Global trade is projected to reach a record $33 trillion in 2024, representing a 3.7% expansion or $ 1.2 trillion annual increase, the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) said , warning that while trade remains strong, uncertainty will be a factor in 2025 due to the global geopolitical and economic environment.
According to the latest World Trade Update , the organization noted that this growth was driven by services, which increased by 9% year-over-year and added $700 billion , accounting for nearly 60% of total growth. Meanwhile, trade in goods increased by 2% , contributing $500 billion .
In its analysis, the organization indicated that most regions registered positive growth, except for Europe and Central Asia.
“Growth varied by industry: agri-food, communications technology, and transportation saw increases, while energy, apparel, and extractive industries slowed due to weak demand and policy changes,” he noted.
UNCTAD noted that momentum slowed in the second half of the year. In the fourth quarter, trade in goods grew less than 0.5% and trade in services increased only 1%.
“Trade inflation approached zero as traded goods prices stabilized in the final quarter of 2024. The lingering effects of high post-pandemic inflation appear to have run their course,” he detailed.
In its report, the United Nations agency explained that in 2024, developing economies outperformed developed nations , with imports and exports increasing by 4% in the year and 2% in the fourth quarter, driven primarily by East and South Asia. Meanwhile, South-South trade expanded by 5% annually and 4% in the final quarter.
Meanwhile, trade in developed economies stagnated, “with imports and exports flat for the year and a 2% decline in the last quarter.”
At the start of 2025, trade has remained stable, but UNCTAD warned that rising geoeconomic tensions, protectionist policies, and trade disputes indicate likely disruptions ahead.
“The decline in shipping indices indicates weaker demand for manufactured goods, inputs, and raw materials as businesses adjust to rising uncertainty,” the analysis detailed.
The organization estimated that the challenge for this year is to avoid global fragmentation, in which nations form isolated trading blocs, while managing policy changes without undermining long-term growth.
As you may recall, US President Donald Trump has launched a tariff war with several countries. He imposed 25% tariffs on Mexico’s steel and aluminum exports to the United States, as well as other nations. Meanwhile, he has suspended tariffs of a similar rate for Mexican products covered by the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) until April 2.
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