The Mexican automotive sector closed 2025 in an adverse economic environment and faces 2026 under a climate of high uncertainty , particularly due to the review of the Treaty between Mexico, the United States and Canada (USMCA) , warned Guillermo Rosales, executive president of the Mexican Association of Automotive Distributors (AMDA) .

The weakening of the market , he explained, is not due to an isolated event, but rather to a combination of various economic indicators that have been deteriorating over the past year. Among these, he highlighted gross fixed investment, which has fallen for 13 consecutive months, as well as the decline in business confidence.

Adding to this internal context is the uncertainty in the international environment, particularly due to adjustments in the trade relationship with the United States and the review process of the USMCA, which will be decisive for the sector’s performance in 2026, Rosales noted.

In their opinion, this scenario has directly influenced companies’ investment and fleet renewal decisions.

The impact of this environment was strongly reflected in market behavior during 2025. According to the CEO of AMDA , the sector registered a 31% drop, which meant that one in three vehicles were not sold compared to 2024, with negative effects on manufacturing, the distribution chain, the production of auto parts and the legal environment that the industry requires to operate.

For 2026, Rosales anticipated that a recovery that would allow overcoming the previous year’s decline is not expected; however, the outlook would be less serious , particularly in the heavy vehicle segment , where an increase of close to 10% in sales is projected, although still in a context of caution.

The review of the USMCA and the handling of potential tariffs will be, in this sense, the factors that will have the greatest impact on the sector’s performance this year.

Industry representatives stressed the need for this process to begin not with the imposition of tariffs, but with the preservation of the free trade system that has governed trade relations in North America.

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The uncertainty generated by the United States’ economic policy with the imposition of tariffs has affected business confidence when deciding to invest, according to the Global Indicator of Business Opinion Confidence (IGOEC) , which stood at 48.6 points last April , as revealed this Friday by the  National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI) .

According to figures obtained from the  Monthly Business Opinion Survey (EMOE) , this weighting represented a drop of 0.6 points compared to March 2025 and 6.2 points compared to the previous year.

The agency detailed that, in April 2025, the manufacturing industry confidence indicator was 48.5 points , which was 1.2 points lower than last March, and represented the second consecutive month with declines.

The components that make up the aforementioned indicator fell, with the one related to whether it is the right time to invest standing out with a drop of 3.2 points .

Meanwhile, construction reported a positive result, achieving a monthly increase of 0.1 points in April; the component that showed the greatest growth was the one related to the company’s current economic situation, with an increase of 1.8 units .

In turn, the  trade sector  confidence indicator decreased 1.8 points compared to March 2025, reaching 47.4 points . The largest decline was related to the company’s future economic situation, with a decrease of 2.9 points .

The non-financial private services confidence indicator increased 0.2 points month-over-month to 49.7 points ; the right time to invest was the component with the largest increase, rising 1.9 points during the period.

According to CIAL Dun & Bradstreet , the Mexican economy is facing a complex situation, characterized by stagnant productive activity and a slowdown in employment.

The firm, which specializes in providing technological solutions and data,  considered that this stems from local factors such as the elimination of autonomous bodies and reforms to the Judiciary , as well as external factors such as the uncertainty surrounding U.S. tariffs , which have negatively impacted Mexico’s economic performance.

Under this scenario, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) revised its growth forecasts for Mexico, projecting a 0.3% contraction in 2025, in contrast to the 1.4% growth estimated last January.

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