Global trade is undergoing a transformation due to the growing demand for essential minerals, including lithium, cobalt, nickel, copper and rare earth elements, which are fundamental to clean energy technologies, electrification, digitalization and the energy transition , warned the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) .

According to the latest  World Trade Update , the international organization indicated that demand for lithium is expected to increase by 353% between 2024 and 2040, while demand for graphite is expected to rise by 131%.

“Clean technologies are expected to account for a larger share of demand. Their share of lithium demand is projected to increase from 62% in 2024 to 87% in 2040,” he stated.

The report stressed the need to diversify supply sources , improve market transparency and strengthen international cooperation, which could contribute to open, stable, secure, transparent, rules-based and sustainable trade.

UNCTAD specified that the supply of essential minerals for the energy transition is concentrated in reserves, mining, processing and refining.

“This concentration is especially acute in processing and refining, where the highest value activities take place,” he pointed out.

In that regard, he noted that in 2025, the Democratic Republic of Congo  accounted for 74% of global cobalt production,  Indonesia for 67% of nickel, and  China  for 69% of rare earth elements, reflecting the concentration of critical mineral supply in just a few countries.

“Diversifying processing capacity, promoting recycling, and strengthening national value chains will take time. It will also require long-term investment and coordinated political support,” the analysis emphasized.

He added that governments are increasingly turning to trade policy to secure access to critical minerals, strengthen industrial competitiveness, and build more resilient supply chains.

“Since 2020, nearly 100 new export measures have been introduced on minerals essential for the energy transition, including 37 licensing requirements, 31 export taxes, 29 export bans, and one export quota. The Democratic Republic of Congo has introduced the largest number of measures, followed by China and Indonesia,” he noted.

The study analyzed 73 collaboration agreements, 58 of which were signed since 2022. These agreements are helping to reshape supply chains by combining trade, industrial, and investment policy instruments.

Agreements involving developing countries tend to focus more on extraction, with fewer provisions to support value addition.

UNCTAD considered that trade in critical minerals is at a crossroads, as it can either boost export earnings, investment and structural transformation in developing countries, or it can reinforce extractive models and fragment markets into rival blocs.

In response, the organization indicated that  greater international cooperation and political coherence are essential.

“Trade policy must support both the development needs of developing countries rich in critical minerals and the global transition to a digital and low-carbon economy,” he said.

The report comes in a context where the United States has imposed export restrictions on semiconductor technology to China, where the Asian country has responded with export controls on graphite, gallium and germanium.

Meanwhile, Mexico and the United States established a joint action plan on critical minerals with the aim of ensuring the supply of essential inputs for various key sectors of industry.

The plan includes regulations for the extraction, processing, and trade of these minerals. It also outlines technical and regulatory cooperation , as well as research and development of new technologies in this area, among other aspects.

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Mexico and the United States will work on a joint action plan regarding critical minerals – cobalt, copper,
fluorite, gallium, magnesium, and others – with the goal of ensuring the supply of essential inputs for various key sectors of industry, reported Marcelo Ebrard, head of the Ministry of Economy (SE) .

The federal official noted that this will be carried out through binational cooperation , and within a framework of respect and adherence to the legislation of both countries.

“We want to ensure the supply of important minerals to our industry. Since we are highly integrated with the United States, we need to support each other,” Ebrard explained.

In this regard, the Ministry of Economy indicated that Mexico and its northern neighbor will work to achieve a new paradigm for preferential trade in critical minerals, supported by minimum prices . The goal is to ensure the mutual resilience of supply chains .

The work plan on critical minerals was developed within the framework of talks with Jamieson Greer, United States Trade Representative , aimed at reviewing the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) .

On January 28, Ebrard and Greer held a meeting in which they discussed a series of potential reforms to the trade agreement, including  stricter rules of origin for key industrial goods . They also agreed to continue their collaboration on critical minerals .

For his part, Jamieson Greer announced on February 4 the promulgation of the Action Plan with Mexico on Critical Minerals , which, he stressed, is the first project of its kind.

In a statement, he elaborated that this plan represents an important step to strengthen bilateral cooperation and increase supply chain resilience with like-minded partners, as the joint review of the USMCA approaches.

According to the agreement, Mexico and the United States will discuss the feasibility and development of coordinated trade policies and mechanisms, including adjusted minimum border prices for imports of critical minerals.

The plan includes regulations for the extraction, processing, and trade of these minerals . It also outlines technical and regulatory cooperation , as well as research and development of new technologies in this area, among other aspects.

Mexico and the United States, the statement indicated, will give priority to financing and other regulatory support measures for mining, processing and manufacturing projects for critical minerals of mutual interest in the United States, Mexico or third countries.

According to the Intergovernmental Forum on Mining, Minerals, Metals and Sustainable Development (IGF), critical minerals are raw materials—minerals and metals—necessary to generate renewable energy, produce technologies, and facilitate sustainable transformation.

According to the organization, critical minerals such as copper, cobalt, nickel, lithium, and graphite are used in the manufacture of electric vehicles and mobile, digital devices, as well as information technologies, hence the importance of maintaining an action plan on these types of materials.

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