As we enter 2025, Mexico faces a panorama marked by adjustments in economic policy, new security strategies, and the redefinition of its relationship with the United States and the rest of the world.
In the webinar Mexico 2025: Economic decisions in a changing context , organized by CETYS University , specialists analyzed the country’s economic outlook after the end of Andrés Manuel López Obrador ‘s six-year term and the beginning of a new political and commercial cycle.
Alfredo Valadez, research professor at CETYS University, highlighted that Mexico’s economic growth in the last six years was the lowest of recent administrations , with an average of 0.8% per year.
“With such low GDP growth, we cannot hope for much,” he said.
While the pandemic had a global impact on the economy, Valadez stressed that the country was already showing signs of stagnation before the health crisis.
In this context, Ignacio Casas, also a researcher at CETYS, emphasized that the global slowdown , particularly that of China, has influenced Mexico’s growth.
“The International Monetary Fund has forecast 1.5% growth for the country in 2024, well below the global 3.3%,” he said.
Another of the central themes of the webinar was inflation , which, although it has decreased, remains above the Bank of Mexico’s target.
Valadez addressed the country’s monetary policy , noting that the reference interest rate remains at 10 percent.
“It is a considerably higher rate than a few years ago, which makes credit more expensive and affects consumption,” he said.
Economic dependence on the United States
Foreign trade and relations with the United States were other key points in the discussion, so Casas warned that the country is highly vulnerable to the decisions of the US government , especially with the return of Donald Trump to the presidency.
“Trump will use Mexico’s commercial dependence as a tool of pressure on immigration and security issues,” he warned.
Mexico has reached record export figures, exceeding 600 billion dollars, but 80% of them depend on the US market.
“If we are talking about a trade war, there are no positive signs in the short term,” Casas added.
For his part, Flavio Olivieri, director of the Center of Excellence in Competitiveness and Entrepreneurship at CETYS, noted that, although there has been much talk about nearshoring , foreign direct investment (FDI) in Mexico is still mostly reinvestment by already established companies.
Regarding the future of nearshoring , Olivieri indicated that Mexico has opportunities in strategic sectors such as semiconductors, electromobility and artificial intelligence.
However, he stressed the need to strengthen infrastructure and ensure legal certainty to attract new investments.
The specialists agreed that Mexico faces a 2025 with great challenges , but also with opportunities.
The consolidation of nearshoring , improved energy infrastructure and integration with the North American economy could be key factors in driving growth, Olivieri said.
However, political uncertainty in the United States and the lack of structural reforms in Mexico remain significant obstacles.
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