The analysis of passenger and cargo transportation during the six-year term of President Andrés Manuel López Obrador revealed results that contrast with some of the initial promises of his administration. The figures presented in the Sixth Government Report show a decrease in six of the seven main categories , including passenger and cargo rail transportation, as well as the growth of federal motor transport.

In this sense, the evolution of cargo transported by air and land during the López Obrador administration reflects challenges and recoveries . In the report, the volume of cargo by these modes of transport experienced constant growth until 2018, but from 2019 it began to register declines , notably in 2020, with an annual decrease of -3.7%, largely affected by the COVID-19 pandemic.

Although a recovery was observed in the following years, with annual growth of 3.2% in 2021 and 3.3% in 2022, the increase moderated to 2.3% in 2023. This trend indicates that, although there was a post-covid recovery, freight transport still faces challenges to achieve sustained growth .

This behavior highlights the vulnerability of the cargo transportation sector to global crises and the importance of implementing more resilient policies that strengthen the country’s capacity to face future adversities, something that, according to the data, was left unfinished during the six-year term that is about to end.

The report shows detailed data on air transport cargo, the behaviour of which is irregular compared to the previous six-year period.

Between 2013 and 2018 , relatively stable growth was observed, with positive annual variations ranging from 1.1% to 12.8%, reaching important peaks such as 12.8% in 2018. This positive trend was interrupted in 2019 , when a drop of -5.5% was recorded , followed by an even steeper drop of -11.5% in 2020, coinciding with the impact of the pandemic.

Despite a 28.2% rebound in 2021 , this recovery was not sustained , as in 2022 the figure fell again to -1.2%. For 2024, the graph shows a modest growth of 8.5%, which, although positive, is still below the levels reached in the previous six-year period.

In addition, freight in land rail transport shows a volatile performance, with several points of concern when compared to the previous six-year period. Between 2012 and 2018 , although there were ups and downs, the general trend was one of moderate growth, reaching peaks such as 4.5% in 2014 and 4% in 2017. However, from 2019, the situation changed dramatically.

The year 2019 marked the beginning of a series of significant declines , starting with a decline of -2.2%, which worsened to -3.8% in 2020, coinciding with the impact of the pandemic and disruptions in the global supply chain.

Although 2021 saw a recovery with growth of 7.9% , this rebound was not sustained as in 2022 the figure fell back to -1.1 percent. For 2024, a modest growth of 4 percent is projected.

Finally, the federal auto transport load during AMLO’s six-year term shows significant fluctuations. After a significant drop in 2020, there was a recovery in 2021, but growth stabilized at 2.3% in 2023 and 2024, without reaching the consistency of previous years. However, this reflects the need for more stable policies to ensure sustained growth in the sector.

One of the most visible sectors during this six-year period is passenger air transport , since the average annual growth of 10.85% during 2019-2024 exceeds the 9.4% recorded in the previous six-year period. This growth is largely due to the post-pandemic recovery.

In the case of passenger rail transport , growth was low, with an annual average of only 1.57% compared to 4.8% in the previous six-year period. This shows that large railway projects, such as the Mayan Train and the Trans-Isthmus Train , were and are marked by delays and questionable execution for different sectors of the industry.

The growth in the number of passengers served in land transport by federal motor transport during AMLO’s six-year term shows that after a significant drop of -3.5% in 2020, impacted by the pandemic, the sector experienced a recovery with an increase of 4.4% in 2021 . However, starting in 2022, growth began to slow down, stabilizing at 2.1% by 2024 . These data reflect the recovery of the sector after the crisis, but also the difficulty of maintaining constant growth in a challenging environment.

López Obrador’s six-year term has been marked by an ambitious commitment to large infrastructure projects, such as the Maya Train and the AIFA . However, these projects are plagued by criticism from their planning phases to their execution, and so far, they have not met expectations in terms of significantly improving transportation in Mexico.

(Main photo source: AMLO Instagram)

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