By Karina Quintero and Humberto Cruz
Following the attacks on three key Iranian nuclear facilities last Saturday by the United States , and the ongoing war between Israel and Iran , geopolitical tensions have escalated in various areas, such as the maritime transport of goods and oil, which, according to analysts, could cause impacts on global trade , with a possible closure of one of the most important routes in the region, the Strait of Hormuz , which would mean another strong disruption that would be added to the tariffs.
Carlos Martner , coordinator of Integrated Transportation and Logistics at the Mexican Institute of Transportation (IMT) , said that this maritime route is of great importance since approximately 20% of the world’s oil and petroleum derivatives trade passes through it.
Furthermore, the Strait of Hormuz is an entry point to countries that are prominent in the production of this hydrocarbon and borders the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Oman, Saudi Arabia, and Iran.
But beyond the impact on oil prices, which would increase the cost of crude oil if the canal were to close, there are other large-scale maritime flows, including containerized cargo, the specialist explained to T21 .
“For example, we have enormous ports, especially the largest, which is precisely Dubai Ports, a container terminal company that is very large worldwide and has its headquarters in the port called Jebel Ali, in the United Arab Emirates, and which annually moves some 15 million 20-foot containers (TEU), and to put its importance into perspective, it is more than the containerized cargo that all Mexican ports combined move annually,” he specified.
According to statistics from the General Coordination of Ports and Merchant Marine (CGPMM) , belonging to the Ministry of the Navy (Semar) , ports in Mexico ended 2024 with the record of nine million 375 thousand 570 TEUs operated , which meant a growth of 12% compared to a year earlier and the first time that this figure was reached.
Martner explained that manufactured goods moved in containers related to the automotive and electronics industries, as well as consumer goods from various countries, including China, India, and the United States, which are traded in this region, pass through the Strait of Hormuz.
“Of course, a closure of the strait would be very bad; it would be another major disruption, something we already have enough of with tariffs and the like. And on the other side is the Red Sea, where there’s also a disruption for all the ships coming from the Far East and heading to Europe that cross through the Suez Canal,” he pointed out.
The specialist considered that if a closure were to occur, it would be temporary and would not last long, since in addition to the rise in oil prices, there would also be an increase in the cost of maritime freight .
He also stressed that this would even harm economies that are not considered enemies by Iranians, and would also reinforce the threat of a possible global recession .
“It would also, in some ways, harm economies like India and China, which receive the oil produced in these countries and are also major exporters of products to Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, and Saudi Arabia,” he emphasized.
In the case of Mexico, Carlos Martner noted that the country does not have very strong trade with nations in the Far East, although this would generate inflationary pressures , and he considered that the repercussions would be rather global.
He indicated that the possible closure of the Strait of Hormuz would also have an impact on the Middle East, since container and oil ships enter through that route, which would immobilize part of the fleet that circulates through that area .
It’s worth remembering that, following the attacks on Iran, the parliament of this Middle Eastern country approved the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which, at its narrowest point, separates Oman from Iran by nearly 30 kilometers. However, the final decision will be made by the Supreme National Security Council.
Given this situation, the United States has asked China to prevent Iran from closing the strait, which has two maritime lanes, each just three kilometers long, and connects the Persian Gulf with the Arabian Sea.
Impact on fuels
In the specific case of fuels , the implications of a possible closure, even partial, of the Strait of Hormuz raised alarm bells in the international market .
“The truce in the so-called ’12-day war’ has temporarily reduced tension in the Middle East , but the latent risk of disruption to maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, one of the key points of global energy trade , persists ,” according to Marcial Díaz , of QUA Energy and a consultant in the energy sector.
He explained that approximately 20% of the world’s oil , some 17 million barrels per day, transits through this route, in addition to key volumes of liquefied natural gas (LNG) , particularly from Qatar .
And although the temporary ceasefire has brought some calm, “the possibility of sporadic attacks or partial closures keeps the international market on alert,” Díaz explained.
From their perspective, the most immediate impacts on the hydrocarbon market would be the rise in the price of Brent crude and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) for speculative reasons, as well as a rise in the price of LNG and its derivatives.
“A partial closure of the Strait could increase the price of a barrel by $8 to $15; a complete closure could push Brent oil above $120, depending on the duration of the conflict,” Díaz warned.
Although Mexico does not import crude oil directly from the Persian Gulf , its dependence on international benchmarks makes it particularly vulnerable in terms of prices.
“Mexico imports more than 72% of the gasoline it consumes, primarily from the United States. Although it doesn’t purchase crude oil from the Persian Gulf, prices are set globally,” he explained.
In that sense, a rise in Brent or WTI prices would also end up making refined products more expensive . “This affects the costs of Petróleos Mexicanos (Pemex) , private importers , and service stations ,” he added.
And while there are fiscal mechanisms to contain these increases, such as the Special Tax on Production and Services (IEPS) , its application could generate other pressures.
“If the government maintains the IEPS incentives in the face of an international increase, there will be additional fiscal pressure,” Díaz said.
Regarding supply , Díaz was clear: no immediate risk is anticipated, unless a global-scale logistical disruption occurs . However, he did emphasize that ” strategic inventories in Mexico, both public and private, are limited, averaging three to five days of national coverage.”
Regarding how energy sector companies are preparing for these types of scenarios, the analyst indicated that a series of measures are already underway: “They are using price hedging , early supply contracts, logistics diversification with longer or safer routes, and strengthening strategic inventories, especially in high-demand areas.”
He also added that some companies are reviewing their short-term and ocean freight contracts to include force majeure or rerouting clauses.
The most likely scenario, according to Díaz’s analysis, would be a partial impact : temporarily halted traffic, stricter inspections, threats, or even targeted attacks, without a total lockdown.
“That would put Brent oil prices in the $90 to $100 per barrel range and force a temporary reconfiguration of routes , without a global supply collapse,” Díaz said.
Although Mexico’s energy supply chain is not directly connected to that region, the country is not immune to the impact.
“ Rising consumer prices , increased pressure on fiscal incentives for the IEPS (Tax Expenditure) , possible adjustments to energy and trade policy, especially in refining and imports , and the need for ongoing monitoring of inventories, coverage, and logistics,” Díaz listed as the main effects for Mexico.
(Main image source: Wikipedia).
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