In April 2026, Mexico’s annual general inflation rate stood at 4.45% , breaking a streak of three consecutive months of increases, the National Institute of Statistics and Geography (Inegi) reported on Thursday .

This result stemmed from a decrease in the non-core price index (goods and services whose prices are subject to fluctuations) which fell 0.18% on a monthly basis.

Domestically, energy prices and government-regulated tariffs fell 1.03%, primarily due to adjustments in electricity rates in 18 cities across the country, as part of the summer season pricing scheme. Meanwhile, fruit and vegetable prices rose 3.47% month-on-month.

Meanwhile, the  core price index —which does not take into account the most volatile goods and services— increased 0.31% month-on-month, with the cost of goods and services rising 0.31 percent.

Although inflation slowed down last April compared to the 4.59% annual rate of March 2026, the price of some basic goods registered increases.

During the period, the poblano pepper increased its cost by 41.42% monthly, the serrano pepper showed an increase of 36.27%, the tomato by 19.25%, potatoes and other tubers by 12.23%, high octane gasoline by 6.16% and urban bus fares by 3.44% on a monthly basis.

Conversely, the products with the greatest price decrease during the cycle were  green tomato with 34.80%, zucchini with 18.57%, lemon with 14.58%, electricity with 14%, air transport with 7.52% and egg with 3.48% monthly.

Among the states with the largest monthly increases in the National Consumer Price Index (INPC) were Durango, Jalisco, and Zacatecas. Meanwhile, Tabasco, Yucatán, and Campeche were among the states with variations below the national average.

The result for April 2026 represents the first month, so far this year, that inflation shows a drop, since last January it stood at 3.79%, in February it stood at 4.02% and in March at 4.59% at an annual rate.

Industry analysts, such as Grupo Financiero BASE , have estimated that inflation will close 2026 at 4.2%, which would mean an increase in the costs of various products.

According to Inegi, the INPC is a measure of the average change in the prices of the products that make up a basket of goods and services representative of the consumption of households in the country over time.

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El cargo Inflation gives Mexicans a break in April; breaks three-month streak of increases apareció primero en T21.

Inflation in Mexico accelerated again in March 2026, driven by the rise in agricultural products and services such as air transport , after the increase shown last February, when it stood at 4.02% at an annual rate, the National Institute of Statistics and Geography (Inegi) announced .

According to the agency, in the third month of the year, the National Consumer Price Index (INPC), which measures the variation in prices of a basket of goods and services, registered an increase of 0.86% compared to the previous month. With this result, the overall annual inflation rate was 4.59% .

“The increase in some agricultural products and the effects of the conflict in the Middle East on energy led to inflation reaching its highest level since October 2024,” the  Financial Group Ve por Más (BX+) indicated  in an analysis.

According to Inegi, the  core price index  – which does not take into account the most volatile goods and services – increased 0.38% monthly , with a rise in the prices of goods of 0.29% and an increase of 0.48% in the prices of services.

“The underlying inflation rate declined slightly, but has remained above 4% for 11 consecutive months despite the fragility of economic activity. Goods prices fell, likely as the effect of January’s fiscal adjustments diminishes and given the currency appreciation of previous months. Conversely, services prices rebounded and are showing variations greater than their historical average despite a fragile economic context,” BX+ explained.

The  non-core price index  —which includes goods and services whose prices are subject to fluctuations— rose 2.46% month-on-month . Within this index, fruit and vegetable prices increased 10.75%, and energy and regulated tariffs rose 0.85% month-on-month, reflecting price pressures on various frequently consumed products and services in Mexico.

The increase in inflation in March is mainly explained by a rebound in the price of agricultural products such as cucumber with a rise of 42.71%, tomato  with 42.01%, air  transport with an increase of 26.28%,  lemon with 18.26%,  green tomato  with 16.46%, potato and other tubers with 14.92% and chicken with 2.82% monthly.

Conversely, the products with the greatest decrease in their cost during the cycle were nopales with a drop of 8.86%, papaya with 4.40%, internet, telephone and pay television packages with 3.59%, eggs with 2.69%, beans with 1.34% and pork with a decrease in its price of 1.28% on a monthly basis.

Among the states with the largest monthly increases in the National Consumer Price Index (INPC) were Guerrero, Puebla, and Tlaxcala . Meanwhile, Chihuahua, Baja California Sur, and Yucatán were among the states with variations below the national average.

According to Ve por Más’s analysis, the annual variation of the INPC “accelerated for the third consecutive month, adding two readings above 4% (upper limit of the Bank of Mexico ‘s tolerance range ) and reached highs since October 2024″ .

“The pressure came from the non-core index, given the marked reversal in agricultural products and –as a result of the conflict in Iran– the greater dynamism in energy,” he explained.

The financial institution considered that “the inflationary outlook has deteriorated ,” and therefore raised its year-end inflation forecast from 3.9% to 4.1%.

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El cargo Inflation spirals out of control in March; rising prices of agricultural products take their toll apareció primero en T21.

Inflation in Mexico continues unabated. In the first half of March 2026, the National Consumer Price Index (INPC) , which measures the average change in prices of products that make up a basket of goods and services, stood at 4.63% year-on-year , representing an increase of 0.62% compared to the previous two weeks, the National Institute of Statistics and Geography (Inegi) announced on Tuesday  .

“The inflationary outlook has recently deteriorated due to the escalation of geopolitical conflicts and the resulting increase in international energy prices, coupled with a reluctance to lower core inflation,” the Financial Group Ve por Más (BX+) noted in an analysis.

According to INEGI, the  core inflation index —which excludes goods and services with the most volatile prices—rose 0.22% biweekly. Within this index, goods prices increased 0.20% and services prices 0.25% .

“The underlying index remains stubbornly high, despite moderating slightly. It has now been above 4% for 10 consecutive months,” BX+ noted.

The  non-core price index —which includes goods and services whose prices are subject to fluctuations—rose 1.96% biweekly. Within this index, fruit and vegetable prices increased 8.34%, while energy and regulated tariff prices rose 0.48% biweekly .

Products that impacted the CPI

Tomatoes (32.17%), air transport (21.86%), zucchini (16.78%), lemons (13.11 %), tomatillos (10.79%), potatoes and other tubers (7.77%), chicken ( 3.18%), and electricity (2.17%) were the products that showed the greatest price increases during the reference period.

Conversely, the products with the greatest decrease in their cost during the cycle were nopales with 5.49%; internet, telephone and pay television packages with a decrease of 3.47%, other fruits with a decrease of 1.66%, eggs with 1.33% and pork with a decrease of 0.57% on a biweekly basis.

The states with variations above the national average were  the State of Mexico, Puebla, and Tlaxcala . Meanwhile, the states that reported the smallest increases in the first half of March were Baja California Sur, Chihuahua, and Campeche .

According to the Ve por Más Financial Group, the year-on-year variation reached a 10-fortnight high due to pressures in agricultural products and an increase in energy products.

“The year-on-year change accelerated for the fifth consecutive reading, the highest in 10 observations. In addition, it had two fortnights above 4%,” he emphasized.

Inflation during the period remains above the target set by the Bank of Mexico (Banxico) , which is 3% by the end of 2026.

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El cargo Basic food basket prices skyrocket! Inflation maintains its upward trend in the first half of March apareció primero en T21.

In Latin America, both  Mexico and Brazil would be the countries most affected by a potential total closure of the Strait of Hormuz , although the partial closure has already led to price increases and shortages of products—such as helium and methanol—due to disruptions in global maritime and air transport. For some commodities , the impact would be felt not only in supply chains but also in basic food items.

Arcadio Martínez, VP Global Tender Management at DSV Air & Sea, specified that, in maritime transport, the most exposed would be Mexico, as well as Brazil due to its direct service from Asian ports and its connection to the Persian Gulf .

“The other countries wouldn’t be as exposed, but the impact on air travel would be felt by almost everyone. Gulf airlines operate many services worldwide. Emirates, for example, has a service via Miami to Bogotá or Brazil, or to other countries. Initially, they offered passenger transport, which allowed for cheaper air freight, and then cargo services, which have disappeared because they’ve repositioned themselves in other traffic. The delay in maritime transport will lead to an increase in air freight, and Latin America will be affected by the reduced available capacity,” he explained in the webinar “The Crisis in the Middle East: What Does It Mean for Your Supply Chain?”

Santiago Zapata, Business Development Specialist Sales Colombia at DSV, explained that there has been an 8% impact on global air capacity , as well as a 40% increase in fuel prices.

He emphasized that Emirates and Qatar Airways are among the most affected airlines, which has harmed their services to Latin America and forced them to relocate fleets.

“The shutdown affects 13% of global capacity, and we have three factors that, combined, will not allow for fare stability and will continue the trend of maintaining inflationary pressure and the loss of capacity globally . In addition, some airlines have implemented war surcharges , and insurance premiums have increased,” he noted.

According to the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) ,  risk premiums for ships operating in the area have increased by up to 300%, quadrupling insurance costs per voyage in some cases, adding to the price of the shipment.

He added that there is currently more than 20% capacity between Asia and Europe, while in South Asia it exceeds 13%, “which affects volumes across the entire region.”

Arcadio Martinez explained that, since the crisis in the Strait of Hormuz began on February 28, stemming from Iran’s offensive within the framework of the conflict it faces with the United States-Israeli axis, fuel prices for shipping companies have skyrocketed, to the point of doubling, so companies have begun to implement emergency fuel surcharges (EFS), in addition to the war surcharge .

“Shipping companies have fuel costs that account for 25% of their expenses, and if it’s almost 50%, they’ll lose a lot of money, which is why they’re implementing this surcharge. If a container is moved from Asia to Latin America, we’ll be affected; that explains the price increase in Los Angeles and Long Beach,” he explained.

In that regard, Santiago Zapata said that  shipping companies will begin to redistribute their fleets on the most profitable routes to Europe or Asia , which could affect Latin America, since that region can afford a larger fleet, just like North America.

“This will cause many services that do not originate directly from the Middle East region to be affected, such as those that come through the Caribbean,” he stressed.

As of March 16, 2026, 140 active container ships with a combined capacity of 458,000 TEUs (twenty-foot equivalent units) were stranded in the Persian Gulf, representing 1.9% of the global fleet. This resulted in the disruption of 650,000 TEUs of weekly traffic.

“A prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz would force a reconfiguration of these services. Furthermore, we have options: leave the cargo at transshipment ports and wait for the following weeks and accept the delay, repurchase the cargo elsewhere and send it via a route that is safer, and return the cargo to its origin,” he added.

He mentioned that MSC , Maersk , and CMA CGM are the main shipping companies affected by the conflict in the Middle East.

Under this scenario, both specialists pointed out that it is necessary to anticipate urgent shipments and have a clear vision of the forecast ; in addition, impacts on transit times to Latin America, lack of services, some shipping companies may even avoid certain ports, or China may increase the production of new containers, among other things.

Martínez and Zapata indicated that 20 million barrels and between 120 and 140 ships pass through the Strait of Hormuz daily , while after the blockade it dropped to between four and five, only oil tankers, from Iran.

Similarly, Arcadio Martínez explained that the impact is not only on crude oil, but also on products such as urea, helium, sulfur, methanol, aluminum, polyethylene, and others .

“This region is a major producer of raw materials, and we are currently in the spring planting season in the Northern Hemisphere, which will lead to an increase in fertilizer prices, as well as in the price of food and helium, which is used in electrocardiogram machines. Given the revolution we are experiencing in artificial intelligence and data centers, this will cause a standstill. This will generate a cascading effect if it is not resolved soon, and the longer supply chains remain closed, the longer it will take to reopen them,” he explained.

Martínez predicted that if crude oil production were to stop, for example, in Iraq, it would take up to a month and a half to reach the same levels as before the crisis in the Strait of Hormuz.

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