Supply chains , the rise of Artificial Intelligence (AI), and the renegotiation of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA ) will be key drivers for Mexico and its economy in 2026, academics agreed at the Economic and Political Panorama of Mexico 2026 event , organized by the School of Government and Public Transformation together with the EGADE Business School of Tecnológico de Monterrey
During his presentation entitled Mexico: Economic Perspectives, Challenges and Opportunities of the United States Trade Policy , Ernesto Stein, distinguished professor at the School of Government and Public Transformation, pointed out that Mexico is experiencing a “second wave” of relocation that could surpass the impact of the first thanks to the tariffs of the US government.
He explained that while Asian countries like Vietnam face tariffs of up to 20% in the United States, Mexico maintains a competitive advantage by exporting under the USMCA with zero tariffs on most of its products. This phenomenon also caused the use of the treaty’s rules in Mexican exports to jump from 50% to 85% in recent months .
“This can open up a huge opportunity for many more SMEs to get involved in these value chains,” he said.
In an interview with Grupo T21 , Stein also emphasized that the renegotiation of the treaty scheduled for this year will be crucial, although with contrasting scenarios . In the worst-case scenario, it would imply the United States’ withdrawal from the agreement through a gradual review process; in the best-case scenario, specific adjustments would be made that would maintain tariff benefits and guarantee the continuity of Mexican exports to the U.S. market.
“I am cautiously optimistic , as they say in English, that this is what will happen because I realize the benefits the treaty has, despite what Trump has said, not only for Mexican companies, but also for American ones. There is a North American production system; there isn’t an individual production system for Mexico, the United States, and Canada. They have spent 25 years adjusting these supply chains to make them more efficient, and for me, it is very important to preserve those advantages,” he stated.
During his presentation, the academic indicated that another key element in economic development is the rise of Artificial Intelligence (AI), which has driven a surge in investment in data centers and servers , a market where Mexico has gained ground. Its share of U.S. imports in this sector increased from 21.5% to 28.4%, solidifying the country’s position as a significant player in technological infrastructure.
Scrambled eggs , the value chains between Mexico and the United States
For his part, in an interview with Grupo T21 , Horacio Arredondo, national dean of the Business School of Tecnológico de Monterrey, emphasized that integration between Mexico and the United States will continue to be the big bet .
“The value chains between the United States and Mexico are like scrambled eggs ; it’s very difficult to separate one from the other. Therefore, I believe that there needs to be continued serious investment in making them even more complex and seeing how we create these corridors,” he stated.
Arredondo noted that simplifying procedures and strengthening infrastructure and road safety will be key to improving land transport, the main driver of bilateral logistics, and emphasized the need for deeper dialogue between regulators and the private sector .
“Beyond discussing whether a particular law is good or bad, we need to think about how we can create deeper spaces for conversation so that regulation can be simpler as we introduce more and more technology,” he said.
Finally, Arredondo called for strengthening public-private cooperation as an engine of regional competitiveness and pointed out that public investment, by itself, is insufficient in a highly dynamic global environment, so it is necessary to promote robust public-private partnership models .
“There are examples all over the world where public-private investment has worked well, regardless of one’s political perspective or bias, so I believe that these collaborative options can be found as long as we understand that we need each other,” he concluded.
Comment and follow us on X: @miroslavacs / @GrupoT21
