Although the Mexican economy remains weak and the trade outlook shows no clear signs of improvement, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) estimated Mexico’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth of 1% by 2025.
This increase reflects a slight rebound in the international organization’s forecasts, which last July projected that the Mexican economy could grow 0.2% this year, despite the uncertainty generated by tariffs around the world.
“Fiscal consolidation, a continuing contractionary monetary policy, and trade tensions with the United States have impacted consumption and investment, while exports have proven resilient,” noted an IMF mission that visited Mexico at the end of last August.
Meanwhile, the IMF forecast better results for 2026. For the following year , Mexico’s GDP could grow 1.5% ; however, factors such as the tariff policy promoted by the United States will continue to impact global trade, affecting the country’s economy.
“Growth is expected to accelerate somewhat in 2026, although the impact of tariffs and trade uncertainty will continue to linger. Headline inflation is moderating and is expected to converge toward the Bank of Mexico’s (Banxico) 3% target in the second half of 2026,” he indicated.
It is worth remembering that Mexico’s GDP grew 0.6% in the second quarter of 2025 , driven mainly by the manufacturing and services industries , according to data from the National Institute of Statistics and Geography (Inegi) .
The IMF also estimated consumption growth, one of the driving forces of the Mexican economy, at 0.5% for this year. Meanwhile, it forecast a better outlook for 2026, projecting a 1.8% growth.
In this regard, the organization recommended expanding and diversifying trade alliances , which “would further strengthen Mexico’s position in global supply chains ,” it stated.
In the face of fiscal constraints , he argued that the country must address infrastructure gaps, particularly in the energy, transportation , telecommunications, and water sectors .
To mitigate the negative economic effects that persist worldwide, Mexico needs to “maintain trade openness to sustain growth and avoid measures such as import tariffs.”
“Given fiscal constraints, private sector participation will be critical, which will require improving the investment climate ,” the mission stated in its report.
Among other aspects, he recommended strengthening the rule of law and deepening integration with global trading partners.
Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum welcomed the IMF’s economic growth forecast of 0.2% to 1% for this year, which she said is a consequence of the strategy defined through Plan Mexico .
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