It had 60 trucks, and on the surface, everything seemed fine. The trucks were hitting the road, the trips were being completed, and the cargo kept moving. This isn’t fiction; it’s a real case that recently occurred in the Mexican trucking industry. Even so, the company went out of business. The problem wasn’t a lack of work, but a lack of money. Payments were delayed, cash flow dried up, and within months, the operation became unsustainable. This scene highlights an increasingly common reality in the sector: these days, companies don’t go bankrupt because they can’t sell; they go bankrupt because they can’t get paid .  

This is one of the stories that Salvador Bañuelos, a credit and collections specialist, founder and CEO of AFS International , tells T21 to reveal the current challenges facing the sector. Freight transport is experiencing one of its most difficult periods . Lower demand, reduced rates, and deferred payments have squeezed margins and delayed portfolio recovery.  

This is a sector with strategic importance: it contributes 3.8% of the national GDP and moves more than 565 million tons per year , that is, 57% of all the cargo that moves in the country, according to figures from the Ministry of Infrastructure, Communications and Transport (SICT) .  

With such a level of participation, any pressure on the transport sector’s liquidity ends up impacting other economic activities. Payment delays hinder fleet operations and affect service delivery, impacting the distribution of goods and the functioning of production and commercial chains. 

“Liquidity problems in many sectors are causing delays in the recovery of service providers,” warns John Soldevilla, CEO of  Ecobi – Economy, Business & Indicators , a consultancy specializing in economics and industrial indicators. 

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Despite their crucial role in generating 72% of employment in the country and representing 52% of the national GDP , micro, small and medium-sized enterprises (MSMEs) face an average life expectancy of only eight years due to various factors of risk. This worrying situation was discussed in the panel “Opportunities and Challenges in SMEs in 2024” organized by  CIAL Dun & Bradstreet México.

John Soldevilla, general director of  Ecobi explained that according to data from the National Institute of Statistics and Geography (Inegi) , 99.7% of the business universe in Mexico is made up of MSMEs , while only 0.3% are large companies.

According to Soldevilla, research indicates that these small and medium-sized companies are responsible for 32% of total sales and that 46% of their debt is with suppliers, while 34% is with banks, which indicates low financial penetration.

Business credit destined for MSMEs has decreased by 20% , representing only 14.9% of the total, which is alarming for the sector, Soldevilla said.

“This is one of the risks, there is little access to credit, banks and financial institutions are unlikely to provide financing to MSMEs for various reasons,” indicated the general director of Ecobi.

In comparison, 93% of large companies make their purchases through electronic transfers, a practice adopted by only 17% of MSMEs, this is another risk to the lives of small and medium-sized businesses since there is little access at the current technological forefront.

Soldevilla also detailed that nearshoring was identified as a key opportunity for Mexican SMEs . He advocated the development of an industrial policy that benefits small and medium-sized companies, allowing them to take advantage of this phenomenon.

For his part, Rodrigo Ramírez, product marketing manager at CIAL, highlighted the need for MSMEs to seek credibility and visibility to be able to work with large companies. He also emphasized the importance of self-assessment and the use of prospecting and evaluation platforms to mitigate risks and incorporate sustainability criteria.

In addition, another of the topics to be discussed by the panelists was artificial intelligence (AI) and its impact on companies . Jeshua Vallarta, director of Product Development and Design, EXUS expressed his reservations about AI, pointing out that although it allows the creation of new concepts, also poses risks for employment.

“Artificial intelligence allows you to create new concepts and the question is, will it be prudent and leave everything in the hands of an algorithm,” questioned Vallarta.

For his part, Juan Carlos Gutiérrez, panelist and founder and director of Champions Soccer Academy , warned about the social and academic challenges faced by youth, highlighting the need for companies to adapt their structures so as not to be negatively affected by the reduction of groups. of work due to AI.

Sergio Hernández, president and CEO of CIAL, concluded the event by highlighting the purpose of giving visibility to the importance of MSMEs in the Mexican economy and society , and how his company seeks to support these companies in their challenges of growth, access to markets and credibility. through an ecosystem of transparency and business data.

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The peso-dollar exchange rate had maintained a downward trajectory with historical lows. Since March 24, 2020, where 25.33 pesos were reached for each dollar, there was a recovery of ground for the Mexican currency, until reaching its lowest level of the six-year period of 16.31 pesos on April 9.

Based on the electoral process that took place in Mexico and the possible formation of Congress that could imply constitutional changes that had been proposed by the current administration of President Andrés Manuel López Obrador, it has motivated a movement in the price of the peso – dollar, under The market’s reading that these changes could be counterproductive, John Soldevilla Canales, general director of the consulting firm EcoBI , told T21 .

“In each electoral period (April-June), the exchange rate has been unfailingly pressured: 10% in 2000 (election of Vicente Fox), 9% in 2006 (Felipe Calderón), 14% in 2012 (Enrique Peña Nieto ), 15% in 2018 (López Obrador) and 11% during this period,” commented Soldevilla Canales.

In the specialist’s perspective, “this exchange rate depreciation could induce an increase in exports, but this will be marginal and only short-term; in any case, road transportation will partially benefit from this side. However, this temporary benefit would be partially offset by the import side, of which 46% is carried out by road transport. For the trucking industry, there will be some benefit from exports, but not from imports. In the end, the net profit would be marginal”

Data shared by EcoBI identifies that of the total exports in 2023, which corresponded to 593 billion dollars, 65% of these were moved by road, where there has also been an increase of 10 participation points in the last decade.

Given this situation, John Soldevilla emphasizes that planning cannot be done based on this exchange rate movement, since according to what has been observed in other electoral processes, it has always returned to previous levels or close to them, “this year it could be particular, since several factors come together that could keep the exchange rate under pressure for the rest of the year,” highlights the general director of EcoBI.

Among these elements are the recent statements by the leader of the bench in the Chamber of Deputies , Ignacio Mier, where he anticipated that all the reforms proposed by the current head of the Executive would be voted on. Added to this is President López Obrador’s interest in approving his constitutional reforms at the last minute in September. Faced with this situation, the markets are reacting negatively: depreciation of the peso, a fall in the stock market and an increase in country risk.

In addition to the above, in November it is expected that Donald Trump will be the winner of the electoral process in the United States, who is expected to maintain his strategy of attacking Mexico and factors such as migration, tariffs, review of the T-MEC in 2026, among others; which could generate exchange rate pressures for the rest of the year.

In the same vein, Alejandro Saldaña, Chief Economist at Grupo Financiero Ve por Más (BX+), shared that, given the recent significant events that were not included in their year-end forecast, which originally ranged between 17.9 and 18.3 pesos per dollar, “it will have to be considered that Mexican assets might possibly trade with a higher risk premium and be somewhat more volatile going forward. However, the country continues to offer some favorable aspects, such as healthy public finances, a strong external position, and attractive interest rates.”

In 2016, when Donald Trump won, the peso depreciated 22% between May and November. “The exchange rate will close this year at 19 pesos or more. Once this situation has passed, the price would return next year to levels closer to 18 pesos ,” identified John Soldevilla.

In this context, companies that participate in foreign trade, such as transportation firms, benefit from a depreciation of the exchange rate, which is generated after a strong appreciation experienced in recent years (around 20%).

“The current 11% depreciation only partially compensates for the losses generated in these years by pesifying its export income. The same applies to freight motor carriers. If the latter have accounts receivable in dollars for 30, 60 or 90 days, it is advisable that they allow the time established in their contracts to pass, since the Mexican peso may remain under pressure for the rest of the year. This would cause an exchange gain and improve their balance sheets for the year,” Soldevilla Canales points out.

In the perspective of Alejandro Saldaña, Mexican exporters are taking the depreciation of the peso in a good way, “because they would be receiving more pesos for each dollar, in addition to gaining more competitiveness in international markets. Likewise, the consumption of locally produced goods could be more in demand over those that are imported, as the latter become more expensive.”

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