The Transport and Logistics Confidence Index (ICTYL) returned to negative territory in the first quarter of 2026 (1Q26), reflecting the uncertainty in this industry. This follows a recovery in the fourth quarter of 2025 (4Q25), when the index had even surpassed 80 points .

Based on the ICTYL report for Q1 2026, the confidence index stood at 75.1 points, the second worst record since the third quarter of 2020, the year in which the COVID-19 pandemic was faced.

The ICTYL is the only confidence indicator in the transport and logistics industry, developed by T21 Business Intelligence  with the aim of monitoring the pace followed in this important economic sector, for which more than 140 managers and entrepreneurs linked to the provision of logistics and transport services, as well as users of these means, are consulted.

According to ICTYL, business confidence optimism fell below zero, registering at -5.70 points . In this category, all values ​​above zero indicate optimism .

When participants were asked how they assessed the pace of business in Q1 2026, 65.4% reported it as “unfavorable .” Meanwhile, for the second quarter of 2026 (Q2 2026), 61.5% of participants have a “favorable” outlook.

Revenue levels are another factor that highlights the industry’s pace. When ICTYL members were asked how revenue levels performed in Q1 2026 compared to Q1 2025, 46.2% of respondents indicated a decrease .

It is worth noting that in response to the same question, 19.2% reported that their billing activity grew between 5% and 10%. Considering all growth responses, it was found that 30.8% of participants increased their billing by 5% to more than 15%, according to ICTYL.

Among the risk factors that could pose a threat to the company’s growth, insecurity did not rank among the top concerns ; in fact, it was the fifth risk identified, with only 9.3% of the responses.

The main risk considered was the “Pace of the national economy”, which captured 19.4% of the responses . “Increased operating costs” contributed 17.6%, “Political uncertainty” 14.8%, and “Weak demand” 13%.

According to the Global Business Confidence Opinion Indicator (IGOEC) of the National Institute of Statistics and Geography (Inegi) , the confidence of Mexican businessmen fell 0.2 points in April 2026 in relation to last March and also decreased 0.4 units at an annual rate.

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El cargo Confidence in logistics and transport reverses trend: ICTYL apareció primero en T21.

The ICTYL is the first confidence indicator for the logistics and transport sector, developed by T21 Business Intelligence , which has been carried out since the first quarter of 2018 (1Q18) , and includes surveys of approximately 150 entrepreneurs, managers and users of the industry.

The aforementioned context caused the index to fall in the first three quarters of 2025; however, in the fourth quarter (4Q25) it registered a recovery, reaching 83.0 points from the previous 73.7 points.

Business optimism was also assessed and the negative indicator was reversed, reaching 14.77 points in Q4 2025 from -9.40 points in the third quarter of 2025 (Q3 2025) .

When business owners were asked about the performance of their businesses, 52.5% identified Q4 2025 as favorable , while 47.5% considered it negative.

In the estimate for the first quarter of 2026 (1Q26), 62.1% of respondents identified this period as positive, and there was also a contraction in the negative outlook, which stood at 37.9 percent.

When ICTYL participants were asked about their revenue performance in Q4 2025, 35% indicated a decrease, while 20% confirmed that it remained the same or did not grow. Among the companies that reported growth, 15% indicated an increase of 5% or less.

When reviewing the 2025 closing versus 2024 in revenue, 50% of the surveyed executives shared that there was no growth in this cycle, while 20% reported having an increase of between 1% and 5%, as identified in the ICTYL.

Among the threats observed to maintaining business growth, participants indicated that the pace of the economy is the main factor, followed by insecurity and political uncertainty , elements that can affect the behavior of companies.

According to the National Institute of Statistics and Geography (Inegi) , the Global Indicator of Business Confidence Opinion (IGOEC) registered, in December 2025, a monthly difference of 0.1 points, while in the annual comparison it stood at -3.5 units, to total 48.5 points in the measurement.

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El cargo Confidence in Transport and Logistics is Recovering: ICTYL apareció primero en T21.