External factors such as the tariff war and internal factors such as uncertainty over the reform of the judiciary could cause a contraction of Mexico’s economy during the second quarter of 2025, warned the Mexican Institute of Finance Executives (IMEF) .
According to an analysis by that organization, there is a likelihood that Mexican economic growth will fall into negative figures during that period.
Although there is a deferral in the application of tariffs to Mexico compared to other countries, the IMEF pointed out that Mexican products exported have a higher effective rate than those imposed on other nations such as Canada and Brazil.
According to the report, Mexico is also facing deteriorating expectations due to the closure of the U.S. border to Mexican livestock due to the spread of the screwworm, an issue on which “the federal government has not acted effectively.”
“This problem puts more than $1.3 billion in cattle exports to the neighboring country at risk,” he stressed.
Regarding this case, it is worth remembering that the United States government suspended the importation of Mexican cattle for 15 days, to which Julio Berdegué , head of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development (Sader) , said that Mexico has carried out all the actions agreed upon with its counterpart from its northern neighbor, Brooke Rollins , to combat the screwworm plague in the country.
Regarding job creation, the Mexican Social Security Institute (IMSS) estimated 200,000 new jobs by 2025. “However, the Mexican Social Security Institute (IMSS) announced on May 5 that only 43,500 new jobs had been created in the last 12 months, indicating that this sector will experience significant decline in the immediate future,” the agency explained.
The IMEF’s forecasts are in line with those of the World Bank (WB) , which lowered its economic growth expectations for Mexico from 1.5% to 0% for this year due to a complicated external environment driven by various factors such as the escalation of US tariffs on imported products.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) also estimated a 0.3% contraction in Mexico’s GDP, which could lead to a recession in the country by 2025.
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