Volatility has ceased to be a passing phenomenon and has become a permanent condition that is transforming the operation of supply chains worldwide , according to the State of Logistics 2026 Report  prepared by Kearney and presented by Penske Logistics during the annual conference of the Council of Supply Chain Management Professionals (CSCMP) .

The study concludes that carriers and logistics providers face an environment of persistent disruption , in which cost pressures, geopolitical uncertainty, energy volatility and labor restrictions have ceased to be temporary factors and have become structural conditions that demand continuous adaptation.

Among the main findings, the report notes that logistics costs for US companies amounted to $2.4051 billion in 2025, a decrease of 1.0% compared to the $2.4302 billion recorded in 2024.

It also identifies five forces that continue to define the macroeconomic environment : asymmetric global growth; tighter financial conditions due to persistent inflation and rising public debt; the accelerated realignment of trade flows; labor market and productivity constraints; and energy price volatility.

The document also highlights that artificial intelligence has moved beyond the experimental stage to become a tool capable of generating measurable business returns through four capabilities: interpreting, predicting, recommending, and executing. However, it cautions that its adoption remains uneven, as some companies have integrated it into their core operations while others continue to use it only in isolated solutions.

In response to this environment, the report notes that companies are accelerating automation and digital investment to address labor constraints . It also recommends strengthening supply chain resilience, prioritizing asset productivity, expanding end-to-end visibility, and accelerating the return on investment in technology.

“This year’s report comes at a time when the forces reshaping global supply chains are no longer temporary disruptions, but permanent features of the operating environment,” said Korhan Acar, Kearney partner and lead author of the State of Logistics Report.

He added that rising costs stemming from energy volatility, inflation, and geopolitical instability are forcing companies to rethink their operating models, while technologies such as artificial intelligence, robotics, and autonomous transportation are moving toward large-scale implementation.

For his part, Mark Baxa, president and CEO of CSCMP, noted that supply chains require constant adjustments due to the speed at which the business and geopolitical environment evolves, and therefore anticipated that logistics networks will continue to transform in the coming years.

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This was warned by specialists during the presentation of the State of Logistics Report 2025 , presented at the Council of Supply Chain Management Professionals (CSCMP) , in collaboration with Kearney and Penske Logistics .

Paul Bingham , director of Transportation Consulting at S&P Global Market Intelligence , explained that the economic environment has weakened significantly.

“The economy is not in crisis, but it has clearly weakened,” he said.

According to their analysis, US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth is expected to be just 1.3% in 2025 , while global GDP growth is projected to be 2.2% , the lowest rate since 2009 outside the context of the pandemic.

This implies lower aggregate demand, pressure on logistics margins, and a more adverse investment environment.

Furthermore, the high cost of money— derived from high interest rates—has directly impacted inventory management and capital decisions.

“We’re at a point where uncertainty is the only constant. Therefore, the supply chains that survive will be those capable of scenario planning and responding quickly to disruptions or abrupt changes in demand,” Bingham said.

Dynamic inventories and operational flexibility

One of the sectors most sensitive to this environment is retail .  Brendan Dillon , Senior Vice President of Global Inventory, Transportation, and Commerce Management at Target , explained how the company has redesigned its logistics strategy to adapt to changing consumer patterns.

“Consumers are prioritizing essential products and reducing discretionary spending. This directly affects our key categories,” he commented.

In this context, Target has opted for continuous planning , based on short cycles of inventory, demand, and transportation analysis.

“Our network is designed to adapt quickly. We maintain a combination of short- and long-term contracts, with a strategy that includes our own fleet and partnerships with reliable carriers. The goal is to ensure availability, speed, and cost efficiency,” he explained.

In this regard, the company has chosen to maintain long-term strategic relationships with its logistics partners.

“Trust is built on reliability. And loyalty is built on fair prices,” Dillon said.

Ports, between resilience and energy transition

For its part, the Port of Long Beach , one of the largest and most strategic in North America, has also had to adapt to the new normal.

Its director of operations, Noel Hacegaba , highlighted that, despite the drop in imports during 2023, volumes have regained strength.

“The US economy has proven surprisingly resilient. In May, we had our best month since 2020. This reflects a recovery in consumer spending and greater stability in supply chains,” he commented.

Hacegaba also emphasized the port’s long-term planning , which includes investments of $3.2 billion in infrastructure over the next decade .

These will focus primarily on expanding rail capacity and accelerating the transition to zero-emission operations.

“Currently, 25% of our cargo leaves by rail. We want to increase that figure to 35% to reduce our carbon footprint and improve logistics efficiency. We are convinced that the future of the port is intermodal, electric, and automated,” he stated.

3PLs, more than operators, strategic partners

In an environment of high operational complexity, third-party logistics providers (3PLs) have gained prominence as key allies in managing uncertainty.

Andy Moses , SVP of Strategy and Sales at Penske Logistics , said supply chains are facing unprecedented pressure to become more resilient, but also more efficient.

“Logistics is more important today than ever. Companies want flexibility, real-time visibility, and responsiveness. And that requires close collaboration between customers and logistics operators,” he emphasized.

Moses explained that customers demand integrated , data-driven solutions that can adapt to market fluctuations.

“It’s no longer enough to simply move merchandise. We must anticipate, redirect, optimize, and, above all, inform,” he said.

Along these lines, Korhan Acar , a partner at Kearney and lead author of the report, warned that the greatest potential for logistics efficiency lies not in the origin of the products, but in their transportation.

“The supply chain is increasingly decentralized, but logistics remains the major bottleneck,” he said.

One of the study’s key findings is the persistent inefficiency of backhaul : only 20% of return journeys are properly utilized.

“This represents a massive loss of value. With Artificial Intelligence (AI), we can redesign routes and loads to address this structural inefficiency,” he explained.

Acar also noted that the digital maturity of many companies remains low , as the adoption of generative AI, digital twins, and automation is underway but not yet uniform.

Experts agreed that in a challenging environment, the most successful companies will be those that plan with vision, collaborate intelligently, and embrace technology as a driving force for transformation .

“Every dollar invested in logistics today must yield double. And that can only be achieved with timely information, flexible processes, and a network aligned with the business,” said Acar.

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Global logistics is navigating increasingly turbulent waters. Geopolitical disruptions, trade tensions, regulatory restrictions, and extreme weather events have created a constantly uncertain environment for supply chains.

In this context, the Council of Supply Chain Management Professionals (CSCMP) , in collaboration with Kearney and Penske Logistics , presented the State of Logistics Report 2025 , an annual thermometer on the health and transformation of the logistics ecosystem, which this year is entitled Navigating through the fog .

“We expected greater visibility for 2024, but what we got was more fog. We entered 2025 with new complexities: protracted conflicts like those in Ukraine and the Middle East, blockages in strategic corridors like the Suez Canal and the Panama Canal, and a wave of tariff policies with profound implications for global flows,” explained Korhan Acar, a partner at Kearney and lead author of the report.

To respond to this changing context, the 2025 report incorporated a more robust methodology.

The firm has added Kearney Foresight , its forward-looking analysis division, to its team , specializing in modeling scenarios for systemic shocks.

In addition, the sample of interviews with logistics and transportation industry executives was doubled, allowing for a more precise identification of stress and resilience issues.

“Resilience has ceased to be a differentiator and has become an operational requirement. Efficiency or low costs are no longer enough; the chains that survive are those that can adapt quickly to any disruption,” said Acar.

Logistics costs grow and consolidate

One of the most significant findings is the increase in total logistics spending in the United States, which reached $2.3 billion , equivalent to 8.8% of nominal GDP.

This represented an increase of $135 billion compared to 2023 , marking a new structural level following the changes induced by the pandemic.

“We’re seeing a stabilization at a higher point. For many companies, logistics costs are no longer a secondary line of business; they’re now strategic, visible, and decisive for profitability,” Acar noted.

The report shows that trucking fell 0.7% in value due to a decrease in fares and overcapacity, although the market is beginning to stabilize.

Maritime transport saw the greatest growth, with a 93.1% increase in spending, driven by rate increases on Asia-US routes of up to 77% and a string of disruptions such as the Red Sea crisis, the drought in the Panama Canal, port congestion, and strikes on the US East Coast; even a tariff pause was enough to temporarily boost rates.

In parallel, air transport grew 8.6%, driven by e-commerce, express shipments, and diversions from maritime transport.

Although airfares fell 3%, high demand and fleet reductions by FedEx and UPS kept the sector under pressure.

Growth is expected to be 6% by 2025 , although reforms such as the de minimis reform could reduce international demand for small packages

In this regard, parcel delivery increased by 2.2%, driven by the continued growth of e-commerce , which represents 16.4% of retail sales in the United States and up to 50% in China.

Rail transport, meanwhile, grew modestly by 0.8%, with an 8% increase in intermodal volumes, although pressured by lower trucking rates.

General cargo volumes fell 3%, especially in coal, minerals, and metals. The outlook is cautious given truck competition and the weak industrial recovery.

In storage , the market stabilized and vacancy increased, but at a slower pace than in previous years. Rents grew by 5%, and subleases reached record levels.

Net takeup and new construction fell sharply. Contracts signed during the pandemic will expire in one to three years, which could lead to disruptions, and the popularity of bonded warehouses has also increased.

In terms of inventories , 58% of shippers maintained stable levels, while 27% reduced them and 15% increased them.

Although a destocking process was expected , it did not materialize due to front-loading in response to potential tariffs. The logistics inventory index rose from 60.7 to 73, indicating an expectation of expansion in the remainder of 2025.

One of the most striking findings is the so-called barbell effect on delivery speed.

On the one hand, giants like Amazon are consolidating consumer expectations of same-day or next-day delivery, which has become a key competitive differentiator. On the other hand, there is a solid consumer base that prioritizes cost over speed.

In this segment, delivery accuracy is more important than speed.

This change has opened the door to greater diversification of logistics providers.

Startups, carriers, and regional transporters are gaining ground against larger national carriers, as UPS strengthens its rural delivery network and Amazon expands its role as a third-party carrier nationwide.

From reshoring to friendshoring, the global network is reconfigured

Another relevant point of the report is the analysis of relocation strategies.

Far from a massive return of manufacturing to the United States , companies are opting for hybrid models, supplier diversification, expansion into politically neutral countries, and strengthening relationships with trading partners.

“Most aren’t looking to return all of their production. Even with 25% tariffs, the total cost of moving an operation can be higher than keeping it where it is, if there isn’t a clear business case,” Acar said.

He added that only in strategic cases, such as sensitive or high-tech products, is a more drastic measure justified.

In contrast, mergers and acquisitions (M&A) in the logistics sector slowed for the third consecutive year. Regulatory and geopolitical uncertainty led many companies to focus on protecting their operations and optimizing their installed base, rather than growing through acquisitions.

Evolution of 3PL and freight forwarding

3PLs (third-party logistics) and freight forwarders are seeing key growth as strategic partners.

Today’s complexity demands end-to-end solutions , accelerating the adoption of artificial intelligence and automation , as well as a transformation of business models toward more agile and flexible operations.

Investments focus on last mile , regional alliances, and automated warehousing.

The report highlighted a fundamental mindset shift : optimization is no longer a one-time exercise, but an ongoing process. Successful companies combine digital execution with more resilient and dynamic network models, ready to adapt in real time.

“Navigating through the fog requires not only more precise instruments, but also a different mindset. Companies that understand this will be better positioned to face what’s coming,” Acar said.

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The National Council of Logistics and Supply Chain Executives (ConaLog) announced that it has signed a collaboration agreement with the Council of Supply Chain Management Professionals (CSCMP) through which they will offer a broader value proposition for logistics and supply chain professionals in Mexico and Latin America.

According to what was shared by the association, this alliance has the joint mission of revolutionizing the supply chain and logistics industry in Mexico , taking advantage of the unique strengths and resources of both organizations.

Through this dynamic and forward-looking collaboration, new standards of excellence will be established in the offering of products and services to professionals in the region.

Sandra Aragonez , president of ConaLog, revealed that with this agreement the association will raise the value proposition offered to ConaLog members and followers; in addition to improving the platform of its events, incorporating world-renowned speakers and global perspectives of the sector grounded in the local environment.

He added that ConaLog’s goal is to provide unparalleled value to its partners and continue to further boost the logistics and supply chain industry in Mexico.

Javier Zarazúa , country manager of CSCMP in Mexico, added that they will collaborate with ConaLog on innovative research initiatives, focused on key trends and developments in the Mexican logistics sector.

As a first major step, the CSCMP will support the creation of the next edition of the Logistics Performance Indicators Study in Mexico , which ConaLog generates in conjunction with chambers, associations and consultants in the sector.

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After the different moments of disruption that have occurred over the last four years, especially with the pandemic, logistics costs in supply chains in the United States are decreasing, according to the State of Logistics 2024 from the Council of Supply Chain Management Professionals (CSCMP) , in conjunction with Penske and Kearney .

Josh Brogan, partner at Kearney, highlighted during the presentation that the study data is the result of a careful analysis of information, together with opinions from specialists in the logistics sector, which has allowed them to have an approach to the world of logistics.

“This report has a strong collaboration between the CSCMP party and Penske, providing an understanding of industry best practices to reach out to the broader community and provide information from the transportation provider’s point of view, through Penske, and from a combination of members and colleagues within CSCMP,” he said.

In this sense, the study showed that United States commercial logistics costs or USBLC (United State Business Logistics Costs) fell 10% to 2.4 trillion dollars or approximately 8.7% of GDP.

Brogan explained that this trend was seen coming after the impacts of covid in 2020, so logistics costs are now stabilizing in some modalities.

Storage costs decreased 13.9%, with historically high occupancy and rents, but declining rents and demand have created more difficult conditions than in previous years.

In the case of railways , costs fell 1.7%, mainly driven by intermodal transport , with profitability hit by a greater number of personnel, fuel and labor.

“Overall rail traffic has increased year over year, but what we see is an overall decline in revenue for Class 1 railroads – we saw a 2% decline in revenue, which translates to an 11% decline in operating income, driven by small increases in volume. Intermodal volumes have decreased considerably, 6% less than in 2022, resulting in a negative result overall, so the outlook for rail remains positive,” said Josh Brogan.The specialist added that the use of cross-border railways is beginning to be seen for different activities, such as manufacturing and localized production, so the rails benefit from that.

For its part, the cost of land transportation by truck decreased by 8.6%, as demand remains weak and capacity remains stable. Market exits in the face of weak demand are present, but at lower levels than expected.

Air freight , which has benefited in recent years from e-commerce, declined by 15.4% as cargo capacity in the bellies of passenger planes comes online and ocean carriers pivot to air cargo.

“For air travel we saw a double-digit decline in total spending in this mode and this comes from relatively high rates on the 20th, 21st and 2022, we saw those rates decrease to some extent in 2022, but we really saw them decrease in 2023 , and 2024 is starting to look a lot like 2023, we hope that there may be greater interest in air transport as we see disruptions in maritime mode,” Brogan noted.

For its part, spending on maritime transportation decreased by 64.2%, mainly due to the normalization of inflation in maritime rates and the reduction in container traffic.

“From a macroeconomic perspective, we are seeing that growth is expected to remain relatively weak until the end of the decade, this is a central driver of logistics activity, when the economy grows obviously so does the demand for logistics services,” said Josh Brogan.

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