The United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) will be reviewed in 2026, but uncertainty about whether it will be just a review or whether some aspects will be renegotiated is increasingly leaning toward the possibility of a second review, especially as tensions between Mexico and the United States grow around issues such as the relationship with China.
Luis Miguel Jiménez, a partner in Foreign Trade at Von Wobeser , believes that it will be a fundamental renegotiation, where Mexico will have to put its concerns on the table and find solutions.
In this regard, he indicated that one point that the United States could use as a tool in the renegotiation is tariff pressure to prevent Mexico from importing Chinese products.
“When you start from the premise that you are going to impose tariffs on a trading partner that has a free trade agreement, that speaks of disdain. However, I do not believe that the agreement will end because it is not convenient for either party,” he said.
Jimenez explained that the US administration will seek to address primarily fentanyl trafficking and illegal migration , but areas such as the rules of origin of the automotive industry could also be the subject of renegotiation in 2026.
Although Von Wobeser’s partner assured that the treaty that was initiated during the previous administration of Donald Trump will not be terminated, one of the main issues will be the Mexico-China relationship and the investments that come from that country, especially in sectors that the northern neighbor considers priority, such as the automotive sector.
“Mexico must be very careful in identifying which Chinese products may generate conflicts with the United States, but also understand that others, such as steel, are essential for our supply chains,” said Luis Miguel Jiménez.
Along these lines, he indicated that the United States maintains an investment screening system through a Memorandum of Understanding , which has no legal basis in the T-MEC, but reflects specific concerns about Chinese investments in Mexico.
“The memorandum does not establish binding commitments, but it lays the foundations for identifying the origin of investments and monitoring strategic sectors,” Jiménez explained.
The specialist commented that Mexico must be very intelligent in order not to affect its relationship with the United States, its main trading partner, without neglecting the Asian country.
Luis Miguel Jiménez envisioned a period of great challenges for Mexico, with a renegotiation of the T-MEC that will include tariff pressures, tensions over Chinese investments and the need to balance the interests of its main trading partners.
“If Mexico adopts a transparent and strategic stance, we can reach a good destination in our trade relationship with the United States and China,” he said.
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