SAN PEDRO GARZA GARCÍA, NL – On the eve of the revision of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), Mexico must prepare for complex scenarios, whether the agreement is renewed or radically modified, according to experts on the Mexico-U.S. panel at the crossroads: USMCA, cross-border trade, and regional competitiveness.
At the kickoff of ETYL Monterrey 2025, organized by Grupo T21, experts mentioned that the key will be strengthening competitiveness, infrastructure, and digitalization to sustain regional integration.
Manuel Farías, an academic at the Autonomous University of Nuevo León (UANL) , opened the discussion by pointing out that the region is experiencing a critical juncture.
“We face two possible scenarios: maintaining the USMCA with adjustments or moving toward bilateral agreements. In either case, Mexico must strengthen its value proposition in cross-border trade,” he stated.
For his part, Humberto Treviño, an independent consultant for the Texas DOT , noted that ” the disappearance of the USMCA is not in sight, but rather a process of fragmentation . “
“The United States has turned trade into an instrument of foreign policy. We no longer talk about free trade, but rather about conditional trade. The challenge is for Mexico to prepare to compete under stricter and more selective rules,” he warned.
Treviño added that the security and migration agenda dominates the conversation in Washington, which could impact border operations and tariff policy.
“There will be pressure, especially on energy and environmental compliance issues, where the United States will demand greater traceability and corporate accountability,” he said.
For Emilio Cadena, CEO of Prodensa , the current context demands a rethinking of the regional development model, since “ nearshoring is not just about attracting factories; it’s about building an ecosystem .”
Cadena also highlighted the need for the country to have a proactive narrative toward the United States.
“We can’t keep waiting to see what Washington decides. Mexico must propose, it must lead. We have the talent, but we lack coordination,” he said.
From an operational perspective, Edward Habe, vice president of Sales and Service for Averitt Mexico , highlighted that the border has become a laboratory for logistics innovation.
“Today, the challenge is not just crossing quickly, but also crossing safely and with traceability. Digitalization and shared processes between customs are changing the way we do trade,” he explained.
Customs as a critical point
Augusto Canales, substitute customs broker and general manager of AR Canales , believes that Mexican customs is key to ensuring the continuity of trade in the face of any adjustments to the USMCA.
“We must view customs not as a barrier, but as a tool for competitiveness. If we can simplify processes and consolidate the role of the customs broker as a strategic ally, Mexico can maintain its regional leadership,” he asserted.
Canales emphasized that coordination with the United States is vital to avoid logistical disruptions, as the challenge is not only regulatory but also cultural and operational.
The panelists agreed that the USMCA—with or without modifications—will continue to be the fundamental framework for trade relations between Mexico and the United States. However, the country needs a comprehensive strategy that combines industrial policy, technological development, and a long-term vision.
“What’s at stake is not just a treaty, but the integration model that will define the future of North America. Mexico must demonstrate that it can be reliable, competitive, and resilient, even amid uncertainty,” said Manuel Farías.
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