The manufacturing and logistics and distribution sectors will be key to relocation, attracting investments of 130 billion pesos (mdp) for the next three to five years, said Grupo Monex.
According to its analysis Nearshoring IV: Potential Sectors and Industries , of the total 88,400 million pesos, that is, 68% will be for manufacturing and 32% for logistics, that is, 41,600 million pesos for the second.
“To trigger these investments, favorable economic conditions, infrastructure and post-electoral stability will be key,” the report noted.
He explained that for these sectors he identified three stages: origin, causality and triggers of nearshoring , as well as the publication of investment intentions; and the materialization and implications of the expected announcements in the medium and long term.
In this sense, he estimated that the second stage is already being carried out and by the end of 2024 the transition to the third phase could begin , although both will be key to expecting a greater number of companies within Tier 1 (T1) and Tier 2 (T2), the former are companies responsible for the manufacturing of main and high-level components, while T2 are suppliers to T1. “The value that relocation could trigger will be in the greater volume of companies in these categories, key pieces for various production chains.”
In this way, he mentioned in Mexico, both manufacturing and nearshoring related to logistics have responded to the attraction of consumption, consolidating itself as a key process and storage center to meet domestic and external demand.
However, he considered that the global and local attractiveness towards a medium-term horizon (3 to 5 years) will focus on the viability factors of the possible investment announcements, on meeting the demand for energy (infrastructure and transmission) for the settlement of new companies, a clean energy policy that encourages the arrival of foreign companies, the investment of roads for the transport of goods, public safety, particularly for the transit of goods and in their facilities and the sufficient supply of water for the industrial spaces.
He recalled that since February of last year the country has consolidated itself as the main trading partner of the United States , displacing China, this because Mexico is characterized by the low cost and specialization of its labor force.
He said that this level stands out for being a strategic integrator of OEM (Original Equipment Manufacturer) companies. Motor vehicles are positioned as the sector with the greatest participation in this level of the production chain, followed by electronics and machinery and tools. In this context, some companies within T2 have positioned themselves as certification potential to be direct manufacturers, and not just specialized suppliers.
“If this escalation materializes, we estimate that Q1 will obtain a market consolidation of 41% of the total nearshoring demand, a factor that will be important to make Mexico more competitive against the new manufacturing powers (Taiwan, South Korea and Vietnam). The main industries for this scenario are: automotive, energy, beverages and food, aluminum and plastic, electrical and more,” he said.
While in the midst of a dynamic panorama, he pointed out that the contribution of T2 companies is key within the supply chain and capital formation, in order to sustain the increase in the demand for goods abroad and domestically. Therefore, he estimated a market consolidation of 28% of the total nearshoring demand .
In this sense, he explained that the used capacity of industrial parks remains at high levels, 75% of the companies in these properties are dedicated to manufacturing and logistics, while 12% of these are related to transportation activities. and distribution of goods.
“So the incorporation of specialized suppliers will be essential for the growth of T2 (T1 suppliers). Speaking of real estate, this sector has been the most active in terms of developments to serve new companies (those from China stand out), ”he stated.
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