For years, the border has been the natural barometer of the trade relationship between Mexico and the United States . When manufacturing grows, crossings increase; when the economy slows, the movement of goods also suffers. 

Today the indicator is pointing upwards again. Trade between the two countries reached record highs at the end of April 2026, driving increased activity in North America’s main logistics corridors. 

The question is whether this growth is translating into more opportunities for road transport or into greater pressure on an infrastructure that has been operating near its limits for years. 

The answer begins to be found at the border .

According to figures from the  U.S. Department of Commerce , trade through the port of Laredo reached historic levels at the close of April 2016. The comparative chart shows Mexican exports to the United States of $21.70 billion and imports from that country of $12.45 billion, for a total trade exchange of $34.15 billion, the highest level for an April since comparable records have been kept. 

Behind this performance lies a reality that is already beginning to be felt at the border: more cargo, higher operating volumes, and increasing pressure on the logistics corridors that connect Mexico with the United States.

Behind the record figures lies a transformation that has been building for years. Data from the Department of Commerce shows that trade handled by Laredo grew from $17.3 billion in April 2016 to $34.16 billion in April 2026, a 97.5% increase in a decade. 

The increase has been driven primarily by Mexican exports to the United States, which grew from $9.54 billion to $21.70 billion during the same period, a 127.5 percent increase. Meanwhile, Mexican imports from the United States rose from $7.76 billion to $12.45 billion, a 60.6 percent increase. 

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Mexico reaffirmed its position as the largest supplier of goods to the United States and became the top buyer of US products in April 2026. Meanwhile, Canada saw an increase in its trade with its northern neighbor, while China experienced a decline.

According to figures from the  US Census Bureau , trade between Mexico and the United States was $86,035.5 million in the fourth month of the year, a growth of 23.6% compared to April 2025.

Canada and China showed contrasting figures . While the North American country showed a 14.6% increase in April 2026 with $64,769.2 million, China, which ranked fourth, registered a 12.7% year-on-year contraction, with a total traded value of $29,184.3 million, according to an analysis by T21 Business Intelligence .

In the first four months of 2026 (January-April),  Mexico performed well in trade with the United States, totaling $317,336.1 million . Canada’s trade reached $240,895.3 million and China’s $117,435.6 million.

As for exports, Mexico sent goods to its northern neighbor worth $50.692 billion in April 2026 , an increase of 21.1% compared to the same month in 2025.

Canada exported goods to the United States worth $35.0281 billion, a 20.3% year-over-year increase. China shipped products to its northern neighbor worth $19.7892 billion, representing a 21.8% decrease compared to the same month in 2015.

Regarding imports, Mexico purchased US goods worth $35.3435 billion in April 2026, a 27.3% year-over-year increase. Canada’s imports totaled $29.7411 billion, an 8.5% increase compared to the same month last year. During the same period, China imported US goods worth $9.3951 billion, 16.1% more than in April 2025.

Trade between Mexico and the United States continued to perform well in April 2026, reflecting the positive trend in Mexican foreign trade, even in times of uncertainty.

These figures come amid repeated threats from US President Donald Trump not to continue with the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA).

“I don’t know if I’m going to renew it because, to be honest, the United States is doing much better,” Trump said on June 10, while declaring that “we don’t need anything that Canada has, we don’t need anything that Mexico has, but they need everything that we have, and they have to treat us better.”

However, trade figures between Mexico and the United States contradict Trump’s claims. Meanwhile, authorities from both countries are on the verge of reviewing the USMCA.

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The Mexican Business Association (AEM) stated that North American economic integration is a structural process that goes beyond trade uncertainty between Mexico and the United States,  and stressed that the best way to face this uncertainty is by working as a team.

Salomón Sacal, president of the organization’s board of directors, pointed out that ” it’s about teaming up with all sectors of both societies” and emphasized the importance of not limiting Mexico’s competitiveness solely to the export of goods and creating resilient and efficient supply chains .

“Mexico must rise to the occasion. Mexico cannot limit itself to simply selling goods. Mexico must sell supply chain capacity. And what do I mean by this? I mean resilient chains, traceable chains, and complementary, or as they say in English, compliance, because that is what our American partners are looking for,” he stated.

Likewise, in an interview with Grupo T21, he shared that, although there are logistical and regulatory challenges, Mexico enjoys a unique geographical position to consolidate itself as the most relevant trading partner and that it is a structural relationship that no one can escape .

“In the short term, it’s difficult to predict what will happen, because there is this current situation of political rhetoric, fluctuations, and tariffs, but in the medium and long term, the relationship and integration of the United States and Mexico, in the economic sense, is structural. That’s where we’re headed; there’s no way out. Neither Mexico nor the United States can escape it,” he stated.

For his part, Alejandro Castillo, president of the Mexican Association of Entrepreneurs (AEM) in Mexico City, emphasized that the city acts as the main hub for this relationship, attracting a substantial portion of foreign direct investment from the United States . He also highlighted the importance of the capital as a gateway for international corporations seeking to leverage the local infrastructure and talent pool.

Regarding the challenges of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), executives expressed cautious optimism about the possible annual reviews and insisted that the trade relationship with the United States should be leveraged.

Furthermore, they reiterated that their fundamental work is to shorten the learning curve for entrepreneurs who wish to expand into the United States, offering a support network that understands the cultural and tax differences. Roberto Castolo, the association’s liaison, shared that success in the U.S. market requires a change in mindset, thinking far beyond politics .

“What  would benefit us more than an industrialized United States? Well, we are a supply chain , we are part of it , this is the moment, we have to visualize it, we have to do it. And I sometimes tell many of my clients, ‘ If you were already in Mexico , you would already be selling,’ because you still need to set up, get established, do the work , start producing , and the United States continues to demand our products . In other words, we are in the best possible moment. If we remove this political specter , we will return to a much more competitive position,” he stated. 

Finally, the Mexican Business Association (AEM) urged local business leaders to step outside their comfort zones and view the U.S. market as the greatest opportunity for global growth . It emphasized that while Asian investors are coming to Mexico to take advantage of its proximity to the border and do business with the United States, many Mexican entrepreneurs have yet to make that move. Therefore, the AEM’s role is to open communication channels and provide support to those seeking to cross the border with competitive and sustainable projects.

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Modernizing processes to sustain the efficiency of trade between Mexico and the United States and implementing new technologies were some of the topics addressed in the panel “Free Flow of Goods: Simplifying Customs, Inspection and Compliance Procedures in Mexico ,” within the framework of Automotive Logistics & Supply Chain.

The panel included Giovani Bravo Vanegas, Head of Trade and Customs Compliance at General Motors of Mexico ; Jeber Nava Martínez, Head of LATAM Customs at AUMOVIO ; and Agustín Sustaita, Commercial Director of D-Troy Logistics .

The panelists agreed on the economic growth and increased revenues derived from bilateral trade, with Mexico being the United States’ main trading partner. However, they pointed out that infrastructure is lagging behind the growing volume of trade, which limits efficiency at border crossings .

They also explained that inspections have become more numerous and complex, encompassing security and immigration aspects ; in addition, the diversity of origins of goods entering Mexico adds an extra level of difficulty to the review and compliance processes.

They warned that the current context, marked by stricter controls and unusual activity, further complicates border crossings. Experts agreed on the need to strengthen communication between logistics, legal, and control teams to address volatility and uncertainty .

They also indicated that technology is a key element in transforming the supply chain and highlighted significant investments in sensors, cameras, and non-intrusive inspection systems, with the aim of accelerating the flow of goods and reducing waiting times. 

Furthermore, they explained that integrating robust systems across organizations is essential for streamlining processes. Automation and the use of Artificial Intelligence (AI) will enable faster responses to regulatory requirements and the handling of increasing transaction volume.

Finally, they suggested creating specialized teams for distribution and risk management, as well as having specialists in customs regulations. Participants noted that collaboration among companies, agents, and authorities is essential for building more resilient supply chains .

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The World Trade Organization (WTO) has launched a new interactive tool, presenting monthly bilateral trade statistics for more than 120 economies and over 200 of their trading partners across 72 product categories .

The tool is updated weekly and is based on statistics from the Trade Data Monitor (TDM) , which collects trade data from government agencies and bureaus around the world.

This consultation tool is available on the WTO’s tariff and trade data portal , according to information published by the multilateral organization.

The WTO’s monthly merchandise trade statistics include three interactive dashboards , helping users explore and analyze trade trends.

In this sense, it provides short-term information . This section offers total trade values ​​and growth rates by product for a selected economy, providing a reference to recent performance and trends.

The bilateral trade panel provides trade values, offering information on key relationships and dynamics at the product level.

The All Partners section provides trade values, growth rates, and partner shares for a selected economy, highlighting changes in trade patterns.

The dashboards cover statistics from 2018 to the latest available month for each economy, and aggregate trade flows in monthly, quarterly, and year-to-date views.

“This allows for a detailed and comparative analysis of trade performance over time. The tool helps policymakers, researchers, and businesses understand the dynamics of international trade,” the WTO explained.

According to a survey conducted by T21 using the tool, Mexico exported the equivalent of $10,595.64 million in vehicle sales during July 2025, 9% less than in the same month in 2024.

In the second quarter of the year (2Q25), vehicle shipments abroad totaled $32,404.14 million, representing a 0.2% increase compared to the same period last year.

The WTO tool indicated that from January to July 2025, Mexico exported $72,943.82 million worth of vehicles, a 1.8% drop compared to the same period in 2024.

According to the tool, Mexico exported vehicles to the United States for the equivalent of $9.237 billion in the seventh quarter of 2025. Meanwhile, in the second quarter of 2025, the country sent $28.549 billion worth of cars to the United States, with the total totaling $65.264 billion.

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It’s a fact! The imposition of 25% tariffs on Mexican imports by the administration of Donald Trump, president of the United States, shook the transportation and logistics sector on the northern border of Mexico on Tuesday, generating uncertainty at crossings and affecting the operations of transporters and customs agents. 

Carlos Fernández, president of the Association of Cargo Transporters of Nuevo Laredo (ATC) and member of the National Executive Council of the National Chamber of Cargo Transportation (Canacar) , described the situation as a severe blow to the region. 

“The impact here is brutal because all the cargo arriving via Highway 85 to Nuevo Laredo is international cargo. The amount unloaded in Nuevo Laredo is minimal,” explained Fernández. 

Manu el Díaz, president of Supply Chain de México and foreign trade advisor, said that many companies have chosen to stop their shipments until there is greater clarity . However, he explained that, although those with essential merchandise have already begun to pay tariffs, accepting the cost as part of their strategy to maintain the flow of trade, this measure could trigger extra costs for storage. 

“Companies are waiting to see what happens. Some have stopped shipments, but others have decided to pay the tariff because maintaining detained inventories ends up being more expensive,” he explained. 

Fernandez warned that the true scope of the measure will depend on the duration of the tariffs and how the market reacts. 

For his part, Díaz pointed out that these tariffs could lead to structural changes in bilateral trade ; among the possible scenarios, he mentions the transformation of the T-MEC into an agreement exclusively between Mexico and the United States, leaving out Canada. 

“In 10 days we will see how things evolve, but the most likely scenario is that selective tariffs will be imposed and that the USMCA will, in practice, become a bilateral agreement,” he said. 

Díaz said that the imposition of tariffs will have an inflationary impact on finished products, estimated at between 7% and 8% . This is due to additional costs in marketing, logistics, brands and patents, and although the increase does not reach the total 25% of the tariff, it does represent a significant blow to companies and consumers. 

“The problem is not only the tariff, but how it will be reflected in the final consumer. We will not see a 25% impact on prices, but at least 7% or 8% due to the cost structure of marketing and logistics,” the specialist explained. 

Solutions?

The Mexican government has decided to respond with moderation, a stance that has drawn criticism but could prevent a more serious trade escalation, said Manuel Diaz. 

Some voices suggest imposing mirror tariffs in retaliation, but Díaz warns that this would only make essential products that Mexico needs to import more expensive. 

“I do not agree with mirror tariffs. They only make products more expensive that we need to buy anyway, and the poorest people would end up paying that cost. We do not have the muscle for a one-on-one war,” he stressed. 

For its part, the logistics and transport sector, when tariffs were still a “threat” from Trump, and had not been approved, was already beginning to take preventive measures. 

Cross-border solutions provider Averitt highlighted the importance of strengthening supply chains through strategic warehousing , offering inventory relocation as an alternative to mitigate the impact of tariffs.  

Faced with this situation, some companies have begun to explore storage options at strategic points within the United States to ensure the continuity of their operations and avoid additional costs at border crossings. 

From the logistics side, Eduardo Chaim, commercial director of VAX Solutions , underlined the volatility of cross-border trade. 

“Uncertainty and tension continue to affect the sector. It is essential to act quickly and anticipate changes, analyzing how to diversify operations and adapt to the new scenario,” said Chaim. 

According to their analysis, cargo movements have shown significant fluctuations in recent weeks. 

“My clients are ordering the same number of services, but they order them in one week instead of distributing them throughout the month. So the warehouses have increased inventory, the flow of requirements is much denser in a single period and then it is very free,” he explained. 

Carlos Fernández also indicated that the measure is already affecting investment projects , however, he stressed that it is still too early to evaluate whether the daily flow of trade will undergo a drastic change. 

Regarding the Mexican government’s reaction, Fernández considered that President Claudia Sheinbaum’s stance is more oriented towards a political message than towards concrete measures for the sector. He said that the priority should be the generation of a strategic plan with the key actors. 

Industry stance 

For his part, Israel Delgado, president of the northwest region of Canacar, commented through his social networks that transport companies must adapt and evolve to any situation . 

The Mexican Chamber of the Construction Industry (CMIC)  said that the application of US tariffs creates uncertainty and could negatively impact various economic sectors in the country.   

“Mexico and the United States have built a close and complementary trade relationship, supported by the USMCA. Any measure that alters this balance must be reviewed based on the mechanisms for dialogue and dispute resolution contemplated in the treaty itself,” he said.

He said that the stability and competitiveness of both countries depend on cooperation and the strengthening of their value chains , and that tariffs not only affect Mexico and Canada, but also American companies integrated into the region’s value chains and, above all, American consumers.   

They therefore trust in the Mexican Government’s ability to promote a solution that will mitigate the effects of this decision , protecting economic development, productive investment and employment in the country. 

“We are joining forces with the productive sector and our authorities, reiterating our willingness to collaborate in building strategies that strengthen Mexico’s competitiveness in international trade,” he said. 

In this regard, he said that they will continue to monitor the evolution of the issue, ” convinced that dialogue and cooperation will continue to be the pillars of the relationship between both nations .” 

For now, the sector remains on tenterhooks, awaiting trade and political adjustments that will define the true scope of the new tariff scenario. “ We are frozen with the news and little by little we will see the effect of the measure ,” concluded Fernández. 

By Karina Quintero / Jennifer Galindo / Evangelina del Toro

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