The increase in the minimum wage that came into effect on January 1, 2026, represents progress for the purchasing power of workers; however, its impact must be analyzed with a regional perspective, particularly in the Northern Border Free Zone, where economic conditions differ from the rest of the country, warned Alfredo Valadez García, a researcher at the School of Administration and Business of CETYS University , Tijuana Campus.
Nationally, the minimum wage increased from 278.80 to 315.04 pesos per day, while in the border region it rose from 419.88 to 440.87 pesos per day, equivalent to just over 13,000 pesos per month. Although the adjustment in the border region was smaller in percentage terms, the expert pointed out that it should be interpreted in light of the socioeconomic context of states like Baja California, where extreme poverty levels are below the national average.
“The public debate often focuses on whether raising the minimum wage generates inflation, but recent evidence shows that the effects on prices have been marginal. The real challenge now is the sustainability of this policy in regions with high international integration, such as the northern border,” explained Valadez García.
The academic noted that, since 2018, the minimum wage in Mexico has registered real growth exceeding 100% without triggering an inflationary spiral , and has also contributed to poverty reduction, particularly in the period following the COVID-19 pandemic. However, he stressed that the analysis should be broadened to include a comparative international context.
Despite recent increases, Mexico continues to rank in the lower-middle range globally in terms of labor compensation. According to comparisons by organizations such as the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) , the country maintains average wages below most of its members and lags behind Latin American economies like Chile and Colombia when considering variables such as hourly wage and purchasing power. This gap, he stated, reflects that the wage challenge in Mexico is structural and cannot be resolved solely through increases in the minimum wage.
In this context, Valadez García warned that, although wage policy has shown positive effects, significant challenges remain . Among these, he cited the wide wage gap with the United States and Canada, the risk that rapid increases without parallel improvements in productivity could incentivize informality and negatively impact micro and small businesses, and the need to consider the political and trade environment, especially given the upcoming review of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) .
For Baja California, the specialist noted that the sustained reduction of extreme poverty in recent years suggests that the minimum wage has been an effective tool, although insufficient on its own.
“The challenge for the border region is not only to increase income, but to make it compatible with productivity, formality, and international competitiveness,” he pointed out.
He also argued that the increase in the minimum wage should be understood as part of a comprehensive economic strategy that takes into account regional particularities and prioritizes the balance between social welfare and long-term economic viability, especially in areas closely linked to international trade, such as the northern border.
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