According to data from the Mexican Online Sales Association (AMVO) , El Buen Fin 2025 could exceed 200 billion pesos (mdp) in sales , which would mean a 16% increase compared to the 2024 edition.
Under this context, and due to the increased volume of merchandise movement due to the proximity of the El Buen Fin sales season, cargo thefts on highways and distribution centers regularly register a seasonal increase that can fluctuate between 10% and 17% , explained Luis Villatoro, president of the National Association of Vehicle Tracking and Protection Companies (ANERPV) .
“The increase in criminal activity is expected these days, as has happened seasonally in previous sales seasons for El Buen Fin and December sales, although it should be noted that the trend reverses once the period is over, which on this occasion will extend for five days and will end on November 17,” he explained.
Electronic equipment, clothing, footwear, and household appliances are among the products most sought after by criminals during that season.
The head of ANERPV stressed that the increased movement of goods these days towards warehouses, shopping centers and points of sale generates a temporary spike in the incidence of these crimes, including in last mile operations of delivery vehicles and not only on highways.
After El Buen Fin, that is, from November 17, “there is a momentary decrease and then a new spike in robberies that extends until mid-December, when all the merchandise has already been delivered to the stores and shopping centers for the end-of-year sales.”
Villatoro highlighted the coordination with federal authorities, which has made it possible to tackle cargo theft on highways; however, he acknowledged that greater involvement from some states and municipalities is needed to achieve better results.
According to information from the analysis ” Cargo Thefts in El Buen Fin: What You Need to Know ,” conducted by Overhaul , it is estimated that the highways that will possibly show the greatest risk are the Mexico-Veracruz highway with 14%, Mexico-Saltillo with 11%, Mexico-Pachuca with 7%, Arco Norte with 6%, Circuito Exterior Mexiquense with 4%, Avenida Jesús Reyes Heroles with 3%, and Atlacomulco-Zapotlanejo with 2%.
Regarding the timing patterns during El Buen Fin, the study stated that 73% of robberies are projected to occur between Tuesday and Friday , while the most vulnerable times would be between 4:00 and 8:00 a.m. with 27% of the incident, as well as between 7:00 p.m. and 11:00 p.m. with 25 percent.
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