The Mexican economy could grow 0.2% this year, despite the uncertainty generated by tariffs around the world, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) estimated in its World Economic Outlook (WEO) update published Tuesday.
According to the analysis, this increase represents a 0.5% increase compared to its previous report in April, when it estimated that Mexico’s economy would contract 0.3%.
The report indicated that Mexico’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) would also show positive signs for 2026, with a projected growth of 1.4 percent .
In the Latin American and Caribbean region , the international organization forecast economic growth of 2.2% for this year, 0.2 percentage points higher than anticipated in April.
By 2026, the International Monetary Fund expects the situation in the region to improve, and has therefore anticipated a 2.4 percent increase in GDP.
The forecast for advanced economies is for growth of 1.9% for 2025 and 1.6% for 2026.
The United States is expected to be the best performer in this area, with a projected 1.9% increase for this year and 2% for 2026.
“In the United States, real GDP declined at an annualized rate of 0.5%, marking the first quarterly contraction in three years. Consumer spending increased by just 0.5%, but this comes after posting very rapid 4% growth in the fourth quarter of 2024,” the document detailed.
Furthermore, global growth rates are projected at 3% in 2025 and 3.1% in 2026, an upward revision from the estimates in last April’s edition of the report.
“Global growth is expected to slow as the apparent resilience stemming from trade distortions is waning. The forecasts of 3.0% for 2025 and 3.1% for 2026 are below the 3.3% observed in 2024 and the pre-COVID-19 historical average of 3.7%, but are higher than the April baseline forecast,” the report noted.
The agency stated that this was due to the advance of imports before the tariff increases, as well as lower effective tariff rates , improved financial conditions, and fiscal expansion in some important jurisdictions.
Meanwhile, in terms of global trade volume , the IMF estimated a 0.9 percentage point increase in 2025 and a 0.6 percentage point decrease in 2026.
“The short-term momentum from the frontloading of certain trade flows is expected to dissipate in the second half of 2025 due to heightened trade policy uncertainty and the prospect of increased trade restrictions, with consequences expected to materialize throughout 2026,” the report stated.
The IMF explained that the outlook continues to be affected by the potential increase in tariffs , increased uncertainty, and geopolitical tensions. “Restoring confidence, predictability, and sustainability remains a top policy priority,” it emphasized.
The organization warned that, despite a better balance sheet, “geopolitical tensions could disrupt global supply chains and increase commodity prices.”
It’s worth remembering that the United States has launched a global tariff war by levying taxes on various products imported into the United States, which affects Mexico, one of its main trading partners.
Mexico, like other countries, is waiting to reach an agreement with the United States on tariffs to avoid the 30% tariff that the United States announced to the Mexican government in a letter on July 12, and which would be implemented on August 1.
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