In light of Donald Trump’s return to his second term as President of the United States, Arturo Sarukhán, President of Sarukhán and Associates , warned of the critical challenges that the bilateral relationship will face, in which he notes that the first few years will be crucial, with immediate actions in trade, migration and security, including the imposition of tariffs, mass deportations and possible unilateral operations against fentanyl laboratories in Mexico.
Speaking at the 2025 Economic Outlook Seminar organized by the Autonomous Technological Institute of Mexico (ITAM) , Sarukhán stressed that the next four years will be critical, especially the first year, in which Trump will seek to measure the Mexican government’s response capacity through forceful actions.
As one of the main points to highlight, the specialist anticipated that the automotive and auto parts sector, as well as steel and aluminum, will be the first to face targeted tariffs , as part of a US reindustrialization strategy to repatriate investments.
According to Sarukhán, Mexico is not adequately prepared to face this challenge due to the lack of technical staff in the government following the administration of Andrés Manuel López Obrador.
“Today, neither the Mexican private sector nor the government are understanding this challenge properly,” he said.
On the other hand, Trump could intensify deportations of undocumented migrants , sending thousands to Mexico every month, even from third countries, which could overwhelm the capacities of Mexican municipalities and border states.
“He’s not going to deport the 11.2 million undocumented immigrants, but he’s going to release five, 10 or 15 thousand a month,” he said.
Regarding security, Sarukhán said that Trump could pressure the Mexican government to accept joint operations against fentanyl laboratories.
If cooperation is not forthcoming, he warned of the possibility of unilateral actions by the United States, such as drone attacks on Mexican territory.
The Chinese threat and the USMCA
The growing Chinese manufacturing presence in Mexico is viewed with concern by the United States, especially in strategic sectors such as telecommunications, energy and lithium batteries .
In this regard, Sarukhán stressed the importance of working together with Washington to prevent this from derailing the review of the Treaty between Mexico, the United States and Canada (T-MEC) in 2026.
“The Chinese manufacturing footprint in Mexico could be the Trojan Horse that contaminates the bilateral relationship,” he warned.
For this reason, Sarukhán presented a list of strategic actions that could help Mexico maintain a “healthy” relationship with its northern neighbor.
The expert mentioned that the country should not engage in public confrontations with Trump , in addition to rebuilding the capacities of the Mexican State, particularly in trade and migration.
On the other hand, Mexico must modernize its foreign policy and strengthen security cooperation and enhance diplomacy at the state level in the United States to strengthen alliances.
“If President Sheinbaum wants to avoid an earthquake in the bilateral relationship, she must make decisions that contravene even the legacies of the previous administration,” he said.
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