The Eternity Asia Index (EAX), a benchmark indicator of ocean freight rates on the Asia-Mexico and West Coast of South America (WCSA) route, closed July 2025 at $2,306 per 40-foot container (FEU) , a figure that represents a contraction of 40.72% compared to the previous month. This is the most pronounced adjustment so far this year and highlights an anomaly: the decline in rates at the start of the peak season .
By the first seven months of 2025, Mexican Pacific ports had received a total of one million 557 thousand 471 20-foot import containers (TEU) , a maritime standardization measure, which barely meant an increase of 0.3% compared to the same period last year, according to statistics from the General Coordination of Ports and Merchant Marine (CGPMM) .
The market’s weakness is due to structural and cyclical factors. On the one hand, the US-led tariff war is keeping pressure on the region’s trade flows, while uncertainty over Mexico’s fragile economy has dampened demand for maritime space. In contrast to previous years, when summer demand marked the peak of the cycle, today the market faces a contractionary and volatile outlook .
Faced with this situation, shipowners have responded with capacity adjustments for August, aiming to maintain rates above $2,500 per FEU. However, the reduction in services comes at a cost to shippers: potential delays of between seven and 14 days in arrivals at Mexican ports, particularly in Manzanillo, where wait times have increased by 18% , according to Eternity Group Mexico, author of the EAX index.
This strategy highlights the tension between shipping companies, seeking to preserve revenue, and importers, facing disruptions in their supply chains.
The problem is worsening globally. According to Alphaliner , 95,000 TEUs of new capacity were added to the global fleet in July , with MSC leading the way with the addition of 66,000 TEUs. This increase, equivalent to 4% of global capacity, has reinforced oversupply in a context of weakened demand, intensifying downward pressure on rates.
The consequence is an increasingly unpredictable market for Mexican importers, who must rethink their logistics strategies. Eternity Group recommends three lines of action: advance booking planning with at least four weeks’ margin; flexible inventory management to cushion schedule disruptions; and constant monitoring of indicators such as the EAX and the Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI).
The collapse of the EAX in July not only reflects a temporary setback, but also the structural fragility of the maritime market: excess capacity, economic slowdown, and competition between shipping companies that, far from benefiting Mexican foreign trade, threatens to increase delivery times and increase uncertainty in supply chains .
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