The manufacturing and service industries boosted Mexico’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP)  in the fourth quarter of 2025 (4Q25), registering a 0.8% increase on a quarterly basis , the National Institute of Statistics and Geography (Inegi) announced on Friday  .

According to the Preliminary Estimate of Quarterly Gross Domestic Product (EOPIBT), the Mexican economy also grew by 1.6% year-on-year during the period . In 2025, the preliminary GDP increased by 0.7% compared to 2024.

This result shows an improvement in the country’s economy, despite the tariff environment and the constant trade changes in the world, which have generated uncertainty in international markets.

By sector, in the period October-December 2025, the timely estimate of GDP for  primary activities , which includes agriculture, livestock, fishing and mining, showed a decrease of 2.7%  in its quarterly measurement.

Meanwhile,  secondary activities – comprising the manufacturing industry – as well as tertiary activities – encompassing trade, transport and services – grew 0.9% quarterly in the cycle.

On an annual basis, the GDP of primary activities increased by 6%, that of secondary activities increased by 0.3%, and that of tertiary activities advanced by 2%.

According to analysts, Mexico exceeded recession forecasts and grew more than expected in 2025, although caution will continue this year.

By 2026, Grupo Financiero BASE  projected growth  of 0.15% to reach 0.9% , driven by the World Cup. However, in a pessimistic scenario, it indicated that  GDP would be 0.6% , while in an optimistic projection it could reach 1.4%. Meanwhile, the Mexican government anticipates growth of between 1.3% and 2.5%.

Meanwhile, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) estimated that the Mexican economy could expand by 1.5% this year, as global trade and geopolitical tensions continue to affect various financial markets around the world.

Comment and follow us on X:  @GrupoT21

El cargo Manufacturing and services contribute to the growth of the Mexican economy in Q4 2025 apareció primero en T21.

According to the  Timely Estimate of Quarterly Gross Domestic Product (EOPIBT) , published this Thursday by the  National Institute of Statistics and Geography (Inegi) , the Mexican economy contracted in the third quarter of 2025 (3Q25), which is its first decline so far this year , marked by a decrease in industrial activities.

In Q3 2025,  Gross Domestic Product (GDP)  fell 0.3%  both quarterly and year-on-year , according to seasonally adjusted figures.

The agency indicated that in the period July-September 2025, the GDP of primary activities , which include agriculture, mining and fishing,  grew 3.2% quarterly .

Meanwhile, the  secondary sector , which includes manufacturing and construction, showed a  1.5% decrease   quarter-on-quarter during the same period. The  tertiary sector , which includes services such as commerce, transportation and communications, education, and health, saw a  0.1% increase  quarter-on-quarter.

“The Timely Estimate of Quarterly Gross Domestic Product offers, in the short term, a view on the evolution of the country’s economic activities,” Inegi explained regarding this indicator.

According to analysts, the uncertainty generated by the United States tariffs offers a low expectation of growth for the Mexican economy for the remainder of the year.

It is worth remembering that Mexico’s GDP grew 0.6% in the second quarter of 2025, driven mainly by the manufacturing and service industries, so if the INEGI estimate from this Thursday is confirmed, the country’s economy would be heading for a decline.

Comment and follow us on X:  @GrupoT21

El cargo Decline in industrial activity impacts Mexico’s GDP decline in Q3 2025 apareció primero en T21.