In an economic environment of global uncertainty, geopolitical pressures and an internal slowdown, access to reliable information has become the main strategic asset for the wholesale channel in Mexico, said Rolando Contreras , partner and director of the Grocery Division of ISCAM .

During his presentation at GS1 Mexico ‘s Business Factory , the specialist posed an analogy: operating without data in the sector is like “being in an unknown city, without language and without tools to make decisions” .

In that sense, he pointed out that two decades ago the wholesale sector in Mexico faced precisely that scenario: a market with high potential, but without the visibility or intelligence to measure it.

“If you don’t have information, you can hardly survive,” he stressed.

Contreras explained that the evolution of the wholesale channel has been closely linked to the generation of market intelligence. 

Today, the channel not only has aggregated data, but also detailed transactional information that allows us to understand who is buying, how they are buying, and what trends are prevailing. This has been key to consolidating wholesale as a pillar of consumption in Mexico .

Currently, the channel represents about 1.5% of the national Gross Domestic Product (GDP) , distributes about 80% of the goods  that arrive at the corner store and serves more than 600,000 traditional points of sale.

A channel that didn’t disappear, but transformed

Contrary to predictions from decades ago, when its disappearance was anticipated in the face of large stores, wholesale not only survived, but adapted .

Among its main transformations are the evolution towards formats such as cash & carry , greater proximity to the end customer, integration with marketplaces and e-commerce and diversification of self-service points of sale.

“Today, wholesalers are stepping out of their comfort zone to become more competitive and reduce logistical and security risks,” he explained.

The executive warned that the current environment is marked by trade tensions led by the United States, restrictive monetary policies to contain inflation, and reduced liquidity and economic slowdown.

For Mexico, this translates into an estimated growth of just 3.3% by 2026 , a drop in investment stemming from political and trade uncertainty, a decrease in remittances, and weak consumer confidence.

Furthermore, factors such as insecurity and regulatory changes continue to affect investment decisions.

Despite the environment, consumption, which represents about 60% of GDP, remains resilient, although with significant changes.

Consumers are shifting towards cheaper products , prioritizing essential goods, and decreasing the frequency of purchases, but increasing the volume per visit.

In 2025, the wholesale channel registered a growth of 3.7% in value and barely 0.5% in volume , reflecting a market driven more by price than by real demand.

By 2026, ISCAM projected a growth of 4.3% , driven mainly by inflation, exchange rate stability, events such as the World Cup and the strength of the traditional channel.

However, Contreras emphasized that it will be a “defensive” year, with significant risks such as insecurity, weakening remittances, logistical pressure, and high dependence on external factors.

“Consumption will remain, but it will be more cautious. We won’t see aggressive expansion, but rather a market that seeks to sustain itself,” he stressed.

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Last November, a downward trend in consumer confidence was recorded in Mexico, according to data from the National Institute of Statistics and Geography (Inegi)  and the  Bank of Mexico (Banxico)  published this Friday.

According to the  Consumer Confidence Indicator (CCI), a drop of 1.6 points  was reported   compared to October 2025, to stand at  44.2 points , which represented its third consecutive monthly decline.

The year-on-year decrease was more significant. Compared to November 2024, the decline was 3.5 units .

Within it, and with seasonally adjusted figures, monthly reductions were observed in the five components that make up the ICC , which reinforces the perception of economic uncertainty in the face of constant trade changes due to the escalation of tariffs.

Variations in the components of the ICC

Regarding the components of the Consumer Confidence Index (CCI), the largest monthly decrease was observed in the expected economic situation of the country in 12 months compared to the current situation , with a drop of 2.4 points. This was followed by the current economic situation of the country compared to that of 12 months ago , with a decrease of 2.3 points.

The expected economic situation of household members in 12 months compared to the current situation decreased by 1 point compared to October 2025.

The current economic situation of household members compared to that of 12 months ago registered a monthly decrease of 0.9 units, while the current possibilities of household members compared to those of a year ago to make furniture purchases fell by 0.8 units.

In its annual measurement, the components that showed the greatest decreases were the expected economic situation of the country within 12 months compared to the current one, with a decline of 8.2 points; as well as the economic situation of the country today compared to that of 12 months ago, with a decrease of 6.6 units.

November data from the ICC reflect a less confident outlook for the Mexican economy  and suggest greater caution in Mexican household spending.

According to Inegi, it is important to measure the Consumer Confidence Indicator, since it allows us to know the perception of consumers about their current economic situation and that of the country, as well as their expectations.

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