The review of the Treaty between Mexico, the United States and Canada (T-MEC), expected in 2026, is the subject of uncertainty about whether negotiators will sit down to review or renegotiate the treaty, but specialists have mentioned that it is only a matter of a review, however, Mexico has to be prepared and resolve some challenges.
In the panel Review of the T-MEC 2026, crucial for the Mexican economy. What are the areas of opportunity and risk under the current context of North America? Within the framework of CanCham Day 2024 , Gustavo Almaraz, executive president of Grupo Economía Política , moderator of the panel, mentioned that if something could derail the review of the T- MEC would be a political issue.
There is uncertainty since the three countries will reach this review with new administrations , while Mexico already has an elected president, it is not known what direction US policy will take, in addition to the fact that Canada will also change its leader.
In this context, Kenneth Smith, partner at AGON , highlighted that, in the case of the United States elections, regardless of who wins, it will be a complicated scenario, since “ the internal pressure in the United States and public opinion do not is in favor of free trade as they are not in favor of migration or labor mobility .”
However, he assured that there is a great opportunity in 2026, so if things are done well, a signal will be sent that economic integration in North America must be strengthened .
Along these lines, Gustavo Almaraz added that the three countries arrive with faults in the treaty, however, Smith explained that there is no need to reopen the treaty or call it renegotiation , since there are many things that can be achieved to face the challenges, for example. For example, conflicts such as that over Chinese steel and aluminum that have called into question Mexican exports of these products.
“Conditions must be created where we completely eliminate the barriers between the three countries, that is, unity is strength, but for us we become the most competitive region in the world. Let’s stop hitting each other on steel and aluminum between Mexico and the United States; Let’s solve the dairy and softwood disputes between the United States and Canada, that is, clear the table of trade disputes within North America and put the accelerator on deeper integration,” expressed Kenneth Smith.
In this sense, Valeria Moy, general director of the Mexican Institute for Competitiveness (IMCO) , said that to promote integration we must think as a region and arrive with that chip at the review.
Mexico, slowing down?
The day before, the National Institute of Statistics and Geography (Inegi) announced that the Mexican economy continues to slow down, growing only 1%, with information for the second quarter of the year.
In this context, Valeria Moy highlighted that compared to the 3% growth of the United States, Mexico is facing a significantly slower growth scenario than its main trading partner.
“When the American economy, which is the largest economy in the world, grows at 3% and the economy that is its main trading partner, which is an emerging economy, grows at 1%, I do believe that it is the sign of a very slowdown. clear and it would be a mistake not to see it,” he assured.
Ken Smith added that it is not enough to have broad trade liberalization like Mexico has to achieve the levels of development that the country requires and “that is where the trade liberalization process has to go hand in hand with a comprehensive development program in our country, of regional development, of trying to close the gaps between the north and the south.”
In this sense, the specialists explained that Mexico faces many challenges in the face of the wave of nearshoring , which involves a lot of work at the national level, at the level of government, private sector, academia and other civil society groups, to correct this situation and that , in turn, the benefits of the T-MEC can be fully taken advantage of.
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