In 2026, airlines could earn $41 billion , 3.7% more than estimated; however, bottlenecks in aircraft availability will persist, one of the most significant limitations to the industry’s growth, the International Air Transport Association (IATA) predicted .
“Airlines are expected to generate a net margin of 3.9% and a profit of $41 billion in 2026. This is very welcome news given the headwinds facing the industry: rising bottleneck costs, geopolitical conflicts, sluggish global trade, and regulatory burdens, among others. Airlines have managed to build resilience in absorbing shocks to their businesses, which is delivering stable profitability,” said Willie Walsh, IATA’s Director General.
According to its most recent analysis of the global outlook, it reiterated that the expected net profit will be greater than the $39.5 billion of 2025, setting a new record .
It also anticipates that load factors will continue to reach record highs, with airlines expected to fill 83.8% of all seats during 2026.
He projected that cargo volumes will reach 71.6 million tons next year , representing a 2.4% increase compared to 2025. In this regard, he explained that the performance of this segment is “especially interesting”.
“ The resilience of air cargo has been especially impressive . As trade flows adapt to a protectionist tariff regime in the United States, air freight has been the hero of global trade , driven in part by robust e-commerce and semiconductor shipments that support the surge in artificial intelligence (AI) investments. The critical role of air cargo is in the spotlight as the global economy adjusts to new realities,” Walsh said.
Regarding supply chain challenges , he indicated that they continue to limit airlines’ ability to meet consumer demand for air transport, although some improvements are expected for next year, the backlog in aircraft orders will continue to grow.
High load factors and stable performance are partly attributed to supply chain issues. However, the limiting impact of these challenges on growth remains a drag on airline profitability, the executive noted.
Although new aircraft deliveries began to increase in late 2025 and production is expected to ramp up in 2026, demand is projected to outpace aircraft and engine availability. Normalizing the structural mismatch between airline requirements and production capacity is unlikely before 2031–2034, due to irreversible losses in deliveries over the past five years and a record order backlog.
“Airlines are feeling the impact of aerospace supply chain challenges across their entire business. The biggest challenges are high leasing costs, reduced schedule flexibility, delays in sustainability progress, and increased reliance on suboptimal aircraft types. Airlines are missing opportunities to strengthen their commercial revenue, improve their environmental performance, and better serve customers,” explained Willie Walsh.
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