Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum is seeking to promote private investment, on the one hand, but on the other, the possible continuation of Andrés Manuel López Obrador’s agenda suggests otherwise, said Guillermo Ortiz , former Secretary of Finance and Public Credit (SHCP) and former Governor of the Bank of Mexico (Banxico) .
At the conference Global and National Economic Environment , he said that the reforms to the Judiciary and the disappearance of autonomous bodies have led to an “erosion” of the institutional framework, the consequences of which are only just beginning to be seen.
At the 2025 Economic Outlook Seminar of the Autonomous Technological Institute of Mexico (ITAM) , Ortiz indicated that it is necessary to make an adjustment in fiscal matters, and noted that social spending represents more than 30% of the spending made by the government, which leads to a downgrade and an increase in country risk.
“We have an unsustainable fiscal situation, in the sense that this year we are making a fiscal squeeze of about two points of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) by cutting expenses,” he said, before which he reiterated that we must look towards private investment and increase tax collection.
In relation to the United States, he said that the arrival of Donald Trumpcauses more uncertainty in Mexico, since the country will face the negotiations of the Treaty between Mexico, the United States and Canada (T-MEC) , scheduled for 2026, weakened by these reforms.
“Trump version 2.0 is Trump one, but corrected and augmented,” and among his proposals he speaks of territorial expansion, the use of force, as well as annexing Greenland, he recalled.
Organized crime , specifically fentanyl , as well as the issue of migration and security , are among the issues that Trump will put on the table in foreign policy with Mexico, and in the negotiation of the T-MEC, in the event of the imposition of tariffs .
“This presents risks, but also opportunities for Mexico to the extent that we reach cooperation agreements on security, on containing the expansion of the cartels. Effective cooperation with the United States in this area will be beneficial for Mexico,” Ortiz stressed.
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