The transfer of 29 drug traffickers to the United States on February 27 is a sign that the Mexican government remains firm in its commitment to secure the northern border and reduce drug trafficking, which was one of the agreements reached by both countries to stop for one month the 25% tariffs proposed by US President Donald Trump , and that if materialized, one of the first effects would be the depreciation of the peso .
This was the opinion of Jesús Carrillo , director of Economics at the Mexican Institute for Competitiveness (IMCO) , who indicated that these tariffs are being negotiated in conjunction with a multiple agenda on security and immigration.
On February 27, the Attorney General’s Office (FGR) and the Secretariat of Public Safety and Citizen Protection (SSPC) reported that 29 people who were being held in various penitentiary centers in Mexico were transferred to the United States and were wanted by the government of our northern neighbor for their links to criminal organizations for drug trafficking and other crimes. Among those transferred was Rafael Caro Quintero.
It is worth remembering that one of the commitments that Mexico assumed, which led to the suspension of the 25% tariffs on various Mexican products on February 3, was to send 10,000 members of the National Guard to the northern border in order to stop illegal migration and drug trafficking to the United States.
On reciprocal tariffs , the specialist explained that what Trump is saying is that he is going to take imbalances in terms of the Value Added Tax (VAT) as if it were a tariff and impose it in retaliation, “or that if other countries impose retaliatory measures then he is going to raise them more. I think what he simply means is that this is a tariff war.”
In this regard, Jesús Carrillo pointed out that the US president is threatening to use more force in terms of trade, which is why his response to other governments in the world always carries a charge of aggression.
If implemented, the impact of the tariffs scheduled for March 4 would be significant, since in 2024 alone, Mexico exported more than 600 billion dollars (mdd) to the entire world and 80% of that total went to the United States.
“We are talking about almost 500 billion dollars, for sure. So, first of all, the first thing that will happen is that the currency will depreciate, and if the currency depreciates, everything we import will be more expensive, so it can hit inflation,” he stressed.
Another implication is that economic activity will slow down because “products on that side of the border will also become more expensive and therefore consumers will demand less. If they demand less, then we have to produce less and it is a vicious circle,” he said in an interview with T21 .
Tariffs on steel and aluminum
Carrillo pointed out that the 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum imports by the United States include a long list of diverse products such as automotive parts, appliance parts, air conditioners, among others, particularly aluminum.
The tariff rate is expected to come into effect on March 12, after Donald Trump signed executive orders on this measure on February 10.
The specialist said that the impact could be greater, particularly for critical industries such as the automotive industry, which would affect at least 11 states in Mexico, including Coahuila, Querétaro and Nuevo León.
According to the National Institute of Statistics and Geography (Inegi) , the export of light vehicles manufactured in Mexico during January 2025 reached 219,414 units , and the United States was the main destination for exports with 83.6% (183,321 units) , followed by Canada with 21,707 cars.
According to IMCO, the imposition of tariffs on the products covered would impact 4.7% of total Mexican exports.
Jesús Carrillo said that there would also be impacts in the service and trade sectors, as well as consumption, entertainment, and “everything associated with employment in industries.”
Review of the USMCA
The imposition of tariffs violates Chapter 2 of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) , regarding national treatment and market access. One year after its review, Carrillo said, “it seems that everything will be brought forward.”
“Things are moving faster, but also, let’s say, outside of what is happening in the T-MEC. That is to say, this is already an ongoing dialogue, so I think this is a total impact,” he explained.
He pointed out that the tariffs affect the functioning of the trilateral trade agreement “and affect what will happen formally in 2026, or even if that is brought forward by decision of the parties, because everything also affects the T-MEC.”
According to the Ministry of Economy , the T-MEC is the best business that the region has had, since, among other figures, it employs 17 million people at the regional level , generates approximately 3.1 million dollars (mdd) per minute and represents 30% of the world GDP .
Regarding possible pressure from the US government for Mexico to impose tariffs on China, he said that the country must be clear that the United States is its main trading partner and that Mexico is part of the North American economic bloc .
“If in order to have that membership, we have to make some, I don’t mean concessions, but some actions to strengthen that bloc, I think Mexico should do it. I’m not saying all the tariffs that the United States suggests, or none at all, but simply seeing what tariffs or actions against China can be taken to strengthen our position in North America,” he concluded.
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