Overhaul’s figures show that 20,746 cargo thefts were recorded in Mexico in 2023, with the State of Mexico remaining the entity with the highest share at 27% of the total, though it had contributed 37% in 2022.
Since the beginning of 2024, Luis Villatoro, Director of Supply Chain Security & Intelligence LATAM at Overhaul, highlighted the risk of increasing theft in some entities and the need to address this situation. Puebla, in particular, could become the entity with the most cargo thefts.
According to Luis Villatoro, the shift to other entities is driven by intervention strategies in places like the State of Mexico, forcing gangs to operate in other areas. He notes increases in Puebla and Hidalgo, where a 19% rise in crimes was recorded up to April.
“When working with authorities and coordinating actions, as has happened in the State of Mexico, it is possible to reduce thefts in that area by collaborating with the National Guard. However, this results in shifts to areas like Tepeji del Río (Hidalgo) or even San Juan del Río (Querétaro),” Villatoro points out.
Using various tools, Overhaul can identify where criminal groups operate and their exit routes, such as the Mexico-Querétaro highway and the Arco Norte, which have seen significant increases in activity.
Activity can even be identified on roads near areas like Ecatepec, such as the 132, the 57, and the Mexiquense Outer Loop (CEM).
Through standard deviation ellipse models, it is possible to determine how far or close one is to crimes and calculate distances. “In the first standard deviation, you can approximate 68.3% of the incidents, but you can manage the data and plot other deviations to reach up to a 95% probability,” described Luis Villatoro.
This strategy can be combined with “clustering,” where kilometers and routes are mapped to identify physical activity and spatial coincidences. This helps develop intervention strategies to dismantle criminal groups.
Luis Villatoro identifies four types of repetition in his strategy: spatial, focused on specific areas; temporal, based on day and hour patterns; by product type, targeting “hot products”; and finally, by type of criminal gang.
