The conflict in the Middle East impacted air cargo demand during March 2026, registering a 4.8% year-on-year drop , the International Air Transport Association (IATA) reported .

The agency detailed that capacity, measured in available cargo ton-kilometers (ACTK), also showed a negative trend, decreasing 4.7% year-on-year.

“This was primarily due to severe disruptions at major Gulf (Persian) hubs because of the war in the Middle East. The usual timing of the post-Lunar New Year slowdown also contributed to the decline. Importantly, air cargo networks are providing the necessary flexibility to support global supply chains as they adapt to geopolitical, tariff, and operational tensions. All eyes are on fuel supply and pricing, which are expected to test the industry’s resilience in the coming months,” said Willie Walsh, IATA’s Director General.

IATA indicated that Middle Eastern airlines experienced a 54.3% year-over-year decrease in air cargo demand in March 2026, the weakest performance of all regions. Capacity decreased 52.4% year-over-year.

“The Middle East was the determining factor in the industry’s performance. Cargo tonne-kilometers (CTK) contracted by 54.3% year-on-year, reflecting the sharpest decline among all major markets, as the conflict disrupted hub connectivity and reduced aircraft utilization,” Walsh emphasized.

The agency pointed out that jet fuel prices rose sharply in March , up to 106.6% year-on-year, along with a 43.1% increase in crude oil costs and a 320% increase in refining margins during the period.

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“I expected the increase to be phased in over two periods, but they raised it all at once by 10% in the first half of the year, and I told my operator, ‘You can’t raise it again in the second half of the year, I just can’t take it anymore.’” The voice of a transportation user encapsulates a pressure that has ceased to be exceptional and has become a constant: the direct impact of geopolitics on logistics costs and business operations in Mexico.

What until a few years ago was perceived as distant conflicts —particularly in regions like the Middle East— now has concrete effects on the cost structure of supply chains .

Geographical distance is no longer a buffer; in an interconnected environment, any tension translates into immediate adjustments in prices, routes and availability of inputs.

In this new global landscape, geopolitical conflicts have ceased to be isolated events and have become catalysts for economic transformations . As Sergio Hernández, president and CEO of CIAL Dun & Bradstreet in Mexico, warns, “geopolitical conflicts are generating greater fragmentation of global trade and a regionalization of supply chains.”

One of the most immediate transmission channels is the energy market. The rise in oil prices—driven by international tensions, according to the Mexican Institute for Competitiveness (IMCO) —has a dual effect for Mexico: it increases oil revenues, but at the same time raises the cost of containing gasoline prices through tax incentives.

In scenarios like the current one, that benefit can be diluted, as already happened in 2022 with the subsidy to the Special Tax on Production and Services (IEPS).

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The impact is no longer new, but it is more profound. After weeks of diesel price increases , the freight transport sector is beginning to feel not only the rise in costs, but also a more complex imbalance: falling tariffs, stifled demand, and an international environment that continues to put pressure on the energy market.

The global context has set the tone. The rise in crude oil prices, driven by the conflict in the Middle East, led to diesel price increases of nearly 10% nationwide in a matter of weeks , in a country where dependence on imports remains crucial. But on the ground, the reality is more straightforward: profit margins are shrinking.

Currently, diesel is priced at around 28.5 pesos per liter nationwide , with some regions already exceeding 29 pesos.

“With the increase in diesel prices, they are killing us,” said Martín González Márquez, commercial manager of  Transport Martin .

The trend had already been developing. Throughout 2025, diesel prices showed an upward trajectory , with a more pronounced increase toward the end of that year and the beginning of 2026, reflecting the accumulated pressure on transportation operating costs. The problem is not just the increase itself, but how it is absorbed.

In practice, the sector operates under two models: companies that partially absorb the impact to maintain competitiveness and others that pass it on directly to the end customer. However, both models face limitations.

“The carrier cannot absorb it… we have to index the increase in diesel to the tariff,” explained Fernando Chacón, general director of Setramex .

He added that negotiations are no longer general but rather case-by-case with each client, in an environment where volatility complicates any immediate adjustments . Passing on the cost is inevitable, but not immediate.

“You pass on the increase… and at the end of the day, the end consumer is the one who ends up paying,” agreed Bernabé García González, general manager of Altamira Logística de Carga .

However, the gap between the fuel price increase and the tariff adjustments is what is currently causing the greatest financial pressure on companies. This is compounded by an even more adverse environment.

“Rates are going down and diesel is going up… it’s unsustainable,” warned Benjamín Barrera Muñoz, commercial director of Santa Fe de Guanajuato Express .

In this scenario, diesel is not just another input: it’s the main operating cost for transportation , and any variation directly impacts profitability. Beyond the short term, the effect is already spreading throughout the entire supply chain.

The increase in fuel prices not only puts pressure on transporters, but also anticipates adjustments in the price of goods, in a domino effect that is beginning to be reflected in different sectors of the economy.

Meanwhile, the sector remains attentive to decisions from the federal government, as today (March 26), during the morning press conference at the National Palace, an announcement is expected regarding a support package for the trucking industry , the scope of which is still to be detailed, but which generates anticipation about the price of diesel at a key moment for the industry.

For now, the transportation sector is beginning to reconfigure its operations amid more complex negotiations, narrower margins, and decisions that, in many cases, define the viability of the business in the short term.

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