12.7% more than the same cycle a year earlier.

“However, and despite the GRI (general rate increases), the low utilization of vessels at the beginning of 2025 is generating a sharp drop in rates, even reaching rates below the technical support level of two thousand dollars per FEU. It is possible that carriers will seek to limit capacity after the CNY in order to stop the drop in rates and regain stability in the price level,” according to the report by Eternity Group Mexico.

Likewise, the freight forwarder firm of Chinese origin recommended coordinating shipments considering 07-14 days in advance , understanding a market that is still volatile and with high levels of uncertainty prior to the inauguration of Donald Trump (January 20) as president of the United States, and on the eve of the Chinese New Year.

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El cargo 2024: A “Highly Volatile” Period for China-Mexico Maritime Rates apareció primero en T21.

The cost of maritime freight that is being negotiated for shipments between Asia and Mexico next September is being driven upward by a strategy of blank sailings by shipping lines.

According to Nicolás Portenza, president of Eternity Group México , the rate reached six thousand dollars per container , after freight had eased pressure on the cost of transporting cargo on this maritime route starting in the second quarter of this year.

“It wasn’t a coincidence. The maritime lines decide four weeks before the Golden Week in China (from October 1 to 7), to reduce capacity and apply a strong GRI (General Rate Increase) of two thousand dollars per container as of September 1,” Portenza told through a post on LinkedIn.

He himself shared the complete photo of the blank sailings already announced by the different maritime lines . “Only in the first week of implementation of the new GRI, three ships were “laundered” for an approximate impact of 20 thousand TEUs (20-foot containers) in a period of increased demand due to the end-of-year holiday season and the closure. from Chinese factories in October,” he indicated.

Likewise, he stated that this situation generates cargo backlog (reservation) at origin and a cascading effect of weekly “rolls”, also considerably increasing transit times and the instability of services (surprise transfers).

Mexican ports located in the Pacific have experienced an upward trend in terms of receiving import containers, mainly from the Asian continent.

The country’s port authority states in its statistics report that, in the first half of this year, these ports have received one million 301 thousand 584 20-foot containers (TEU) in import service , 14% above what was registered in the same period of 2023.

Golden Week

On the other hand, RH Shipping & Chartering explained the importance of Golden Week for maritime trade and the forecasts that importers should take into account:

El cargo Blank Sailings Drive Up Asia-Mexico Maritime Rates apareció primero en T21.

The increases in container volume recorded by the ports of Manzanillo and Lázaro Cárdenas this year, the two most important in the Mexican Pacific, occur in a context of “enormous operational challenges” presented by both maritime connection centers, agreement with Eternity Group Mexico .

“This situation is generating constant delays in cargo arrivals (10 to 20 additional days), in addition to recurring rescheduling in container hauling services from port to final destination. This occurs because, despite the fact that the units have an appointment, the overflowing capacity of the terminals prevents the service from being carried out on the original dispatch date,” stated the freight forwarder firm in its monthly report on the trend in the price of freight between Asia and the west coast of Latin America.

Just last August 1, the port of Manzanillo registered one of these operational challenges when the roads in its vicinity collapsed, causing kilometer-long lines of tractor-trailers that spent more than 24 hours stuck. Unofficial versions point to a failure in the customs system as the trigger for this situation, which has been repeated in recent years.

During the first half of this year, the port of Manzanillo had operated one million 935 thousand 710 20-foot containers (TEU) , 11.6% higher than the record for the same period a year earlier; while Lázaro Cárdenas added one million 111 thousand 075 TEU, or an interannual growth of 33.2 percent, according to data from the national port authority.

Meanwhile, Eternity Group Mexico indicated that the price of maritime freight charged last July on the Asia-west coast of Latin America trade route was $6,356 per 40-foot container (FEU) on average, reflecting a variation monthly of -10.21 percent.

At the beginning of the second half of the year, the freight price showed a downward inflection point , after it had shown constant rates of increases, especially during the second quarter.

“As we have previously reported, various shipowners deployed additional capacity by launching new services in response to strong and sustained demand in the trade lane , however, this additional capacity finally managed to invert the curve and generate the desired imbalance between supply and demand. Consequently, the rate began to decrease in search of a new equilibrium point, reaching levels of four thousand dollars per FEU at the end of August,” the company indicated.

In addition, he stated that it will be very interesting to observe how the market reacts, prior to the Golden Week (WK40) , since so far there is no established technical support level. That is, it is not clear if the rate will rebound due to spot demand, will finally find the new equilibrium level or will continue to fall.

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El cargo Eternity Group Faces Significant Operational Challenges in Manzanillo and Lázaro Cárdenas apareció primero en T21.