Confidence in transportation and logistics at the end of the second quarter of 2025 (2Q25) showed a constant decline and an unfavorable outlook , according to more than 140 executives and businesspeople involved in this industry who were surveyed for the Transportation and Logistics Confidence Index (ICTYL) , developed by T21 Business Intelligence.

Generated since the first quarter of 2018 (1Q18), the ICTYL is an indicator that shows the confidence of the transport and logistics sector, and which at the end of 2Q25 registered four consecutive quarters of decline, this time standing at 78.6 points (1Q18 = 100) .

Like the index, the confidence indicator is also experiencing one of its worst periods. This indicator, above zero, signals optimism; in Q2 2025, it stood at 3.30 points , the third-worst period in the 30 quarters evaluated.

Another fact that highlights the reality of companies in the transportation and logistics sector is the performance of their business during 2Q25, where 46.7% rated it as unfavorable, and while 53.3% considered it favorable, it is the second lowest level, only behind the second quarter of 2020 (2Q20), during the COVID-19 pandemic.

The same happened with the outlook for the third quarter of 2025 (3Q25), where more than 140 participants expressed that they have a 50% expectation for it to be favorable and the same 50% for it to be unfavorable .

ICTYL identified that for the business sector, the pace of the national economy and political uncertainty are the two factors that pose the greatest threat to their businesses.

Regarding the impact of the imposition of tariffs on their businesses, 40% identified the impact as moderate, while only 27% considered it to be significant and have had to modify their operations.

The ICTYL is the only confidence indicator in transportation and logistics that evaluates confidence in the most important business aspects every quarter.

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MONTERREY, NL – In a context where political decisions translate into immediate impacts on supply chains , financial markets, and global economic stability, international trade is going through a moment of tension and redefinition.

During the Redwood Customer Advisory Board 2025 , Mark Yeager, CEO of Redwood Logistics , highlighted the industry outlook in the face of current international trade volatility, amid rising tariff tensions and a constantly adjusting global economy.

Yeager addressed the complex series of trade measures implemented by the Trump administration since February, including tariffs of up to 125% on Chinese-origin products and tariffs of between 20% and 60% on countries such as Japan, India, Vietnam, and Madagascar.

Although these tariffs were temporarily suspended and replaced with a single 10% tariff for a period of 90 days, the impact on the market and consumer confidence has been significant.

“The level of uncertainty we’re experiencing is something I haven’t seen in my 30 years of experience,” Yeager said.

Despite the uncertainty, he emphasized that Mexico has been excluded from the reciprocal tariffs , which represents a positive sign for bilateral trade.

“Mexico has smartly navigated this volatile environment, and its position as a reliable trading partner of the United States has been strengthened,” he said.

During the conference, Yeager contextualized the situation with historical data, indicating that while the United States has always maintained a certain tariff presence, current levels exceed even those recorded during the Great Depression.

“We’re talking about a tariff regime that could reach an average of over 26%, figures we haven’t seen since the beginning of the 20th century,” he emphasized.

Regarding economic indicators, he mentioned that real GDP grew by 2.5% in the last quarter , unemployment remains relatively low (4.2%), and real wages have reached their highest level in five years.

However, consumer sentiment has fallen 28% year-over-year, and markets have reacted negatively, with losses of up to 19.6% on the Nasdaq.

Yeager warned that the biggest enemy of trade and investment is not tariffs themselves, but uncertainty.

“If we truly want to revitalize American industry, we need clarity and confidence. The current instability discourages foreign investment and jeopardizes growth,” he said.

Yeager said that although the trade environment may be shaken, he is confident that the trade relationship between Mexico and the United States will emerge stronger.

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After the electoral process that was experienced in Mexico last June and with a cabinet defined for the next administration, the Transportation and Logistics Confidence Index (ICTYL) reached its best level since this measurement was carried out.

In the survey corresponding to the second quarter of 2024 (2Q24), of the more than 140 managers and businessmen who responded this year, 93.9% stated that 2Q24 was favorable and only 6.1% classified it as unfavorable.

Meanwhile, for 3Q24 the outlook for 93.9% of business owners and managers is favorable, while only 6.1% foresee it as unfavorable; percentages that are coincident.

Regarding the ICTYL index carried out by T21 Business Intelligence, for 2Q24 it was located at 111.3 points (1Q18 = 100), this level is the second best level since 1Q18 when this measurement was carried out, only surpassed by 2Q22 when it was located 111.6 points, that is, for the second quarter of this year it was only 0.3 points below.

Once the electoral process was over and with the virtual president-elect, Claudia Sheinbaum, the members of the ICTYL survey showed a neutral perspective regarding the government that she will lead, especially once the members of her legal cabinet were announced.

Regarding the challenges, insecurity remains the main indicator to maintain the growth rate of your business, this hand in hand with the increase in operating costs.

The National Consumer Price Index (INPC) in the first fortnight of July 2024 registered a variation of 0.71% compared to the previous fortnight. General inflation stood at 5.61%, while compared to the previous year, in the same fortnight of 2023 the record was 0.29% and the annual rate was 4.79%, according to data from the  National Institute of Statistics and Geography (Inegi). ) .

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The National Institute of Statistics and Geography (Inegi) revealed that in June 2024 the manufacturing, commercial and construction sectors in Mexico experienced a slowdown in their business confidence and expectations indicators . The perception of businessmen about the economic situation of the country and their companies showed a downward trend, with notable falls in several key sub-indicators.

During the sixth month of the year, the Aggregate Indicators of Business Trends and Expectations (IAT) of the manufacturing sector were located at 51.0 points, reflecting a monthly decrease of 0.2 points and an annual drop of 1.9 points .

Production fell to 48.9 points and used plant capacity fell to 47.8 points. Although exports increased slightly , other indicators such as national demand for products and total employed personnel also showed declines.

In the construction sector , the IAT stood at 50.5 points, with a slight reduction of 0.3 points compared to May and an annual increase of 2.2 points. However, the value of works executed as main contractor and as subcontractor showed mixed figures, with a drop in the value of works executed as main contractor to 51.7 points.

The commercial sector presented a significant drop, with the IAT falling to 47.2 points, a drop of 4.0 points compared to the previous month and 7.4 points in annual comparison. Net sales and consignment income showed the largest decreases, while total employed personnel remained unchanged.

Regarding non-financial private services , the IAT remained stable at 52.0 points, without monthly variation, but with an annual increase of 1.3 points. Income from the provision of services and national demand for services increased slightly, although expenditure on consumption of goods and services decreased.

On the other hand, Inegi reported that the Business Confidence Indicators (ICE) also reflected a negative trend. The ICE of the manufacturing sector fell to 53.0 points , a decrease of 0.7 points compared to May and an annual drop of 2.5 points. The right time to invest and the current economic situation of the country were the most affected components.

In the construction sector , the ICE fell 0.6 points to 50.0 points, with a notable drop at the right time to invest. Compared to June 2023, the ICE of the construction sector presented an annual drop of 2.4 points.

The ICE of the commerce sector showed a decrease of 3.0 points in monthly comparison, standing at 53.5 points, while the ICE of non-financial private services was reduced to 53.4 points, with a drop of 2.8 points compared to May and 1.9 points annually. . Components related to the right time to invest and the country’s current economic situation showed the largest falls.

In general, the Global Indicator of Business Confidence Opinion (IGOTEC) , which is the weighted average of the indicators of the four sectors, stood at 49.8 points, reflecting an annual drop of 1.7 points. These results indicate a slowdown in business confidence and expectations in Mexico, reflecting current economic conditions and perceptions about the immediate future.

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