Amid global uncertainty, geopolitical tensions, and internal pressures, analyst Mauricio Candiani warned that 2026 will be a year of “crosswinds” for companies in Mexico, where the key will not be waiting for certainty, but making strategic decisions with pragmatism.

During his presentation at the ANERPV Forum , Candiani used a metaphor comparing the current economy to a turbulent flight. While some react nervously to any jolt, more experienced organizations understand that these episodes are inevitable and operate with clear protocols.

“This is how things are this year; there are slight movements and stronger ones that directly impact the dynamics of businesses, regardless of the sector,” he explained.

One of the main challenges, he pointed out, is the low economic growth . Mexico is advancing at a  “baby step” pace, insufficient in the face of key variables such as population growth or the level of public debt.

According to Candiani, the country should grow above both indicators to guarantee long-term stability, something that is not currently happening. This is compounded by a still-high fiscal deficit and a growing debt, which, while not critical, does show a worrying trend.

“The problem is not the size of the debt, it is the trajectory,” he warned.

On the monetary front, he highlighted that the reduction in interest rates represents an opportunity for investment, although he stressed that its impact goes beyond credit: it also directly affects the viability of new projects.

Regarding inflation , the specialist pointed out that it does not represent a serious macroeconomic risk at the moment, as it remains within manageable ranges for the economy.

One of the most critical points of his analysis was the global energy environment, which he described as a “shock” driven more by expectations than by physical scarcity.

In this context, he warned about Mexico’s high dependence on natural gas imported from the United States, which could become a structural risk in the event of supply disruptions.

However, it also identified opportunities, particularly in the development of unconventional gas in the north of the country, driven by changes in energy policy.

“The restriction is not the price, it is the capacity,” he emphasized.

Nearshoring and unequal opportunities

Candiani acknowledged that regionalization and trade with the United States remain key drivers for Mexico, especially within the context of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) . However, he cautioned that the benefits are not distributed evenly.

While some regions and industries are growing rapidly due to the relocation of production chains, others are facing lags or even contractions.

“The world is in constant arbitrage of inputs, and Mexico is well positioned to take advantage of it,” he noted.

Another area of ​​concern is the judicial system . Candiani warned about a transition process that could generate greater uncertainty in dispute resolution, forcing companies to rethink their legal and compliance strategies.

He even warned about the strengthening of regulatory powers that allow accounts to be frozen based on presumptions, which increases operational risks .

Beyond the diagnosis, Candiani’s central message was that companies must adjust their decision-making to a reality where government support is limited.

“We have to ask the government as if it could do everything, but in the boardrooms we have to make decisions as if it weren’t doing anything,” he said.

In this regard, he called for maintaining financial discipline, avoiding overleverage, and strengthening the capacity to adapt to changing scenarios.

Despite the challenges, the specialist concluded with a moderately optimistic outlook. He asserted that Mexico maintains significant competitive advantages , especially in sectors related to exports, logistics, and technology.

“The country is in the right postal code ,” he said, noting that opportunities exist, but depend on companies’ ability to read the environment, adjust their strategies, and execute with discipline.

Comment and follow us on LinkedIn: @Jennifer Galindo / @GrupoT21

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In an environment of uncertainty, insecurity and cost overruns, industry leaders agreed that logistics in Mexico is facing one of its most complex, but also decisive, moments for its transformation.

During the dialogue panel “Mexican Logistics in 2026: Between Resilience and Competitiveness” , at the Forum of the National Association of Vehicle Tracking and Protection Companies (ANERPV) , Osiel Cruz Pacheco,  CEO of Grupo T21 , acknowledged the role of logistics entrepreneurs, whom he described as “heroes” who keep commerce operating in an adverse environment.

However, he was also emphatic that Mexico still has not managed to reduce its logistics costs to levels that are competitive with more advanced economies.

Insufficient infrastructure, outdated toll systems, downtime on roads and in ports, as well as regulatory burdens, are part of a “salad of factors” that increase the cost of logistics operations and directly affect the end consumer.

From the perspective of importers and exporters, Javier Lagunes , president of the National Association of Importers and Exporters of the Mexican Republic (ANIERM) , stated that the country is going through an evolutionary process forced by global competition.

Among the main challenges, he highlighted the need to clearly define the roles within the logistics chain, the lack of concrete actions to solve structural problems, and the urgency of generating effective public policies.

Even so, he stressed that Mexico has a privileged position to become a key logistics hub , provided it manages to correct its weaknesses.

For his part, Fernando Con y Ledesma , president of the Mexican Association of Shipping Agents (Amanac) , emphasized that one of the main obstacles is the lack of alignment among the actors in the logistics chain.

“The challenge is to put aside individual interests in order to build collective efficiency,” he said.

Furthermore, he proposed promoting a national initiative under the concept of “Safe Mexico” , with the aim of improving international perception and generating more reliable conditions for trade.

Rising costs and operational uncertainty

From the Mexican Association of Freight Forwarders (Amacarga) , its president, Eva Muñoz, offered one of the most critical diagnoses: insecurity has completely transformed the logistics operation .

Today, he explained, companies face increased theft and violence, higher insurance premiums, a need for security and constant monitoring, and an inability to maintain stable rates.

This has eliminated practices such as just-in-time , forcing a redesign of routes, schedules, and operational strategies, which directly impacts costs and efficiency.

In this context, Luis Villatoro , president of ANERPV, highlighted the role of technology as a central element in mitigating risks.

He noted that the use of artificial intelligence , telemetry, and tracking systems has improved vehicle recovery and strengthened traceability. He also emphasized the importance of collaboration with authorities, which has led to the development of analytical frameworks, incident reports, and critical points.

Intermodal: progress, but with structural challenges

Luis Hernández, president of the Mexican Association of Intermodal Transport (AMTI) , presented a more optimistic outlook for intermodal transport, with progress in the use of rail and greater integration with ports and borders.

However, he warned that structural problems persist , such as complex customs processes, a lack of standardization between ports and regions, and increased regulatory costs.

Added to this is the need to redefine Mexico’s role in an environment of regionalized trade, where economic blocs are becoming more relevant.

Participants agreed that the transformation of the sector involves the use of data for decision-making; training and certification of talent ; adoption of new technologies; and greater collaboration between associations and authorities.

In particular, the importance of professionalizing all levels of the logistics chain and generating reliable information to design more effective strategies was highlighted.

In conclusion, the consensus was clear that without security and legal certainty, logistics competitiveness is limited; since insecurity hinders investment, damages the country’s international image, increases operating costs, and limits the sector’s growth.

Despite this, the final tone was optimistic. The industry acknowledged the challenges, but also its capacity for adaptation.

Comment and follow us on LinkedIn: @Jennifer Galindo / @GrupoT21

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Consolidating Mexico as a logistics and foreign trade platform requires more than just growth in flows and volumes: it demands sufficient infrastructure, streamlined processes, and close coordination between the public and private sectors. This was the central consensus of the panel “Perspectives on the Development and Growth of Foreign Trade, Consolidation of Logistics at the National and International Levels ,” held at the ANERPV Forum , where federal officials and business representatives met.

In the context of the 23rd anniversary of the National Association of Vehicle Tracking and Protection Companies (ANERPV) , the panel members concluded that logistics cannot be understood only as an operational function, but as a strategic enabler of economic development .

This involves challenges and obstacles in the areas of security, digitalization, talent, multimodal infrastructure, and regulations that facilitate the transit of goods, which have been configured as the pillars on which the country’s logistical competitiveness must be built , both for the domestic market and for its integration into global value chains.

Gerardo Tajonar, vice president of the National Chamber of Commerce, Services and Tourism of Mexico City (Canaco CDMX) , emphasized that international trade operates in a high-risk environment facing maritime route closures and geopolitical conflicts, which has motivated the reconfiguration of supply chains.

As a result of the above, coordination between the government and private sector participants is required to address these disruptions that are due to exogenous factors , and the members of the supply chain must manage them.

José Carlos Gilibert, Vice President of Security for the National Chamber of Freight Transportation (Canacar) , stressed that insecurity on the highways continues to be a profound problem , which translates into the killing of drivers.

Regarding infrastructure, Gilibert Peña warned about the lack of infrastructure, which is manifested in the saturation of toll booths due to a lack of technology that would make them more efficient, but also because the options for highways and roads have not kept pace with the operating conditions of road transport .

“Due to insecurity, transporters must stop traveling at certain times, which means we have to travel during daylight hours, coinciding with private vehicles,” added José Gilibert, who also asserted that technological issues such as tracking, telemetry and artificial intelligence are no longer optional, but structural.

Paulino Herrera Manzano, executive director of Supervision at the General Directorate of Federal Motor Transport (DGAF) , stated that progress has been made in self-regulation projects that will allow companies to register operators, units, and cargo for real-time monitoring .

These processes require intensive use of digitization and administrative simplification to reduce times in permits, licenses and authorizations , despite the fact that in previous months the lack of plates for motor transport was denounced, and a circular was even issued to be able to deliver them in printed form, while the metal plates arrived.

From the perspective of Ignacio Aguado, Director General of Innovation, Services and Foreign Trade at the Ministry of Economy , he described that there is a reality where some sectors are export-intensive, while domestic consumption has a high import rate.

Given this situation, Aguado emphasized the importance of logistics, a cross-cutting sector that connects industry, commerce, and infrastructure. To strengthen it, actions have been taken to bolster human capital through certifications and competency standards for the logistics sector, in response to an estimated 25%–30% labor shortage in the industry, with the shortage of truck drivers exceeding 90,000 positions.

Comment and follow us on LinkedIn:  @Didier Ramírez Torres  /  @GrupoT21

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