The Mexican economy could grow by 1.5% in 2026 , the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) estimated , due to tensions in the global environment and the application of current restrictive financial conditions.

This projection represents an increase if one considers that the country’s real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in 2025 was 0.8% compared to 2024, according to data from the National Institute of Statistics and Geography (Inegi) .

In its report, ECLAC adjusted its regional growth projection to 2.2% for 2026 , a decrease from the 2.3% estimated by the organization in December of last year. The report indicated that the contraction reflects current global tensions, such as the conflict in the Middle East and tariff policies.

“The deterioration of the external environment is one of the main factors behind the downward revision of regional growth projections,” he said.

According to the organization’s data, growth is projected to slow in 24 of the region’s 33 countries in 2026, while only seven are expected to show an increase. This would mark four consecutive years of projected growth close to 2.3% for the region, “demonstrating a pattern of weak growth potential.”

At the subregional level, South America would grow 2.4% in 2026 , below the 2.9% achieved in 2025, “reflecting a slowdown in most of the economies of the subregion,” according to the most recent projections of ECLAC.

Central America is projected to grow its economy by 2.2% this year , a slight contraction compared to the 2.3% growth forecast for 2025, influenced by anticipated contractions in Cuba and Haiti.  The English- and Dutch-speaking Caribbean is projected to grow by 5.6% , a slight increase from the 5.5% forecast for 2025, driven by projected economic activity in Guyana.

The conflict in the Middle East and geopolitical tensions increased volatility in commodity and financial markets. The price of oil during the first three weeks of April exceeded the average price recorded in December 2015 by 74% , raising production and transportation costs globally, according to the technical report.

ECLAC noted that the World Trade Organization (WTO) projected a 2.7% increase in the volume of trade in goods and services in 2026. This figure contrasts with the 4.7% growth achieved in 2025, indicating a slowdown in the dynamism of global international trade. Meanwhile, central banks are maintaining cautious stances in the face of renewed pressure on consumer price indices.

Regional private consumption is showing less dynamism, while investment is showing signs of a recovery, albeit at moderate levels. Employment growth in the region’s economies is estimated at 1.1% in 2026, compared to 1.5% in 2025 .

Meanwhile, median inflation would be above 3%, due to the rise in imported inputs and logistics expenses, compared to 2.4% last year.

According to the United Nations regional economic commission, risks persist linked to the volatility of international markets and the weakness of domestic demand in countries; in addition to structural factors and constraints of space in public policies that affect the performance in various economies of the region analyzed.

Given this scenario, ECLAC emphasized the need to expand the mobilization of internal and external resources , and to strengthen governance to promote policies that boost investment, increase productivity and strengthen macroeconomic resilience, in a global environment where uncertainty prevails.

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The port of Manzanillo in Colima, Mexico’s largest maritime trade port , suffered one of its most severe operational crises between May and June due to a labor dispute that partially paralyzed its activities and whose consequences are already reflected in its figures.

In May of this year, the port recorded the movement of 298,923 20-foot containers (TEU) , the lowest monthly figure so far in 2025. This is the first time this year that the volume has fallen below 300,000 TEU , after having reached a maximum of 337,670 operations in March.

On May 12, workers at the Manzanillo customs office began a series of demonstrations and work stoppages to denounce alleged labor abuse and unjustified dismissals. These protests continued until May 16, when they were evicted by authorities.

Although the protests lasted only four days, they were enough to destabilize operations at the port . As of May 20, the port was operating with only five inspectors. On June 12, Contecon Manzanillo  announced that, together with  Mexico’s National Customs Agency (ANAM) , they would activate extended 24-hour hours at the Manzanillo customs office for three days to “address peak demand . “

Port rhythm in the country

Despite its internal conflicts, the Port of Manzanillo continues to lead the nation in the number of port operations. However, it registered the steepest decline in May 2025, with a 10.4% drop compared to the same month in 2024. It was followed by the Port of Altamira, Tamaulipas, with a 3% reduction. In contrast, Lázaro Cárdenas, Michoacán, reported a 12.6% growth , while Ensenada, Baja California, registered a 6.2% increase, based on data from the Ministry of the Navy (Semar) .

From January to May, the port of Manzanillo recorded 1.59 million operations , followed by the port of Lázaro Cárdenas with 1.028 million; the port of Veracruz with 509,427; Altamira with 373,428; and Ensenada with 170,576 operations.

However, the port that saw the greatest annual growth in accumulated operations was Lázaro Cárdenas, with an increase of 12.9% , followed by Altamira, Tamaulipas, with 2.3%; while the port of Veracruz recorded the largest decline, with a contraction of 4.6%, followed by Manzanillo, with a decrease of 1%.

The recent crisis in Manzanillo not only highlighted the operational fragility of Mexico’s most important port in the face of conflicts, but also raised alarm bells about the need to modernize its processes to maintain operations. While the ports of Lázaro Cárdenas and Ensenada benefited from what happened in Manzanillo , the challenge for this port will be to demonstrate that its leadership depends not only on its numbers, but also on its ability to manage and overcome crises like those of last May.

(Main image source: @ASIPONA_Man ) .

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