A climate of business caution and a modest growth rate have marked the Mexican economy during the administration of President Claudia Sheinbaum, according to economic analyst Pedro Tello.
In the framework of the conference X-ray of the first year of government , carried out by the National Association of Vehicle Tracking and Protection Companies (ANERPV) , Tello exemplified his analysis as if it were an airplane, where the economy depends on four turbines: consumption, productive investment, government spending and exports , of which three present important failures, which anticipates a complicated economic period.
“Three of our four engines aren’t working well. We’re a country that can grow at a faster pace, but we don’t currently have the capacity to do so,” he warned.
The specialist said that the consumption of goods and services, which he believes is the main driver of the Mexican economy, has lost momentum . In the first half of 2025, consumption declined by 0.5%, he noted.
Regarding the second driver, productive investment, Tello indicated that this indicator also showed signs of slowing . The first half of 2025 saw a 6.9% drop compared to the same period in 2024, according to data from the National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI) .
Tello described government spending, which represents the third driver, as unproductive, since net public sector spending has exceeded the amount approved by the legislature in recent years.
The fourth driver, exports, is the only one of the four that shows favorable results , according to Tello, with a total of 52.519 billion dollars (mdd) in August 2025. However, he indicated that the discrepancy between the trade surplus with the United States of 250.1 billion dollars in 2024, compared to a trade deficit with China of 119.9 billion dollars in the same period, means that Mexico is a “springboard” for Chinese products to the American Union.
Mexican tariffs
Regarding the tariffs the federal government plans to impose on more than 1,400 products from countries with which Mexico does not have trade agreements, Tello emphasized that it is part of a strategy to strengthen domestic production .
He clarified that this measure will not apply to inputs or intermediate goods, as the country lacks viable substitutes in the short term. A study conducted by four consulting firms revealed that it would take Mexico at least five years to replace just 25% of imported intermediate products , essential for key sectors such as the automotive and electronics industries.
The specialist noted that, although the decision points in the right direction, the pace of private investment stimulus is slow , hampered by the rise of organized crime and a fiscal environment that is causing caution among business leaders.
Tello believes that economic success will depend on Sheinbaum’s ability to establish strong relationships with entrepreneurs of all sizes , especially small and micro-businesses, who still lack the support needed to integrate into an environment of certainty that fosters investment and national well-being.
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