Agility , in collaboration with Transport Intelligence , released the Emerging Logistics Markets Index 2024 , in which Mexico climbed two positions and was placed in seventh place on the list with a score of 5.77 points; while China (8.58), India (6.94) and the United Arab Emirates (6.31) remained in the top 3.
This index examines four key areas for logistics market development: domestic logistics opportunities, international logistics opportunities, business fundamentals and digital readiness.
John Manners-Bell, CEO of Transport Intelligence, highlighted that “2024 could be remembered as a turning point in global politics and economics ”, as elections across regions led to significant changes in governments, with increased support for populist politicians and a backlash against globalist agendas, impacting international trade and supply chains.
“US importers and manufacturers continue to diversify their sources of supply, favouring economies in Southeast Asia and increasing cross-border trade with Mexico,” Manners-Bell said.
However, greater scrutiny is expected to prevent the Mexican market from functioning as a “back door” for Chinese products , after the re-election of Donald Trump to the presidency of the United States, which has revived threats of tariffs.
The survey of more than 550 industry professionals conducted by Transport Intelligence between October 2023 and December 2024 revealed a cautious outlook, with 54.6% of respondents anticipating a recession in 2025, an increase of five percentage points on the previous year, with persistent inflation, rising operating costs and uncertainty in global supply chains the main reasons for this concern.
According to the results, the logistics sector is in a period of recalibration , in which resilience is prioritized over efficiency.
To achieve this, companies are adopting strategies of offshoring, regionalisation and diversification , favouring regions such as Southeast Asia, India and Africa , but barriers to entry persist that hinder the full exploitation of these opportunities.
While China remains a key player, many companies are mitigating business and regulatory risks by partially decoupling from its economy.
The survey found that India is gaining prominence thanks to improvements in infrastructure and government incentives , although corruption and bureaucracy remain challenges, while the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) region , the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia lead with strong investments in infrastructure and human capital.
According to the results, logistics costs will also remain high over the next 12 months, due to factors such as inflation, labor shortages and the transition to renewable energy.
In addition, sustainability mandates are increasing the regulatory burden on logistics providers, which could accelerate investment in green technologies and green infrastructure solutions.
On the other hand, e-commerce remains a key driver in emerging markets, driving innovation in last-mile deliveries and digital tools , but rising protectionism and the imposition of tariffs could hamper operational efficiency and raise costs throughout the supply chain.
More than 80% of respondents believe that tariffs have a significant impact on their supply chain and the possible expansion of protectionist measures in 2025, especially in the United States under the Donald Trump administration, could accelerate the trend towards regionalization of production and sourcing.
Supply chain investment and reconfiguration
Investment flows show that North America, with 12.9%, is the main investment destination, benefiting from nearshoring , while Africa (9.9%) also experiences growth due to its improving infrastructure and the rise of e-commerce; Southeast Asia (4.9%) remains an alternative to China, and Latin America (2.7%) continues to consolidate its position in nearshoring to North America and Europe.
On the other hand, India (-31%) faces a net outflow of investment, attributed to high costs and regulatory hurdles, although its long-term attractiveness is expected to remain, while China (-2.7%) continues to lose investment as companies seek to diversify.
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