Due to increased tariffs and political uncertainty worldwide, which is impacting cargo activity and complicating investment decisions, Fitch Ratings estimated that the outlook for seaports in North America and Europe, Middle East and Africa (EMEA) will be “deteriorating” by 2026 .
The rating agency detailed that, in North America, ports are facing disruptions due to policy changes.
“Fitch expects nominal declines in 2026 volumes amid low GDP growth and an adverse tariff environment. A temporary de-escalation between the United States and China offers limited relief,” the international organization explained in its analysis.
Higher US tariffs on construction raw materials may increase capital input costs or delay projects, although cruises provide some compensation, but remain sensitive to consumer confidence.
The study noted that the “deteriorated” outlook for EMEA reflects Fitch’s expectations of modest or stagnant maritime trade as higher tariffs take effect .
“We expect eurozone GDP growth to be around 1.3% in 2026. The long-term trade trajectory between the United States and China is the key uncertainty in our outlook,” he said.
Meanwhile, European operators face divergent volume trajectories and “softer” trading conditions.
Current security risks in the Red Sea and the Suez Canal, as well as sanctions-driven diversion, are reshaping flows, with uneven trends in the Mediterranean and Northern Europe.
“Capacity additions in Antwerp and Rotterdam, as well as the expansion of Mersin in Turkey and Limak in 2027, are aimed at easing tensions after near-maximum utilization in 2025 and labor-related delays,” the report detailed.
The outlook for seaports in Asia-Pacific (APAC) and Latin America is “neutral” , reflecting a relatively resilient regional dynamic.
“In APAC, volumes are cushioned by strong intraregional activity, while recent trade agreements with the United States have reduced uncertainty for exporters,” he noted.
In Latin America, maritime trade remains resilient, supported by strategic trade routes and increased agricultural exports, and the performance of seaports is expected to extend the recovery beyond 2025, despite tariff and geopolitical challenges.
Fitch’s estimates maintain a cautious outlook for North America and EMEA, with deteriorating sectoral prospects.
Comment and follow us on X: @GrupoT21
