Recent events in Venezuela, marked by political turmoil with the United States, have raised concerns in international energy markets, whose tension over oil could be reflected in a surge in fuel prices. However, in Mexico, the impact would be, for now, “moderate ,” since the country has a greater relationship in this area with its northern neighbor than with the South American nation, so the inflationary risk for Mexican households remains contained in the short term .
“For Mexican consumers, the impact could be even more indirect. Mexico imports a significant portion of the gasoline it consumes, primarily from the United States—between 49% and 72% of its total imports, according to recent reports from the Ministry of Energy (Sener) and Petróleos Mexicanos (Pemex) . Therefore, the final price depends more on the U.S. energy market, the exchange rate, and domestic fiscal policy than on the situation in Venezuela,” explained Said Romero López, coordinator of the Bachelor’s Degree in Logistics and International Trade at CETYS University , Tijuana Campus.
According to official statistics, Mexico imports approximately 400,000 to 600,000 barrels of refined products (gasoline) daily to meet its domestic demand.
Meanwhile, according to Pemex, crude oil production reached over 1.641 million barrels per day in November 2025 alone. In the same month last year, the Mexican state-owned company produced over 412,000 barrels per day of gasoline, 45,000 barrels per day of jet fuel (used in aircraft), and over 280,000 barrels per day of diesel.
In an interview with T21, Said Romero stated that as long as there is no significant disruption in the global oil supply, no immediate pressure on gasoline prices at Mexican service stations is anticipated . He added that, in terms of consumption, this means that households and businesses in Mexico would not face, in the short term, increases directly resulting from the events in Venezuela .
“Any deeper economic impact would only occur if the crisis produced structural changes in the global energy market, a scenario that, according to specialists, is more in the medium term and depends on broader geopolitical decisions,” he reiterated.
Oil and refined product production in the United States, as well as binational infrastructure and Mexico’s diversified suppliers, reduce exposure to isolated external shocks, so the inflationary risks associated with the current Venezuelan situation are contained and do not directly translate into higher prices for consumers .
Despite this, Said Romero indicated that the geopolitical environment must be kept under surveillance for the medium term , “if it is combined with other elements related to changes in energy policies or greater volatility in global markets.”
He emphasized that no immediate inflationary pressures are anticipated due to the situation in Venezuela , although if the situation escalates it could cause a rise in international oil prices, with gradual “second round” effects, with higher transportation costs that would be reflected in the final prices of goods and services .
Although the South American country holds the largest crude oil reserves, its limited production capacity reduces its real influence on global supply and international prices.
Venezuela has the world’s largest proven crude oil reserves, with more than 303 billion barrels , surpassing even Saudi Arabia, according to the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) .
What about logistics and supply chains?
In the logistics and freight transport sector, the situation is being viewed with caution . Venezuela is not a key fuel supplier for Mexico, which decouples national supply chains from the fluctuations in the South American country. However, this industry is highly sensitive to energy price volatility .
According to Said Romero, the current relationship between the United States and Venezuela functions more as a factor of “geopolitical noise” than as an immediate trigger of economic disruptions related to the logistical environment in the United States and Mexico.
“For our country, whose logistical and energy integration with the United States is of great importance, transportation costs, fuel supplies, and the stability of supply chains depend much more on the performance of the U.S. market than on events in Venezuela,” he pointed out.
He noted that a prolonged period of uncertainty could drive up operating costs, specifically for freight transport and export-oriented manufacturing . “If these increases persist, the pass-through to final prices could gradually erode purchasing power.”
The real challenge for Mexico is not the physical supply of energy, but preserving macroeconomic stability and strengthening logistical integration with the United States, Romero López concluded.
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