According to the Mexican Online Sales Association (AMVO) , El Buen Fin 2025 could exceed 200 billion pesos (mdp) in sales , which would mean a 16% increase compared to the 2024 edition.

Considering the above and that e-commerce represents 25% of current sales, it is important to understand the patterns that organized crime uses to commit crimes such as cargo theft , and which merchandise they target during peak seasons such as El Buen Fin, which will celebrate its 15th anniversary this year and will take place from November 13 to 17.

Luis Villatoro, director of Supply Chain Security & Intelligence Latam at Overhaul , recalled that, according to the Confederation of National Chambers of Commerce, Services and Tourism (Concanaco Servytur) , during El Buen Fin 2024 the most purchased products were electronic devices with 79.4%, clothing and footwear with 15.9%, and white goods and appliances with 4.7 percent .

In the webinar Cargo Thefts in El Buen Fin: What You Need to Know , conducted by Overhaul, Villatoro emphasized the importance of understanding this consumption pattern, since practically 80% of sales were of appliances and electronics, which consequently become a target for criminal groups.

The specialist stated that during November, as a result of El Buen Fin sales, the movement of goods across the country increased by between 20% and 30%.

“Over the past three years, Overhaul’s trend analysis shows that during the El Buen Fin weekend, cargo theft activity in Mexico decreases by 28% and subsequently increases by up to 36%,” he emphasized.

During November, cargo theft in the country increased by 7.6% compared to the monthly trend. Some of the most affected hot products, which could present seasonal increases in cargo theft, are electronics, such as screens, video game consoles, and cell phones , which have an increased risk of up to 38%. “That is, there is a traditional trend regarding the participation of theft in this type of sector,” Villatoro noted.

Appliances are another type of merchandise with increases of up to 29%, clothing and footwear with growth of up to 15%, and auto parts, specifically tires and wheels, with an increase of up to 8 percent.

According to the analysis, delivery van theft is estimated to increase by 19% nationwide in November , driven by the use of these types of vehicles to supply department stores and shopping centers, as well as for last-mile deliveries.

Regarding spatial patterns during this peak season , the states that have historically had the highest incidence of cargo theft with potential increases are, with 31% representative nationwide, the State of Mexico with a risk of increase of 3%.

Also, Puebla with increases of up to 6%, San Luis Potosí with 12%, Jalisco with 8% and Tlaxcala with an increase of up to 9 percent.

Meanwhile, it is estimated that the highways that will likely show the greatest risk are Mexico City-Veracruz with 14%, Mexico City-Saltillo with 11%, Mexico City-Pachuca with 7%, Arco Norte with 6%, Circuito Exterior Mexiquense with 4%, Avenida Jesús Reyes Heroles with 3%, and Atlacomulco-Zapotlanejo with 2%.

Regarding time patterns during El Buen Fin, Villatoro explained that 73% of robberies are projected to occur between Tuesday and Friday , while the most vulnerable times would be between 4:00 a.m. and 8:00 a.m. with 27% of the incidence, as well as between 7:00 p.m. and 11:00 p.m. with 25 percent.

Meanwhile, delivery van thefts are likely to increase by 17% during the last quarter of 2025, according to an analysis of trends over the past three years, due to the increase in merchandise movement due to El Buen Fin 2025 and the Christmas celebrations.

It is expected that 49% of delivery van thefts will occur in the metropolitan areas of the States of Mexico, Jalisco, and Puebla , with the main sectors affected being packaging, household appliances, clothing, and footwear, among others.

Among the measures to reduce cargo theft, Luis Villatoro believes it is necessary to establish a program and identify which layer of electronic and physical security is most appropriate based on the value matrix.

“There are units where you can operate with 30 million pesos if you decide to add the highest levels of electronic security. You can install five GPS devices, a Bluetooth belt, perhaps two or three radio frequency devices, and you also have telematics video within the units, based on the contracts you have established with the service providers,” he emphasized.

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Mexico must focus on making its internal forces more competitive, rather than as a political reaction, as a fundamental national strategy, the business organization emphasized in a statement. It also noted that the country’s defense “cannot be limited to resistance.”

“At Concanaco-Servytur, we believe that domestic consumption—when done consciously—is an act of care, sharing, and commitment. Mexico has a soul in its communities, and every purchase is a way of sowing a future in the neighborhood, the market, and the street where we grew up,” he emphasized.

In this regard, he proposed promoting local consumption, reactivating regional and national tourism, digitizing commerce and services, boosting strategic areas in intermediate cities, and incentivizing value chains with a territorial impact .

The agency considered Trump’s announced measure, scheduled to take effect on August 1, to be “useless, expensive, and counterproductive.” “Imposing tariffs on Mexico would be like putting air conditioning on a broken window.” Furthermore, the potential imposition of such a tax, it emphasized, puts millions of jobs at risk on both sides of the border.

“Mexico and the United States must build solutions, not barriers,” the organization concluded.

There is a bilateral working table: Sheinbaum

In response to Trump’s threat to impose a 30% tariff on Mexican products due to a lack of security results, Sheinbaum asserted that Mexico is doing its partand called on the United States to do its part to combat arms trafficking.

“We’re doing our part; they have to do theirs too. We’ve insisted on controlling the flow of weapons from the United States to Mexico, on arresting people involved in drug trafficking in the United States, and on the United States’ share of the responsibility,” Sheinbaum said at her morning press conference this Monday.

He recalled that there is a bilateral working group and that the goal is to reach an agreement that benefits both countries.

On July 12, Trump published a letter on his Truth Social account detailing the imposition of 30% tariffs on Mexico and accusing the Sheinbaum administration of not doing enough to stop fentanyl trafficking to the United States.

The letter added that if Mexico is successful in combating the cartels and stemming the flow of fentanyl, it would consider adjusting the tariffs , and also warned that additional tariffs would be imposed if Mexico responds with new tariffs on its northern neighbor’s products.

Trump also pointed to, among other factors, the United States’ trade deficit with Mexico, asserting that it is “a major threat to our economy and even to our national security.”

If implemented, the new rate would be added to the tariffs applied by the United States to vehicles and auto parts, steel and aluminum, and the recent 17.09% tariff on Mexican tomatoes that went into effect this Monday, after the United States Department of Commerce announced its withdrawal and termination of the 2019 agreement suspending the antidumping investigation into this fruit from Mexico.

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Employers’ associations and industrial associations have shown their rejection of the 25% tariffs on various Mexican products imposed by the United States, which came into effect on Tuesday, and have joined forces with the President of Mexico, Claudia Sheinbaum , to boost the country’s industrial sector in the face of this situation.

The National Council of the Maquiladora and Export Manufacturing Industry (Index) warned that the tariff measure leaves thousands of jobs unprotected, in addition to unbalancing supply chains and generating uncertainty in the face of the scenario of the relocation of companies in Mexico ( nearshoring ).

In response, she reiterated, through a statement, her commitment to dialogue and the results that can be obtained through it, indicating that they will be attentive to the strategy that Sheinbaum will announce next Sunday in the Zócalo of Mexico City.

Coparmex regrets tariffs

Meanwhile, the Mexican Employers’ Confederation (Coparmex) indicated that the United States tariffs hit the economy, violate the Treaty between Mexico, the United States and Canada (T-MEC) and affect the competitiveness of North America.

The organization regretted this decision by its northern neighbor, as it creates uncertainty in the productive sectors.

“Economic integration between Mexico, the United States and Canada has been a key factor in the development of the three nations, and the imposition of tariff barriers undermines the stability of supply chains and affects productive investment,” he said.

Coparmex explained that it is estimated that the application of these tariffs could lead Mexico into a recession , while the exchange rate could exceed 22 pesos per dollar , which would increase costs for companies and affect the purchasing power of families. “In addition, this would generate inflationary pressures in the United States, mainly affecting consumers.”

“On a political level, the decision imposes additional pressure on Mexico in matters of security and migration, issues that have been used as conditions in the trade relationship,” he added.

He added that the possibility of the Mexican government responding with retaliatory tariff measures remains latent.

“It is essential that any decision in this regard be made based on a rigorous analysis, avoiding collateral damage to the industry and consumers in the three countries,” he added.

In light of this situation, the country reiterated its commitment to defending free and fair trade.

“We urge the Mexican government to take a firm stance and make use of the mechanisms established in the USMCA to challenge this arbitrary measure,” he said.

Concanaco Servytur also issues a position

The Confederation of National Chambers of Commerce, Services and Tourism (Concanaco Servytur) also expressed its concern about the tariffs imposed by the President of the United States, Donald Trump , a measure that, it considered, not only affects the exchange of goods, but also puts at risk the solid integration of services and the investments that sustain the economy of North America.

The agency recalled that several companies with investments in Mexico contribute to the US treasury and, likewise, that the profits generated by these investments are subject to wealth taxes in the United States, strengthening the economy of our northern neighbor.

“Therefore, the proposed tariffs not only affect Mexico, but also have a negative impact on public finances and the American business sector,” he stressed.

He noted that tariffs could lead to a destabilization of supply chains , due to the deep integration of value chains between Mexico and the United States, which implies that tariffs would disrupt the production and distribution of essential goods. He also estimated that there would be an increase in the United States’ trade deficit, as has been observed recently.

In Mexico, it would cause a 12% drop in exports and a 4.4% decrease in GDP , in addition to generating greater economic uncertainty, affecting foreign investment and business confidence.

In light of this, he called for strengthening diplomatic strategy, defending free trade and diversifying markets.

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Farid Hannan, director general of the North American Unit of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs (SRE) , indicated that the Government of Mexico is doing everything possible to maintain a competitive North American region, in the face of threats of 25% tariffs on Mexican products by the United States.

At the Foreign Trade Congress. Globalization, Trade Agreements and Geopolitics: Impact on Business Growth , organized by Concanaco Servytur , Hannan pointed out that China has been mentioned a lot lately. “If you read the executive order, the three executive orders published by the President of the United States, Donald Trump , put Mexico and China in the same paragraph.”

He said that the above is a narrative that is very strong in the United States, especially in Washington, and can be harmful, “because let’s say that we are a bit in the middle, and the narrative is that China has a very important presence in Mexico.”

The reality is different from what is reported in the American media, he pointed out, and said that of the total investment that China makes in North America, 95% goes to Canada and the United States and less than 5% goes to Mexico.

In this regard, he pointed out that it is not that Mexico does not want investment or trade with China, “but it is one thing that they are using Mexico as a way to enter the United States and that there is an exorbitant investment, and another thing is not wanting business from that Asian country.”

He recalled that the same thing happened in 2019 as in 2025 with the threat of tariffs if illegal migration was not stopped, and pointed out that because of that precedent, we already know how to negotiate with Trump’s team, since we have the advantage of knowing it.

On another topic, the official said that the SRE offers support to promote products and services offered abroad. “We have representations practically all over the world. We have a consular network, the largest in the world in the United States.”

He said that in order to facilitate foreign trade, samples of products can be sent to other countries via diplomatic bag to reduce costs, especially for small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs).

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Small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) need to know the market, as well as various operating rules in order to export their products; they also require support from state and federal governments and private enterprise to reach other countries, experts agreed.

At the conference SMEs and Export: Strategies to Internationalize Your Business , held at the Foreign Trade Congress. Globalization, Trade Agreements and Geopolitics: Impact on Business Growth , organized by  Concanaco Servytur , Daniella Martínez , vice president of Businesswomen at the business organization, said that 90% of companies in Mexico are SMEs, and that only 9% of exporting firms are small and medium-sized enterprises.

“We need to look at these companies in order to promote and democratize trade,” said Martínez, who said that it is necessary to see how SMEs can be supported so that they can export and be more productive, “because they do not know how to do it,” he stressed.

“They must have a logistics distribution plan and get into the topic of digitalization, automation and technology, as well as have an export project, among other factors,” he said.

Martínez said that states and authorities must support the implementation of these steps, in which private initiatives would also have to intervene.

Juliana Mutis , CEO and founder of Minkadev , said that the protectionist policy that Donald Trump , President of the United States, seeks to impose, is making Mexico turn towards market diversification, which involves other factors and regulations, such as environmental ones, as is the case in Europe, which has a higher standard in this matter.

“This makes the work of SMEs more complicated, which means they have to comply with new environmental regulations,” he said.

Among other challenges for exporting, the specialist considered that technology, to meet sustainability goals, is another point to consider, since it leads to a green transition, which can lead to new markets.

“The green transition involves the creation of new jobs so that companies are more competitive,” Mutis stressed.

Meanwhile, Tania Caldu , director of Amazon ‘s Global Sales Program for Latin America , said that the company has a Global Sales program that is focused on Latin America and seeks to remove that barrier for SMEs to expand their businesses to the United States.

In this regard, he stressed that the marketplace giant offers support to these types of companies to advise them on their exports and helps them create a logistics plan.

He also said that Mexico has great potential for online commerce to increase, since companies that are in this program have grown 20% due to cross-border trade.

According to Mordor Intelligence , the freight and logistics market in Mexico is growing rapidly and is estimated to reach $171.4 billion by 2029. This growth is driven by increased cross-border trade.

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Digitalization in the Mexican customs system is one of the objectives currently being pursued to modernize these strategic points for the national economy, which is why resources have been implemented that involve the use of Artificial Intelligence (AI) and other technologies.

Within the framework of the Foreign Trade Congress. Globalization, trade agreements and geopolitics: Impact on business growth , David Merino , Vice President of Regulatory Innovation, Information Security and Compliance Officer of Concanaco Servytur , highlighted that what the digital transformation process seeks in foreign trade is to streamline processes, reduce costs, have security and control, as well as have more foreign trade.

He pointed out that AI helps automate customs processes and randomly select goods, which makes the work of logistics operators and agents easier.

“Artificial Intelligence as such, when used properly, will allow us to identify risk factors and that is the important part of implementing this technology,” he stressed at the conference Areas to modernize in infrastructure, logistics and customs for connectivity with the evolving world .

He said that in the logistics area, we also have to start looking at how to interact with the main operators in Mexico in order to carry out the maneuvers in a more efficient and safe way.

He pointed out that there is also the issue of radio frequency identification, and that the implementation of QR Codes , which is already being worked on and developed, is also important.

Meanwhile, Paul Martinez , Vice President of Customs at Concanaco, said that the North American region needs to improve its logistics performance to take advantage of the relocation of production lines in Mexico ( nearshoring ).

He emphasized that regional goals include placing the United States and Canada within the top 10 of the World Bank’s Logistics Performance Index by 2030, and Mexico in the top 20 of the same ranking by 2040.

During his participation, Martínez said that among the areas of opportunity in the sector are training , standardization , since there is no homogenization of criteria on foreign trade operations, as well as transparency .

Among the strategic projects, he highlighted the safe customs operation, the modernization of customs, and their professionalization.

The specialist pointed out that customs are essential to take advantage of nearshoring and the development of the south-southeast is key for Mexico to have sustained growth.

According to the National Customs Agency of Mexico (ANAM) , the country has 50 customs offices , of which 21 are border, 17 maritime and 12 inland .

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