During the third quarter of 2025 (3Q25), the federal entities with the greatest growth in their economic activity were Tlaxcala, Zacatecas and San Luis Potosí , with positive quarterly variations of 2.8%, 2.7% and 1.7%, respectively, according to information published on Thursday by the  National Institute of Statistics and Geography (Inegi) .

According to the results of the Quarterly Indicator of State Economic Activity (ITAEE) , which offers an overview of the economic evolution of the federal entities, Veracruz with 1.4%, Colima and Yucatán, each with 1.3%, also showed an optimal performance in their economic activity in the period.

The states that showed the largest contractions in Q3 2025 were Campeche, with a 3.8 percent decrease in economic activity. This was followed by Coahuila with a 2.4 percent decrease and Durango with a 2 percent quarterly drop.

Meanwhile, in their annual measurement , Baja California Sur with 4.3%, Colima with 3.8% and San Luis Potosí with 3.5%, registered advances in their economic activity during Q3 2025.

Campeche registered a decline of 11.7%, Quintana Roo of 7.3% and Oaxaca of 5.4%, making them the states with the greatest decrease in their economic activity on an annual basis.

By sector, Inegi indicated that in primary activities – those that include agriculture, fishing and livestock – Colima with 48.2%, Baja California Sur with 32.9% and Tlaxcala with 31%, stood out with growth in economic activity in 3Q25 compared to the same cycle of 2024.

In the  industrial sector , the states that performed best on an annual basis were Michoacán with 13.5%, Baja California Sur with 12.5%, and Tamaulipas with 8.6% during the third quarter of last year.

Guerrero with an annual growth of 4.8%, Tlaxcala with 2.8%, and Chiapas with 2.7%, stood out in the services sector during the aforementioned period.

During the third quarter of 2025, the Mexican economy faced a moderation in its growth, stemming from persistent geopolitical uncertainty and a loss of dynamism in international trade.

However, under these circumstances, 17 Mexican federal entities showed an increase in their economic activity during Q3 2025, although for 2026, according to specialists, the country’s economy will continue with moderate projections, due to the uncertainty generated by the tariff policy of the United States, Mexico’s main trading partner.

In that regard, the  International Monetary Fund (IMF) estimated that the Mexican economy could grow by 1.5% this year due to global trade and geopolitical tensions, such as the trade war between the United States and China.

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According to the  Timely Estimate of Quarterly Gross Domestic Product (EOPIBT) , published this Thursday by the  National Institute of Statistics and Geography (Inegi) , the Mexican economy contracted in the third quarter of 2025 (3Q25), which is its first decline so far this year , marked by a decrease in industrial activities.

In Q3 2025,  Gross Domestic Product (GDP)  fell 0.3%  both quarterly and year-on-year , according to seasonally adjusted figures.

The agency indicated that in the period July-September 2025, the GDP of primary activities , which include agriculture, mining and fishing,  grew 3.2% quarterly .

Meanwhile, the  secondary sector , which includes manufacturing and construction, showed a  1.5% decrease   quarter-on-quarter during the same period. The  tertiary sector , which includes services such as commerce, transportation and communications, education, and health, saw a  0.1% increase  quarter-on-quarter.

“The Timely Estimate of Quarterly Gross Domestic Product offers, in the short term, a view on the evolution of the country’s economic activities,” Inegi explained regarding this indicator.

According to analysts, the uncertainty generated by the United States tariffs offers a low expectation of growth for the Mexican economy for the remainder of the year.

It is worth remembering that Mexico’s GDP grew 0.6% in the second quarter of 2025, driven mainly by the manufacturing and service industries, so if the INEGI estimate from this Thursday is confirmed, the country’s economy would be heading for a decline.

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